Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301024 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 624 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... YET AGAIN...ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A VORT MAX...AT 0615Z...VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL UNSTABLE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THIS...COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS...WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A RISK...ALTHOUGH LIKE MONDAY...STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG...THEREBY LIMITING WATER ISSUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH REPETITIVE STORMS COULD CREATE ISSUES. BULK OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIE OFF AS WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN/CLEARING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THERE SHOULD STILL BE A LIGHT WIND AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WED SHOULD START LESS ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS MOVES E OF THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR INSTABILITY DRIVEN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF. WITH A SFC FRONT STILL NEARBY...A SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM ENERGY COMING OVERTOP OF THE WRN RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NT INTO THU. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...QUITE POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF AN MCS. THE NAM12 MAY BE OVERDONE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER KY ON ACCOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NONETHELESS...AN ACTIVE WED NT AND THU MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM THU AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE IN THE RESULTING HEATING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION THU NT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHOT OF SRN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FRONT STILL NEARBY TO THE S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...CLOSEST TO THE MET EARLY ON AND THEN THE MAV...AND THEN A BLEND FOR LOWS AT THE END /THU NT/. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT AT AND AFTER DAY 3. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... ISOLD SHOWERS...THROUGH 15Z...CREATING BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS...OR MVFR/IFR FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE CLEARING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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