Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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633 FXUS61 KRLX 172339 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 639 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses Saturday night. Many may see first flakes of season Sunday. High pressure much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 640 PM Friday... Took another hard look at wind gust potential for Saturday with the low level jet screaming through. Models still showing strong low level inversion -- below the jet -- and upglide on WAA which will keep strongest winds from making it to the surface during the bulk of the day. Granted, it will still be windy -- gusts of 30-40 mph are likely. If any indication shows up that this inversion will not be as strong as currently expected, a wind advisory may be needed. Strongest surface winds still look to be with the line of showers and storms Saturday evening into Saturday night. Depending on strength of convection, could easily get some strong gusts out of showers as they push through. Revised POPs a bit Saturday into Saturday night as hi-res models beginning to stretch into this time period. No significant changes made, but did tighten up gradients and adjust timing a little here and there. As of 145 PM Friday... Models show pressure gradient tightening overnight and Saturday. With winds expected to stay up most of the night, will go above MOS guidance for lows. Some showers should move into southeast Ohio late tonight, progressing eastward on Saturday. Strong low level winds look threatening with showers, but meso models show a low level inversion that could help protect and keep the stronger winds from mixing to the surface before the front. Am concerned with winds mixing to the ground with the front itself however. Will need to monitor this situation closely. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... Models continue to track low pressure just north of our area, with the cold front pushing through overnight Saturday. The strong cold front is expected to move into our Ohio counties starting at 00z and exit the West Virginia mountains around 06z. As the cold front pushes through and colder air moves in, rain will transition over to snow or rain/snow mix in some areas. The transition will begin in our northern mountains around 08z Sunday and our northern and Ohio counties around 12z. Central WV and the southern lowlands are expected to remain mostly rain throughout the weekend, but may see a few flakes falling early Sunday. Snow showers are expected to hang around the mountains into Sunday evening. Current thinking has accumulating snow only in the mountains. 1 to 3 inches are expected Saturday into Monday Winds with the front are expected to be gusty. The higher elevations can see gusts up to 45 knots. Elsewhere, some strong gusts will be possible any thunderstorms that may form. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... Went with a blend of models. For the most part high pressure dominates this period with the exception of a short wave trough moving through early Wednesday. The mountains may see light precipitation falling as snow showers. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 640 PM Friday... High clouds will be on the increase today. A warm front will bring some showers...mainly across the north Saturday morning. Have included a period of MVFR in these showers at PKB. May need to expand to CKB and EKN eventually. Late in the TAF period, a cold front will be approaching from the west. Bulk of the restrictions will be after 00Z Sunday, but did include some MVFR at PKB just prior to 00Z. Winds will be gusty out of the S/SW on Saturday with a strong low level jet overhead. Included LLWS at BKW until surface winds pick up some in the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions Saturday morning could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night in rain, possibly mixing with snow across the north my dawn. IFR may linger through Sunday across the northern mountainous counties in upslope snow showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...TE/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.