Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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633 FXUS61 KRLX 141319 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves away today and tonight. A cold front crosses Sunday afternoon and evening. Much cooler early next week. High pressure with warming trend balance of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 915 AM Saturday... No significant changes to the forecast grids this morning. As of 420 AM Saturday... South to southwest flow increases today and tonight, as high pressure drifts off the east coast, and a cold front approaches from the west. This will keep the weather dry through tonight, with another warm afternoon on tap today. Highs today looked good in light of the latest guidance, reflecting not as cool an afternoon in the eastern mountains, on the loss of low level southeast upslope flow. The increasing flow will keep tonight from being as cool as early this morning. Stayed away from the low MAV, except in the mountain valleys, where fog may form again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... On Sunday, a cold front will traverse the CWA, with showers, and isolated thunderstorms forming as it does so. With strengthening pressure gradient and winds aloft, some of the showers or isolated storms could have gusty winds associated with them, although at this point, no widespread severe is expected. Precipitation will continue into Sunday evening across far southern/eastern zones, as the front continues to push eastward. Much cooler temperatures will usher into the region behind the front for Monday, but no widepsread fog or frost/freeze expected in the short term period due to continued light wind behind frontal passage. There will however be a slight possibility for showers or sprinkles across the far north on Monday, as upper shortwave trough moves east through the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... Much cooler, and very dry early and mid next week behind cold front. Monday night/Tuesday morning still looks to be a night of good radiational cooling, with surface high across the region, and much cooler air across the CWA, 850mb temps in the single digits. Expecting a fairly widespread frost/freeze Tuesday morning, and as with previous forecast, lowered temps a bit Tuesday morning from the blender. The southern lowlands/coal fields of WV are the more iffy locations with this scenario, with other areas more likely. Focus for the remainder of the week turns to the very dry air mass progged to be in place, with cool mornings, and warm sunny days. No significant fire threat at this time due to overall lack of winds, but will be warmer, with low RH afternoons. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Saturday... Dense valley fog will dissipate by 14Z this morning. Meanwhile, patchy stratus near BKW early this morning may mix into IFR or low MVFR$ ceilings at times this morning. Otherwise VFR, except mountain valley fog tonight, which may start to form a little earlier than recent nights. Surface flow will be light south to southwest today and tonight. Flow aloft will be light southwest today, before strengthening a bit tonight. This will help to preclude valley fog outside the deeper mountain valleys. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR / low MVFR ceilings may not materialize at BKW this morning. The LIFR fog at EKN, and MVFR to IFR fog at PKB tonight, may vary, or perhaps not even happen. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible with a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Dense overnight and morning valley fog next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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