Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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195 FXUS61 KRLX 180632 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 232 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Increasingly hot and humid pattern with scattered mountain showers/storms through mid week. Storm chances increase with northwest flow Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 955 PM Monday... Forecast remains on track, no changes needed at this time. As of 755 PM Monday... Convection is beginning to diminish in OH and the northern mountains of WV as instability wanes. Another quiet, albeit humid, night in store with a warm and sticky day expected Tuesday. Calm to very light surface winds under clear skies will once again promote dense fog development in river valleys overnight. Stuck closer to a persistence forecast to handle morning fog across the area. The frontal boundary across southern OH shouldn`t make much headway into the CWA as it continues to slowly wash out. Did not include PoPs for tomorrow afternoon with this feature considering the limited moisture and an absence of sufficient forcing along the boundary. Upper trough continues slowly pushing east, finally making it over the easternmost counties by tomorrow afternoon. Surface heating along the mountain ridges will increase instability and the presence of sufficient moisture will once again favor scattered afternoon/evening thunder, much like we saw today. Storms will diminish by late evening. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Tuesday... Getting decent run to run consistency in the operational models as the flow aloft gradually turns northwesterly in response to the building ridge over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley. As it does so, convection will be relegated north and west of the CWA. Position of the associated warm front will be crucial in the track of developing complexes as they encroach the northern zones late in the short term. Remaining hot and humid with dewpoints back over the 70F mark in lowland areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Tuesday... The operational long term suffer from diverging solutions, but a common theme on the front end is the increase in convective activity. GFS will hold onto a more zonal pattern aloft while the old 12Z run of the Euro develops an open wave aloft and subsequent frontal system that will provide a distinct change in airmass for the end of the long term. Lower confidence in the POPs beyond Sunday as the blends keep the chances up but bring in cooler air for the beginning of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z Tuesday thru 06Z Wednesday... As of 140 AM Tuesday... Upper high pressure continues to build over the area from the west today, and the weak upper trough slowly shifts east of the WV mountains. While a weak surface boundary will still reside over southeast OH today, the rising heights and warming aloft will bring less afternoon convection for that area. The best chance for afternoon convection will be over the northern mountains of WV where a more moist low level upslope south southeast flow combines with the weak upper trough. Nonetheless, looks like widely scattered to scattered at best. Elsewhere, no convection expected. Overnight and Wednesday... Expect another predawn development of IFR river valley fog across the area, affecting most TAF sites again, except BKW, between 09Z and 12Z. Thereafter, mainly SCT afternoon cu AOA 5000-7000 feet AGL, except ceilings 4000-6000 feet with scattered afternoon storms mostly over northern WV mountains. Near calm winds overnight becoming light westerly west of the mountains, and light south winds east of the mountains later Wednesday morning. Wednesday night... Any afternoon convection and daytime cu rapidly decrease with loss of heating this evening. Any redevelopment of fog will be after 06Z Wednesday. Near calm winds again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog overnight. High for remainder of the forecast. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent will likely vary. May need to add VCTS for KEKN/KBKW tomorrow afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L M H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Dense valley fog is possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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