Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280525 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 125 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. COLD FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS STILL HAVE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WORK WEEK. WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A SMALL DIFFERENCE MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RUN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW. WITH GFS MOS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LIKELY POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. BASED FOG THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HEAVILY ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 13Z-14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WILL START TO SEE MORE HIGH...AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...JMV/JW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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