Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 111024 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 612 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES TODAY AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUMMER LIKE SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM UPDATE. INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FASTER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH WEAK CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF FRONT. STILL WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LEANED ON THE NAM FOR DETAILS. THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS MORNING WITH ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE. FRONT REACHES CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE COMES ACROSS OUR AREA AND PUSHES IT SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO HAS REACHED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS IT HAS OUTRUN SUPPORTING CONVECTION. THUS... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL MOVE ACROSS LATER THIS MORNING...SO THAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. FOR PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE HIGH POPS WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCES...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...WILL INCLUDE MODEST MENTION OF THUNDER. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TEND TO PROGRESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS END IN THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG TODAY DESPITE SOME GUSTY WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S MANY PLACES BEFORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT IF CLOUDS DO BREAK UP ENOUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COAL FIELDS AND THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z FORECAST...PREFERRING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. LIKED THE PREVIOUS BOLD FORECAST THAT HAD MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. TOOK THIS A STEP FURTHER AND RAISED THE VALUES A BIT FOR SATURDAY GOING ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE VALUES. ALSO INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN THE POPS INTO MONDAY WITH CONVECTION LIKELY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE MOISTURE FEED IN THE LOW LEVELS LOOKS MARGINAL FOR NOW. HAVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS AN INCREASE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG COLD FRONT. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE PUSHED BACK EVEN A FEW HOURS LATER. MAJOR TROF AMPLIFICATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN ANOTHER COOL DOWN. THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY HANGS BACK FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONT NEAR THE E COAST LATER TUESDAY. THE NEW RUN OF ECMWF BACKS THIS UP...WHICH WOULD BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF RAIN...A RATHER CHILLY RAIN AT THAT. IN FACT...SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN APRIL SNOWFALL AS H85 TEMPS OF EURO ARE RATHER CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE MIDWEEK WITH A DRY BUT STILL COOLISH WX REGIME. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY... A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEN PUSH SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. JUST A CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...INSERTED VCTS IN MOST TAFS. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND 06Z. VFR CEILINGS AOA 3500 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...AS THE SHOWERS DEPART...MVFR CEILINGS FORM EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 00Z WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. CLOUDS MAY BREAK ENOUGH FOR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 05Z WITH A VERY LIGHT WINDS FLOW TONIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER...WILL START WITH MAINLY MVFR FOG 06Z-12Z...EXCEPT IFR FOG IN TYGART VALLEY AFFECTING EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW TO MEDIUM BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS AN ISSUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... FOG OR LOW STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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