Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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223 FXUS61 KRLX 072111 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 411 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure persists tonight. A cold front crosses early Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 219 PM Wednesday... A weaK high pressure will continue to provide dry and clear conditions tonight. Satellite images show widespread clearing over the region, and mid to upper clouds far away upstream. These clouds could reach southeast OH by Thursday morning. Clear skies, decoupled atmosphere and boundary layer winds at 5 to 10 knots, expect radiational cooling dropping temperatures into the low 30s. This could produce frost instead of fog. Low level ceilings could develop during the predawn hours early Thursday morning. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM Wednesday... Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there in the lowlands. Still having to increase cloud cover from what the Blender provided as well as lowering highs a smidgen. A gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but clouds should linger. Clouds will gradually erode from SW to NE Saturday due to low level WAA. It will still remain chilly with little if any mixing from aloft to significantly boost temps.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 400 PM Wednesday... There exists considerable spread regarding how amplified the Sunday/Monday s/w trof is as it ejects out of the Plains. The Euro is much more amplified with a deepening surface low track into the upper Midwest versus GFS. Stuck close to the Forecast Builder which is a middle road solution. With the lingering cold air, suspect the very front end of this system will have a short lived wintry aspect. But all of these fine details will ultimately depend on track and amplitude. In the wake of this system, a broad upper trof will settle in across the easter half of the nature with subsequent cold shots slated just beyond the range of the extended.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1150 AM Wednesday... No changes necessary. As of 645 AM Wednesday... Morning stratocu will go MVFR at times this morning, before mixing out this afternoon, as weak high pressure briefly builds into the area. As the next cold front approaches from the west tonight, mid level clouds from the associated upper level short wave trough will overspread the area. This should be enough to keep fog from forming. MVFR to IFR stratocu may form in the mountains toward 12Z Thursday. Light west surface flow will diminish today, and be calm to light and variable tonight. Flow aloft will be light to moderate west to northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and occurrence of MVFR morning cu may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in the mountains,
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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