Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150608 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 108 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure exits overnight. Low pressure drags a warm front through Monday morning, and then a cold front Monday night. Arctic air mid week. Turning milder for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 105 AM Monday... Tentatively expanded chance PoPs for snow across the middle Ohio Valley and northern WV Monday morning, as a warm front pushes through. This change is under further review for the Monday morning package, but an SPS may be needed for light snow sticking quickly on the cold surfaces. The forecast is otherwise largely on track. Also still monitoring the ice jam behavior along the Muskingum from Stockport to Beverly. As of 905 PM Sunday... Temperatures are challenging for the overnight with the high clouds moving through ahead of the warm front. Should keep the temperatures from bottoming out too far, especially in southeast Ohio tonight. As of 100 PM Sunday... High pressure retreats into New England tonight, giving way to developing sw flow aloft ahead of the next system. Expect temps to fall quickly this evening, especially over the deeper snowpack across southeast Ohio. Meanwhile, mid deck will be rapidly approaching from the west and southwest, ahead of an amplifying upper level system. This will probably allow temps to level off, especially combined with the increase in low level moisture ahead of developing warm front late. Weak isentropic lift should allow an area of light snow to break out across the Ohio Valley during the predawn hours and clip portions of southeast Ohio. Given how dry the low level airmass, much of this may fall as virga, though do expect some flurries/light snow for a time early Monday morning, perhaps as far south as the Kentucky counties. The warm front quickly shifts into western Pennsylvania, allowing for a brief lull. The upper level system and associated frontal boundary will gradually pivot southeast Ohio heading into the afternoon, allowing light snow to overspread that area. Used a blend of NAM/GFS for qpf which yields 1 to 2 inches by 00Z across Perry County with a few tenths across the remainder Ohio counties. Elsewhere, expect a decent rebound in temps during the afternoon, with upper 30s to perhaps lower 40s across the Coal Fields and up along the I79 corridor. Perry County may eventually need an advisory, but given how marginal the amounts are and the fact most of the accumulation would be Monday afternoon, elected to punt for this package.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday... A cold front will push through the region Monday night and stall just east of the area. This will leave moisture over the region as a weak wave moves up the front. This will provide periods of snow Monday night through Tuesday night with several inches possible. Think that some winter weather advisories will be needed, but concerned with how much the models moved the main axis from Saturday`s runs. Therefore will hold off for now. Some upslope snow may linger into Wednesday behind the system, but will battle the drier arctic air. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 455 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will build in Wednesday night and Thursday. As this high shifts eastward later in the week, expect moderating temperatures. A system will approach the area toward the end of the weekend, with some rain showers possible in advance of this system. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 105 AM Monday... A low pressure system approaches this area this period. its warm front may bring snow to the middle Ohio Valley Monday morning. This is most likely at PKB, indicated via a TEMP group 12Z-15Z Monday for MVFR ceiling and visibility on light snow. CRW and PKB also has a TEMPO group for MVFR stratocu and 6SM in light snow. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected later today in the warm sector of the system. This will get temperatures above freezing Monday all locations, except, perhaps for PKB. As the cold front associated with this system approaches Monday night, snow will become likely again in the middle Ohio Valley, and have IFR starting almost abruptly near 02Z Tuesday, and MVFR at HTS at 05Z. Surface flow overnight will be southeast and gusty on the ridges, otherwise light east to southeast, becoming light south throughout the area Monday, and then veering to light southwest across much of the lowlands Monday night. Light south flow aloft overnight into Monday morning, will become moderate southwest for Monday afternoon and night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief IFR possible at PKB in snow Monday morning. MVFR or even brief IFR visibility in snow may also occur at HTS, CRW and CKB Monday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 01/15/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR likely in snow Monday night into Tuesday night, and possibly lingering into Wednesday in the mountains, mostly in the wake of a cold front that crosses Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM

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