Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 092121 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 415 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION. OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM... THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF FLUFF. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT KEKN. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 VORT IN SRN OHIO AT 18Z...TO SWING THROUGH WV 18Z TO 00Z...REACHING CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE. HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN TO OVC AND VSBY 3 TO 45 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AREAS OF IFR MOSTLY IN VSBY BLOW 3 MILES. OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY BECOME MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES OBSERVED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ037>040-046-047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009- 010-017-019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009- 010-017-019. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083- 086-087. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066- 067-075-076-084-085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066- 067-075-076-084-085. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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