-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 301753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WEAK
FRONT OOZES THROUGH LATE MONDAY.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MIDWEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A NICE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TREKKING
THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING A RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUD COVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT LEAST
EASTERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. PLAYED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IS POSSIBLE...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM NICELY AS OF LATE...WITH MANY LOWLAND COUNTIES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO ZONES END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
PRETTY DRY AT MID AND UPPER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFYING S/W TROF AN ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FROM NW TO SE. OVERALL WEAK NATURE TO THE SURFACE REFLECTION AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE S WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE
LOW END WITH THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SE OH. THE
S/W TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BECOMES DIFFUSE IN NATURE AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE DIVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MEAN UPPER TROF WITHIN THE N STREAM TO PARTIALLY PHASE WITH S
STREAM ENERGY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
CLOSER TO N STREAM ENERGY AS WELL. AS THE UPPER TROF GOES NEGATIVE
TILT MONDAY NIGHT...MORE IN THE WAY OF PHASING WILL OCCUR WHICH
MAY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE COASTAL LOW. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO THE PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP MAIN EFFECTS OF COASTAL
LOW OFFSHORE TUESDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE UPPER TROF
AND ALONG THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY
A LIQUID EVENT EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE LIGHT SNOW
MAY BE REALIZED.

THE WX IMPROVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUICKLY REPLACES DEPARTING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEARING SKY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND INCORPORATING
A BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTED NUMBERS. DID ELECT TO GO A BIT
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN EXPECTED SOLID OVC. OVERALL
THOUGH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF MONDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...TRANSITIONING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS/BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

OPERATIONAL EXT GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH AN S/W UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BY AND
LARGE KEEP THE AREA DRY TUE AND WED AS AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA. LONG RANGE
OPERATIONAL OUTPUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST BY THU. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE LATEST 00Z EURO PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS. LARGE SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. DID
HOLD BACK THE HIGHER END POPS UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AND PARTICULARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPS MEANWHILE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND EASTERN KY. FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL