Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031945 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 345 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA. STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT 00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z. THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS BRING DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SUGGESTING CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WV SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND PKB SOUTH AND EAST TO CRW AND CKB AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FOG DEVELOPING ALONG RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN GET TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE AT H500 MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 60S...EXCEPT INT HE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS. SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016- 024>027-033>037. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008- 013-014. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086- 087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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