Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 112340 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 740 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND STALL OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVES RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE... FCST BASICALLY ON TRACK. TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORMS FAR S THIS EVENING AND ADDED DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. PREV DISCN... DIFFICULT FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...EVEN AS SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...THE 925 TO 850 MB FRONT ZONE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT RIPPLE EAST ALONG THAT FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT 17Z...WE HAVE THE COLD FRONT NEARING CKB AND HTS. THE ORIGINAL TIMING FROM YESTERDAY...OF AROUND 20Z FROM EKN TO CRW STILL LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDER E AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. STILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY EAST TO WEST TRAINING OF CELLS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ADDITIONAL SUPPORT COULD CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. YET...THAT AREA WAS NOT HIT SEPT 6TH...SO A BIT DRIER. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS OF 17Z. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY FIGURING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT IN THE THIN LAYER UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION LOCATED AT ABOUT 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. 12Z NAM VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE HITTING SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT. WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LEAVING CHANCE POPS S OF CRW AND S OF EKN ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS INTO THE EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TWO SEPARATE STREAMS OF FLOW. NORTHERN STREAM HAS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL BECOME ACTIVE AND TRY TO LIFT NORTH AS THIS NORTHERN ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING THE WARM SECTOR TO OUR SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE AN OCCLUDED TYPE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY. THUS...HIGH POPS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS NORTHWEST HALF AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE LOW REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY LATER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE WHOLE EVENT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN BKW AND I16 AS 00Z APPROACHED...AND WILL CONTINUE OOZING SLOWLY SWD OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. CLEARING HAD TAKEN PLACE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...SO THE QUESTION THERE IS WHETHER DENSE FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THERE. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG EARLY ON...AND THEN STRATUS WILL FORM THERE BENEATH THE LOWERING FRONTAL INVERSION. ELSEWHERE...STRATUS WILL CONTINUE LOWERING UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION...WITH MOST SITES IFR OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE TAF SITES EKN...BKW AND CRW. THE DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT FRI MORNING...BUT THE STRATUS WILL STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY /PKB/. LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT N TO NE OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO NE AND EVENTUALLY SE DURING FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LESS LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MORE SURFACE BASED FOG THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THAN FORECAST. EXTENT OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TIMING OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI COULD ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L M M M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M M M H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM

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