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494
FXUS61 KRLX 271504
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1104 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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The heat wave continues, easing up slightly as the chance for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues
heading into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1100 AM Friday...

Sent a Flood Watch for flash flooding for portions of our
northeast counties, including our central and northern mountains
through 2 AM tonight.

Antecedent precipitation during the last couple of days, has
produce lower FFG over these areas. The afternoon environment is
conducive for slow-moving heavy downpours conducive to localize
flash flooding. In addition, it will take less rainfall to
produce flooding over near saturated areas. Rest of forecast
remains on track.

As of 340 AM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Another hot and muggy day will be on tap for today. Heat
   Advisories remain in effect for the lower elevations until
   this evening.

 * Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated once again this
   afternoon and evening in response to the humidity and
   contribution of a nearby frontal boundary.

 * The slow movement of these storms, in combination with
   antecedent wet soil conditions, may once again serve up
   localized high water issues by late this evening.

Hot and muggy weather remains in full swing today amid strong
influence of an upper level ridge parked over the eastern half
of the country. Heat concerns remain at the forefront of the
near period, with heat indices once again stretching into the
upper 90s to the triple digit mark across the lower elevations.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect through this
evening. This prolonged period of oppressive heat will gradually
ease its grip over the forecast area after today.

At the surface, a frontal boundary remains drawn from the Upper
Great Lakes and down into the Mid-Atlantic region. The front
slips backward into the northeast WV mountains throughout the
day, and will be the corridor of heaviest rainfall expected
within this forecast period. A small bullseye of 2+ inches of
forecast rainfall banks up against our northeastern zones
through tonight, and think this is the best potential to receive
anything more than localized high water spots. Therefore, opted
to not join in with the Baltimore/Washington forecast office on
a Flood Watch, especially given how sparse recent rainfall has
been for our higher terrain areas.

For our side of the Appalachians and down into the lower
elevations, another day of sporadic shower and storm development
is anticipated during the afternoon, with outflow boundary
collisions propelling additional development into the evening.
Initial start up of convective activity is progged around 1 PM,
with the risk for damaging wind gusts increasing late in the
afternoon, in similar fashion to what occurred on Wednesday and
Thursday. With steering flow aloft remaining lackluster today,
storms are once again expected to be slow moving and could
impose more high water issues later this evening. This will
especially be the case in spots that have already received a
decent amount of rain in recent days. Hi-res CAMs suggest storm
activity wanes very late tonight, with small reprieve overnight
ahead of additional chances of daily precipitation heading into
the weekend.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

A low pressure system traversing the Great Lakes into Canada on
Saturday will drop down and slide through a cold front across
the area. This feature will be weak in nature but will have the
capability of producing numerous showers and thunderstorms
since summer is in full throttle with temperatures right around
90 degrees for the daytime highs. This will aid in supporting
longer lived storms with more instability as seen in forecast
soundings which are indicating up to 4000J/kg MU CAPE, however
with weak upper level flow shear is low and movement will be
very slow. This means the issues will likely be hydro along
with possible severe storms. PWATS are up near 2 inches, dew
points in the mid 70s and DCAPE up near 1000J/kg so heavy
downpours will be a given. Hopefully that frontal boundary will
speed up but right now its not forecast to exit the area until
Saturday night. The good thing is lapse rates fall off below
environmental and instability along with DCAPE falls off
leaving skinny CAPE which will mainly just support the hydro
side of things going into the evening and nighttime.

Expect it to be slightly hotter for Sunday by a few degrees
with high pressure at the surface building in, but
unfortunately it will not suppress diurnal convection although
chances for convection will be a lot lower than the previous
day. Seems like hydro would be the main issue as well with high
moisture in the column and PWATs anomalously high along with
skinny CAPE, high DCAPE and weak upper level flow once again. No
synoptic features around to support severe thunderstorms but
one cannot rule an isolated one out during the afternoon,
however the main threat will be heavy downpours with possible
hydro issues. Temperatures will remain elevated but just below
heat advisory criteria which may even get suppressed more from
convection during the daytime so any heat headlines will not
likely be needed at this time for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Weak upper level ridging passes by for Monday and with surface
high pressure fleeting an upper level trough slides into
position over the area later in the day on Monday. This new
feature will likely produce shower and thunderstorm activity
through Tuesday at which point a possible frontal boundary will
pass through as the upper level trough exits toward the east
later in the day on Tuesday. Thereafter, we get a nice break
from unsettled weather due to high pressure actually being a
clean high pressure system this time around. Temperatures will
remain at seasonable or above for the remainder of this period,
however it will not be as hot as it has previously been and
apparent temperatures will stay below advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 620 AM Friday...

River valley fog across the southern coalfields are prominent
on satellite imagery this morning, while the northern half of
our airspace remains entrenched beneath lingering mid-level
clouds. Additional cloud development is anticipated this
afternoon amid hot and muggy conditions, which will also yield
sporadic showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and
evening. Precipitation will linger into late tonight and will
occasionally support brief flight restrictions for the second
half of the day as cells slowly travel near a TAF location. Low
vsbys are progged to be contained to the higher terrain late
tonight into Saturday morning.

Winds will remain generally light through the valid
TAF period outside of any shower or storm progged for this
afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of showers and storms this
afternoon may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
and early morning fog, through Monday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for WVZ020-027>032-039-040-515>526.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK