Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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506 FXUS61 KRLX 170006 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 806 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESULTS IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TUESDAY. DRIER WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY THUNDER SHOULD BECOME LESS. WILL STILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THE INSTABILITY. EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL DIE OFF DIURNALLY LEAVING ONLY THE SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH ANY VORT MAXES THAT GET UNDER THE BROAD RIDGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STILL HIGHLIGHTING THE RAIN...OVER ANY CONVECTIVE SEVERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING WE COULD HAVE SOME EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS/DUMPERS NEXT 24 HOURS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TOWARD 1.7 INCHES. PLUS...WE HAVE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRYING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE STUBBORN SE 500 MB RIDGE. OF COURSE...MOST COUNTIES NEED THE RAIN. PLUS...WE HAVE OUR BIG CONSUMER NOW WORKING HARD...THAT BEING THE FRESH SPRING VEGETATION. YET...WE DO NOT WANT TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING. JUST MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL ABOUT SOME PROGRESSIVE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WE JUST HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY REPETITIVE ACTION. THAT BEING SAID...THE VORT MAX WE DISCUSSED IN THE MORNING UPDATED AFD...LIFTED THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WV ON SCHEDULE AROUND 17Z. A FEW SPOTS GOT A HALF INCH OF RAIN...MOST GOT MUCH LESS. MOST OF THAT ENERGY AT 1830Z WAS TRANSFERRING EAST OF US...TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR EASTERN WV PANHANDLE. NEXT VORT MAX ON RAP MOVES OUT OF KENTUCKY AND TOWARD MID OHIO VALLEY AND PKB BY 01Z SUNDAY. SO MENTIONED SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ANOTHER 500 MB DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT FROM 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY...RIDGING THROUGH SE OHIO THEN ACROSS NORTHERN WV SUNDAY MORNING. SO OF COURSE...HAD TO LEAVE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND NORTH...LOWEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. NO BIG CHANGES PICTURED FOR SUNDAY...THROUGH THE HIGHER POPS MAY TRANSFER TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSFERRING BACK WEST AGAIN. FIGURING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN A HEADACHE...JUST DEPENDING ON THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TIMING OF THE SHOWERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COLD FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL TUESDAY. MAIN CHANGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO INCREASE POPS SOME ON TUESDAY AND ALSO TRY TO A THIN LINE OF HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EAST...AS THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE DELAYED FROPA...ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE CHANGES...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS OF HEALTHY CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC ORGANIZATIONAL FORCING...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE REPETITIVE BURSTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS IN THE LONG TERM PATTERN. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO COOL SIDE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TIED TO 500MB RIPPLES WORKING THROUGH THE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK UP TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE ACROSS KHTS...KCRW...KPKB...AND POSSIBLE KEKN. DON/T REALLY EXPECT THUNDER AND TIMING THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WILL USE VCSH. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...HAVE VSBY BECOMING 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT FOG 06Z TO 12Z. HOPING LAYERED CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP THREAT FOG OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY GOING LOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/17/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...FB

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