Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301814 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV. A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES. HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WED SHOULD START LESS ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS MOVES E OF THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR INSTABILITY DRIVEN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF. WITH A SFC FRONT STILL NEARBY...A SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM ENERGY COMING OVERTOP OF THE WRN RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NT INTO THU. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...QUITE POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF AN MCS. THE NAM12 MAY BE OVERDONE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER KY ON ACCOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NONETHELESS...AN ACTIVE WED NT AND THU MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM THU AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE IN THE RESULTING HEATING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION THU NT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHOT OF SRN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FRONT STILL NEARBY TO THE S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...CLOSEST TO THE MET EARLY ON AND THEN THE MAV...AND THEN A BLEND FOR LOWS AT THE END /THU NT/. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT AT AND AFTER DAY 3. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR WITH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THRU THE AREA 00Z...CREATING BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ROLLED WITH SOME 1 HR TEMPO IFR FOR W TERMINALS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HI RES MODELS ON SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING. ANY LOCATION THAT GETS HIT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION COULD SEE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS...OR MVFR/IFR FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE CLEARING. THE LAGGING SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MIX OUT TOMORROW. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AS WELL...INTO AN ABUNDANT LOW END VFR CU FIELD...PREDOMINATELY ACROSS S TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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