Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210530 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 130 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front tonight into Sunday. Cool high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Next cold front approaches next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 950 PM Saturday... Updated chances of precipitation to increase pops based on current radar trends. As of 155 PM Saturday... Last day of the humid airmass for a while. Cold front...moving at a decent pace...now east of the Mississippi River and pushing east. General model agreement brings the front into the middle Ohio Valley in the 06Z tonight time frame. After airmass convection wanes this evening...expecting overall cloud cover increases ahead of the front...with more showers and a few storms developing. Models are hinting at a couple different bands of convection as the front moves in...but nothing expected on the severe side for now in the SPC general thunder outlook. New Canadian airmass advecting in to the CWA will provide lower dewpoints and temperatures to be seen Sunday and into the short term. The dewpoint decreases may be on the slow side...but should be falling during the afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... By Sunday night, the cold front will be far east and south of the area. Behind this front, a sfc high pressure with center over the central plains extends east into southeast OH and into WV. Drier air moves in with the high pressure. Expect mainly clear skies and moderate temperatures. Initially, it will be cooler Monday, but temperatures will rise once again Thursday and Friday under deep south to southwest flow. Another cold front crosses on Friday. Used a combination of bias corrected SREF and the super blend for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Wednesday will be dry. However, a cold front will approach by Friday. Convection is expected over the warm sector Thursday due to diurnal heating and some forcing. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday next week. Good chances for showers and storms along the cold front Friday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Sunday... Moderate showers...out ahead of an approaching cold front...will cause brief MVFR restrictions. The cold front will move into southeast Ohio by 08-09Z...and east of the higher terrain by 18-21Z. After 15Z...isold thunderstorms possible...particularly across West Virginia and southwest Virginia. As the cold front moves through the region...several hours of IFR or LIFR cigs are possible...with gradual improvement to VFR from west to east generally after 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions with showers and thunderstorms could vary in timing and intensity. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/21/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M M H H H M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H M H H L AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Fog possible most mornings early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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