-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 031756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1256 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
POTENT WINTER SYSTEM GRADUALLY WRAPPING UP TODAY. VERY COLD AIR FOR
MARCH TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOW TAPERING OFF...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS OR SO. LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CLEARING AS WE GET INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THANKFULLY THE DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN WAS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 HOURS
BEFORE SLEET MIXED IN...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVED SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WAVE PASSING THIS PREDAWN.  HAVE THE BACK EDGE REACHING TRI
STATE AROUND HTS 12/13Z AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 15/16Z.
STILL A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AT 09Z FROM RALEIGH COUNTY ON
SOUTHWEST INTO COAL FIELDS.  THINKING THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR WILL
ONLY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL LOWERED STORM SNOW TOTALS...BUT HARD TO FIGURE AMOUNTS
SINCE A SNOW BURST MAY STILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN WV INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF WV WITH THE ONGOING WAVE. THEN THERE IS THE
ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF SLEET STILL HOLDING ON BETWEEN BKW AND LNP AT
11Z.

DROPPED PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES FROM WARNING...AND MAY DROP OTHERS
IN THE NORTH TOWARD DAWN.  AS PROMISED WE DROPPED SOME MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES AT 530 AM FROM THE WARNING...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP MORE
LATER THIS MORNING.

DRYING TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BECKLEY ON DOWN INTO BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES WILL HOLD ONTO
FLAKES LONGER THAN OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

IN THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
FASTER THAN FIGURED OVERNIGHT.  STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH 14Z/15Z BEFORE RECOVERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALREADY IN PLACE FARTHER WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
OHIO. CWA WILL BE IN NO MANS LAND BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS BY NORTH AND SOUTH
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS PASSING BY...THICKEST ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE A VERY CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATION AL
COOLING FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
GRADUAL 850MB WARMING BRINGING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. BLENDED HOURLY
TEMPS TOWARDS THE MAV...WHICH IS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT PLACES LIKE EKN. NOT AS COLD IN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. FOR
HIGHS...USED A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLEND...AGAIN STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM CURRENT FORECAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE HANDLING OF COASTAL SYSTEM EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST
AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE EXITING WITH IT ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE CRW AREA...AND
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BKW AND EKN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER IN THESE LOCATIONS FAIRLY QUICKLY...AS
HTS...CKB...AND PKB HAVE ALREADY COME UP.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN AFTER 08Z TUESDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS...WITH
ISOLATED 15-20KT GUSTS. WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 2 TO 3 THSD
FT MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>036.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ024>026-037-038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26