Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280117 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 825 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST...FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO NEAR NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A RARE LATE JUNE EARLY EVENING WITH WIND IN THE HILLS AND HOLLOWS OF THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT 00Z...FRONT HAS PASSED EKN TO BKW LINE. THAT NOTICEABLE WIND HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. POTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MOSTLY NORTH OF I-64 WITH THE COOL POOL AND LOWER CLOUDS. HOW FAR SOUTH TO CARRY THE OVERCAST WRAP AROUND LOWER CLOUDS IS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE. WILL TRY TO HAVE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH LESS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATER MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AND RACES ACROSS THE OHO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AND ACTS MUCH LIKE THIS FRIST FRONT...KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM...SO FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MODERATE SIDE NEXT WEEK...AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF EKN-BKW LINE AT 00Z. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL OVER OHIO...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH...THE SOLID OVERCAST COMES IS IN QUESTION. SO CLOUD COVER IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGNIIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULD VARY. IN ANY CASE...SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE COOL POOL...STARTING IN EASTERN OHIO 00Z TO 06Z...REACHING NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 03Z. THINKING CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND THIN OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...WITH CLEARING FURTHER SOUTH DURING SAME TIME FRAME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THINKING SOUTHERN WV ON SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL. SO CLOUD AMOUNTS COULD VARY ESPECIALLY FOR BKW AND POINTS SOUTH. AFTER OOZ MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB/26

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