Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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801 FXUS61 KRLX 211152 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 632 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and its associated cold front exit east of the mountains through this morning. Upper level system keeps showers going into the start of the weekend. Re- enforcing cold front Sunday Night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 AM Friday... An elongated low pressure system will exit the eastern mountains this morning, pulling the cold front away from the forecast area. However, additional rain and/or drizzle will continue behind the front as an upper level trough swings through. Low stratus will linger through the morning as well. Flow becomes northerly today with occasional gusts. This northerly flow will keep temperatures well below normal today and tomorrow. It should be cold enough that any lingering precip could change over to snow above 3kft or so in the northern mountains. But with limited moisture, not likely to see much more than a dusting...if that. Any precip still around in the northern mountains by Saturday morning should quickly come to an end as drier air filters in. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... High pressure and ridging aloft starts to build into the region by Saturday afternoon as upper trough/low pulls out to the east. Looks like we have the coolest day yet thus far this Autumn as highs will likely not reach 40 across the mountains and mid 50s in the Lowlands. Still looking at the possibility of a few snow flakes across the higher elevations through the morning hours. Warm advection will kick in on Sunday as NW flow switches to the SE and with plenty of sunshine expected we will likely see high temperatures rebound back into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 AM Friday... After a moisture starved weak cold front passes overnight on Sunday, high pressure quickly takes over. This will bring dry weather with near average temps through at least mid week. From there, operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement in bringing another frontal system through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. For now have only went with low chance PoP with this feature. Guidance agrees at this time that the track of the low will be well to our north, and with us being near the tail end of a trailing cold front, any moisture will be very limited. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM Friday... Elongated sfc low pressure system exits to our northeast by mid morning. Meanwhile, Doppler radar shows areas of rain showers moving northeast over WV. These showers will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities through at least mid morning. MVFR/IFR low stratus could remain affecting some sites through noon. An associated cold front extends southwest into eastern KY. The actual front remains quasi stationary over WV this morning. Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will prevail through this afternoon, before becoming north this afternoon and westerly on Saturday. Areas of light rain showers or drizzle will prevail this afternoon and evening. Visibilities will improve to 6 miles or better by midday and afternoon, but the stratus will struggle to climb above 1000 feet across the lowlands. Widespread areas of dense IFR fog possible Saturday and Sunday morning from 06Z to 13Z timeframe. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers. Timing of frontal passage and drop into IFR rain/stratus may well as timing of recovery today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday. IFR dense fog expected the mornings of Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.