Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230755 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... One last hot day is on tap for today, before a cool front brings cooler weather for the weekend. Another cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM Friday... One more hot day is on tap today, with surface high pressure remaining in place, and upper level ridging just to the west. This would be the tenth day with a high of 90 or better at CRW, and it may be the last for awhile, as long as the cold front is fast enough on Saturday. The cold front will bring some cloud in from the north overnight tonight, which may in turn interrupt the formation of valley fog, or cause it to thin out early, across the northern tier of the forecast area. Inherited highs for today were above guidance but close to highs yesterday, and were accepted with little change. Lows tonight were close to guidance and a few ticks higher than this morning, especially north ans west, and were again accepted with little change. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Friday... Relief from the hot weather is expected in the short term period. A cold frontal boundary will slowly sag south across the region over the weekend...with a slight chance for showers...mainly across northern and central WV Saturday...with a slight chance across the south on Sunday. Still some uncertainty as to how much precipitation will actually be generated...and could have a scenario of just clouds or sprinkles...but for now...elected to add in a slight chance...which matches up well with surrounding offices. Somewhat cooler and drier air is expected across northern zones on Sunday...north of the front. Focus then shifts to a strong cold front...and upper low that will affect the region early next week. This will lead to showery...and cooler weather next week...with temperatures finally close to seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1100 AM Thursday... It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance for a shra/tsra early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear sky and light wind. Dense river valley fog will form overnight but, unlike the past few nights, will be less persistent and may not effect some sites. Also, much like last night, visibilities may be highly variable, dipping in and out of IFR through the early morning hours. VFR resumes after fog dissipates on Friday, with some high-based cumulus and some higher cirrus passing. Friday night, the fog is likely not to form until after 06Z Saturday. Surface flow will be calm at night and light and variable to light northwest by day, beneath light northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight into Friday morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/23/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Morning dense valley fog is possible through Monday, and then Monday night in showers and post-rain fog and stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.