Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 332 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES. WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY. WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/24/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ076-083-085>087. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...30

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