Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212326 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses tonight. High pressure late Monday through Monday night, then low pressure and unsettled conditions Wednesday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Tweaked pops to better reflect current radar trends. Line of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of approaching cold front, with brief heavy downpours and small hail. Will let FFA ride for a little while longer with approaching convection but think overall threat for flooding very low. As of 200 PM Sunday... Very slow moving warm front drifting through CWA today, with a cold front approaching from the west. Expect this cold front to move through overnight. Have widespread, but mainly light rain across most of the forecast area to start the period. Generally seeing under a tenth of an inch per hour rain rates with this...however radar starting to show a few areas of higher reflectivity that could result in an area of a half to an inch of rain in an hour. So far these areas have been moving along enough to limit any water concerns. Will continue with flash flood watch as it is, as it encompasses the area with the lowest flash flood guidance fairly well. Overall, PWATs should be near their max right now in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range, and then slowly drop to around an inch right with the front. Continue to advertise more scattered type showers and storms between the warm front and cold front. Not a whole lot in the way of instability as ML CAPE tops out around 400J/kg. But with an upper level ripple sliding through cannot rule out and isolated to scattered thunderstorm. Then, have an area of higher POPs right along the cold front moving from west to east tonight. Showers should taper off from west to east behind the cold front, with some lingering precip possible across the mountains Monday morning. Otherwise, high pressure arriving from the west Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... We should dry out Monday night as weak surface high pressure moves overhead. A broad area of low pressure moves in Tuesday with most of the favorable dynamics to the east of our CWA. Increasing chances for rain, mainly in the east. The low pressure tightens up a bit for Wednesday sending an upper low over our area and will likely cause showers and thunderstorms to develop. So overall, fairly active this period after Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Zonal flow will keep the extended fairly active with at least remnants of the Wednesday system lingering on Thursday. The next system is slated to move through on Friday night with a rapid succession following that through the weekend. This will likely have to be something to keep an eye on for water issues towards the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Bulk of rain associated with warm frontal boundary is starting to exit the higher terrain counties. Brief MVFR conditions possible in this rain. To the west in eastern Kentucky and central Ohio, area of showers and thunderstorms has formed out ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect brief MVFR conditions and a wind shift to a more westerly direction, along with brief gusts in the lower 20 kt range and small hail with these storms. Main area of concern with convection is generally west of KCRW and KPKB. Overnight, lots of uncertainty exists, but general idea is for at least widespread mvfr with the possibility of local IFR particularly across the mountains, before gradual improvement after 12-14Z to VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions will vary in showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Conditions overnight may be worse than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H L L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Dense fog is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for WVZ005-013-024>026- 033-034-515-516. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for KYZ105. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.