Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161009 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 601 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the east coast unseasonably warm weather through Tuesday. A frontal system brings unsettled weather for the remainder of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM Sunday... High pressure remains over the region today. A weak vorticity lobe skirts southeast Ohio and northern WV tonight. With some mid deck and lift, can not rule out some light precipitation. Therefore, included some slight chance pops. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Sunday... Global models coming into better agreement and delay the next front until mid week. That said, expecting quiet weather for the short term. Broad southwesterly flow will develop aloft as upper level ridging occurs across the Gulf states. Models build the ridge northeastward and generally place the ridge axis east of the mountains. Modest height rises should be realized locally, indicating a continued warming trend into the early/mid week time frame. The current forecast remains conservative with temps, although some guidance suggests highs may end up being warmer than currently advertised and could encroach on record territory. Moisture return becomes more pronounced by the end of the period as the next system develops to our north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM Sunday... Moisture will begin pooling along a developing frontal boundary by mid week, with the front initially stretching from its parent low in southern Canada, southwestward into the Mississippi River Valley. As the boundary pushes east ahead of an amplifying upper trough Wednesday, dew point values will increase into the 60s with PW values approaching 1.5 inches. Rain chances will gradually increase from the north as the front approaches, but will be slow to overspread the entire area. Instability on the order of 1000+ J/kg surface CAPE and modest deep layer shear of 30-40 kts should be sufficient for a few rumbles of thunder Wednesday and Thursday before the best large scale dynamics slide east. Upper level flow becomes northwesterly after the upper trough crosses. Embedded waves on the back side of the trough will maintain unsettled, showery weather through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. As for temperatures, the early week warming trend will end with frontal passage and lingering clouds/rain through the weekend. It looks like we may finally get back toward seasonable temperatures by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 605 AM Sunday... Wind shear can be expected early this morning above the mountain valleys. Some eastern upslope regions can expect a stratus deck early this morning. Dense valley fog will burn off quickly. Some late morning cumulus in the mountains could be in the MVFR category. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions after any fog burns off this morning. VFR conditions should prevail Sunday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low level wind shear ending could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/DTC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...DTC LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.