-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 031526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LETTING MUCH OF THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

645 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING OUT
OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE AS
IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. ANY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NORTH WILL END BY 18Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV/30