Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181937 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 237 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves east tonight. Warm front Monday. Then, cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1025 AM Sunday... High pressure crosses overhead this afternoon providing clear skies and warm temperatures into the lower 50s lowlands, ranging to the mid 40s higher elevations. As the high pressure moves east of the mountains, flow will turn southwest bringing a warm front with its associated warmer and moist air to our area. However, prefer the NAM and SREF models being slower with the QPF than the GFS and ECMWF. In addition, the preferred models indicate that the pcpn will split with maximum to the east and west of the central area. Therefore, went with higher PoPs across southeast OH and the eastern mountain counties. Rainfall amounts does not seems to pose a flooding threat at this time. The areas of pcpn will tapper off from south to north Monday allowing plenty of sunshine and temperatures to climb into the lower 70s lowlands, ranging to the mid 50s higher elevations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM Sunday... Warm air advection behind a warm front for Tuesday. This will send our temperatures soaring into the 80s across much of the region. Several record high temperatures could possibly be broken. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and shower/thunderstorms will be possible. Best chance looks to be in the Ohio Valley, where any additional rainfall will be problematic, especially of the convective nature. Will have to watch for the how far east the boundary makes it on Wednesday. Still some disagreement among the models on when the heaviest rainfall will enter the region. One thing of note, is the GEFS is indicating highly anomalous PWATs of 3 to 4 standard deviations by Wednesday afternoon in the Ohio Valley. With the available moisture in place, any convection could lead to flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Confidence is starting to grow in the long term for a potential high impactful rainfall event. As mentioned in the short term discussion, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon or evening. This front will not make it very far and guidance eventually has it stalling out in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. Deep moist SW flow will pump continuous moisture into the area. Still too early to exactly say where the highest rainfall axis will be, but models are starting to hone in on the Ohio Valley. Potential exists for possibly as much as 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, which would cause major flooding issues across the area. Although the Ohio River is forecast to come out of flood stage over the next couple days, it is possible we will be looking at a similar or worse situation by this time next weekend if this pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1247 PM Sunday... MVFR ceilings at CRW, HTS and and PKB will become VFR as clearing takes place due to a high pressure overhead early this afternoon. Easterly light winds early this afternoon will turn southeast tonight. On Monday, the next system approaches increasing clouds and chances of rain showers along with MVFR conditions to the southernmost sites, then spreading north to affect rest of sites. Models show different solutions on pcpn, some of them, splitting east and west leaving most of our area rain free Monday. However, models are notorious for not handling warm front correctly. Confidence runs low for any IFR conditions due to pcpn. A new but slow cold front will reach the OH River Wednesday and Wednesday night. IFR conditions expected under periods of rain showers and a slight possibility for thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. Medium with system Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK/AB LONG TERM...MPK/AB AVIATION...ARJ

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