Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221857 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain through Friday night. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... First round of showers and storms moving generally northeastward at the moment, pushing into the Tug Fork Valley along the nose of a low level 850mb jet running around 50kts. This will be a slow to push northward through the evening, essentially priming the surface and triggering the potential for flooding later on in the forecast. Tropical moisture from Cindy still the main issue as it stream in the low and mid levels, and have PWATs 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Bulk of the rain organizing along the frontogenesis bands will take place in OH/WV northern panhandle/PA, clipping our northwestern zones in southeastern Ohio heading into Friday. Given the set up, cannot ignore the severe threat tomorrow, that still has more questions than answers right now. The low to mid tropospheric flow setup is favorable, but surface based instability is in question given clouds, although some breaks in the cover and insolation could provide a short window for storms to form well ahead of the cold front. Water loading and less than favorable mid level lapse rates could also hinder severe threats, but again, the increasing flow may win out in this situation. Heaviest rain is slated for the short term. Flash flood watch issued, however, with thunderstorm potential this evening and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 255 PM Thursday... Remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be passing over the forecast area Friday night. NCEP 12Z models along with the ECMWF are in pretty close agreement in terms of their mass and synoptic fields and show the circulation passing by around 06Z Saturday. Canadian NH taking main circulation a bit further south into VA. Still noted considerable differences in QPF output and associated moisture fields in the models. For this forecast cycle, we bisect max QPF axis on Friday night across central WV, with the higher amounts painted across the southern coalfields. The rainfall rate maxima will occur in association with front as it passes through. Flash Flood watches posted since tropical downpours combined with already wet soils from previous rains will make water problems strong possibility. Flood potential will remain with us on Saturday, and depending on where heaviest precipitation falls, could mainly be relegated to the main stem rivers as headwater runoff moves down to the larger river channels.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 255 PM Thursday... General troughiness will be in place over the Eastern United States with weaker shortwaves rotating through. Atmospheric columns will be relatively dry in comparison to previous tropical airmass that have been dominating the weather pattern for our area. As each of these disturbances rotate through, we could see some light shower development. Went with blends for temps and pops.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z Thursday through 18Z Friday... As of 135 PM Thursday... Expect rain to move in after 23Z this evening from southwest to northeast, with possible thunderstorms embedded within as well. LArgely going with an MVFR forecast, although brief IFR is usually a possibility at the onset of heavier rain, with the visibilities coming up after the initial burst of rain. Therefore, some additional TEMPO grids may be need to cover that on the first hour of the rain. Ceilings to degrade to MVFR after the passage of the rain/storms across the entire area. Any ceilings that drop into the 1-2kft range will come up slightly, but remain MVFR as winds increase in the 12-15kt range with gusts 20-25kts, slightly higher for the mountain terminals. Should see some breaks in the rain/storms tomorrow on the back end of the TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain into this evening may vary an hour or so. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...26

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