Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161403 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1003 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry with the exception of isolated mountain convection today and tonight. Weak cool front Monday. Dry high pressure mid week, then warmer and more humid with more storms by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Sunday... Made some minor tweaks to temperatures based on current obs and trends. As of 225 AM Sunday... Despite weak high pressure in place, will get weak frontogenesis developing over the mountains today, warranting a slight increase in the POPs over this area to include low end scattered values. Mid level moisture will be a limiting factor, and expect these to be quick up and down without much organization. Northwest flow aloft will evolve into an open wave diving into the middle Ohio Valley tonight. This will increase the aforementioned mid level moisture, but it and the surface flow/low level deformation zone should remain just northwest of the area. Will se a slight uptick in the temperatures today, but dewpoints should remain in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Sunday... Models show weak upper trough over the eastern U.S. weakening further Monday, allowing eastward expansion of the upper high into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this period. The cool front dropping southeast from the Great Lakes will lose definition and support as it nears our area during Monday. Also, while there will be an increase in moisture ahead of the front, it will not be impressive with the rich gulf moisture cut off in northwest flow aloft. Thus, the prospect for convection Monday will be scattered, mainly diurnally driven, and upslope driven along the eastern slopes of the mountains with weak southeast upslope flow. Will go mostly with chance pops Monday for thunder, best over southeast Ohio and over the eastern WV mountains. Thereafter for Tuesday and Wednesday, with heights and temps increasing aloft, and a rather flat pressure pattern with the dissipation of the front, will keep these two days precip free. Temperatures will see an increase each day, reaching around 90 degrees by Wednesday. It will also gradually get more humid each day, but heat indices are expected to remain below headline criteria. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... During this period, we will generally be on the northern periphery of the expansive upper high across the southern half of the nation. In this pattern, being on the very southern edge of the westerlies aloft with embedded upper disturbances, and a southwesterly low level flow of moist and unstable air around a surface ridge from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic, the prospects for convection increase. Given the forecast uncertainty at this time range of upper disturbances and any fronts to our north, will have general chance pops this period. It will be hot and humid with heat indices in the 90s, but still below headline criteria, especially with prospects of convection. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 620 AM Sunday... VFR today with a developing cumulus field, with some congestus possible in the northern mountains towards EKN. Surface flow less than 10kts. Valley fog in the forecast again tonight, but there will be some confidence issues here given that not all terminals fogged this past morning and there will be an additional day of drying FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent could vary tonight. VCSH possible at EKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H M L H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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