Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170638 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 238 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Sunday... No changes necessary. As of 618 PM Saturday... While there is still the possibility of a few showers developing this evening, it does not appear that coverage will be as high as expected. So have lowered PoPs top slight chance category for the next few hours. Otherwise, nothing else changes at this time. As of 1250 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level moisture is trapped under the high however, possible allowing for some afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect some dense fog to form again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... Weak high pressure at the surface will provide fairly seasonable weather for mid September. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees above normal. Diurnally driven showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, will be possible across the mountainous counties on Monday. A weak upper level shortwave trough will bring the potential for some thundershowers in the middle Ohio River Valley on Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... Weak high pressure will linger through much of the week. Aloft, several weak impulses will be drifting through Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for some showers or storms. High temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal, with near to just above normal lows.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Sunday... Mostly clear skies, calm flow and abundant low level moisture will allow for radiational cooling and associated dense IFR/LIFR fog along most river valleys. Satellite and sfc obs suggest dense river valley fog has already develop. Any fog should start dissipating around 13-14Z. Expect VFR cumulus deck once again forming by mid morning. A few showers are possible across West Virginia mountains after 18Z. Another dense fog event will be possible tonight into Monday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M M L M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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