Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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167 FXUS61 KRLX 260251 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1051 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through most of the region by late Tuesday, before dissipating Tuesday night. This leave showers and storms possible until a new system arrives by the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1045 pm update... Lowered PoPs to slight chance at best overnight, dry across the far northern tier. 800 PM UPDATE... Forecast on track. 700 pm update... Heat advisory cancelled an hour early in coordination with ILN and PBZ, with thunderstorms cooling parts of the area and heat indices dropping below 100 elsewhere as of 7 pm. 515 pm update... Made some adjustments to PoPs including trimming back in southeast Ohio overnight. The forecast is otherwise on track. Previous discussion... Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening. Plenty of instability out ahead of the front and with a very soupy airmass. Storms will continue to fire along this front and could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front is expected to stall over our southern portion of the CWA. Storms are expected to continue over that area overnight. Some fog may develop over those areas that receive rain towards daybreak. The chance of showers will linger throughout the day...especially near the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A frontal boundary will wash out over of the area...leaving plenty of moisture. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday...more numerous in the afternoon and evening hours. Models then showing a feature moving in on Thursday or Friday. Considerable timing differences between the models with this feature...so stayed fairly generic with pops. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean. Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture for Friday and Saturday. A cold front would then push into the area Sunday. Still questionable if this front would push south of the area or not for early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms were becoming more widely scattered this evening, but, with a cold front slowly lumbering into the middle Ohio Valley overnight tonight, they remain possible at anytime, although coverage is likely to remain sparse enough to preclude explicit coding of MVFR or worse flight categories. Rainfall from showers and thunderstorms that did occur makes fog more likely compared with last night, especially at HTS, CKB and EKN. Once the fog burns off in the morning, possibly lifting briefly into an MVFR cloud deck, Tuesday will bring mainly VFR conditions. However, with the front lumbering through the central Appalachians, a shower or thunderstorm is still possible but again, coverage expected to be too sparse to code up explicitly. Light southwest surface flow overnight into Tuesday will switch to light west to northwest behind the front Tuesday afternoon. Flow aloft will remain light west to west-northwest. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site overnight, and any of the southern TAF site HTS, CRW or BKW on Tuesday. Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary overnight into Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L L L L M H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...JS/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JS

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