Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201807 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary over the area will drift slowly the north today. A stronger cold front crosses from the west Sunday night with high pressure moving in behind it by Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1130 AM Saturday... Made a few tweaks to the sky, pop and wx grids to account for clearing and convection firing over Ohio. Otherwise, rest of forecast package on track. Previous discussion... Cold front continues to slowly drift to the south this morning. This front will eventually stall across Central West Virginia and then start to slowly lift northward this afternoon and evening. Generally the front will be nearly stationary for most of the day. Similar to yesterday, much uncertainty exists with today`s forecast. Again we are looking at a high Cape and low shear day, with generally isolated thunderstorms possible in the warm sector through the day today, as upper level ridge keeps the midlevels quite dry and capped through much of the day. However, later this afternoon the flow will shift to southerly and the front will finally start to drift north again. Convection will likely develop to our west/southwest and move along this boundary this evening. Would expect something similar to what we saw last night, but this time the line of convection may not make it too far east of the Ohio River Valley. PWATs will be high again this evening and with yesterday`s convection flash flood guidance values will be low in some areas. We may have water issues if convection tonight goes over these same areas once again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... By Sunday and Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms activity will increase from west to east as a warm front lifts northeast followed by a cold front. Pwats increase to 1.9 inches with limited sfc CAPE and deep layered shear. Therefore, expect an environment conducive to flash flooding and not severe for Sunday. In fact, WPC have most of WV under a Slight risk for excessive rainfall Sunday. A flash flood watch may be required. The cold front moves east diminishing rainfall over the area during the overnight hours. Areas that have already received heavy rainfall from Friday morning and afternoons will be more vulnerable for water problems and for the potential flash flooding during the end of the weekend. Behind the front, expect a period of cooler and drier air early Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Cooler and drier weather will prevail at the beginning of next week. However, the chances for rain return by midweek with the next frontal system. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 154 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail through the early afternoon hours. Heating along with frontal boundary lifting northward through the region will fire Showers/TSTMs just about any where over the area this afternoon and into this evening. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys in and near those storms. Quickest development will be along the WV/VA mountains from EKN-BKW line. SHRA/TSTMs should die down after sunset. Some fog may develop in those areas where it rained after midnight. Cold front to our west will continue to move eastward during the day on Sunday and some convection with this front could be over the area by midday Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of showers/TSTMs this afternoon may vary. Also, development and placement of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Isolated IFR possible in fog Sunday and Monday nights, and in showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JW NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JS

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