Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 210530
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016
Cold front tonight into Sunday. Cool high pressure then takes hold
for the early and middle part of next week. Next cold front
approaches next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 950 PM Saturday...
Updated chances of precipitation to increase pops based on current
As of 155 PM Saturday...
Last day of the humid airmass for a while.
Cold front...moving at a decent pace...now east of the Mississippi
River and pushing east. General model agreement brings the front
into the middle Ohio Valley in the 06Z tonight time frame. After
airmass convection wanes this evening...expecting overall cloud
cover increases ahead of the front...with more showers and a few
storms developing. Models are hinting at a couple different bands
of convection as the front moves in...but nothing expected on the
severe side for now in the SPC general thunder outlook.
New Canadian airmass advecting in to the CWA will provide lower
dewpoints and temperatures to be seen Sunday and into the short
term. The dewpoint decreases may be on the slow side...but should
be falling during the afternoon and evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...
By Sunday night, the cold front will be far east and south of the
area. Behind this front, a sfc high pressure with center over the
central plains extends east into southeast OH and into WV.
Drier air moves in with the high pressure. Expect mainly clear
skies and moderate temperatures. Initially, it will be cooler
Monday, but temperatures will rise once again Thursday and Friday
under deep south to southwest flow.
Another cold front crosses on Friday.
Used a combination of bias corrected SREF and the super blend for
temperatures through the period.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...
Wednesday will be dry. However, a cold front will approach by
Friday. Convection is expected over the warm sector Thursday due
to diurnal heating and some forcing.
Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday
with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday
and Saturday next week.
Good chances for showers and storms along the cold front Friday.
Followed WPC for temperatures through the period.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 130 AM Sunday...
Moderate showers...out ahead of an approaching cold front...will
cause brief MVFR restrictions. The cold front will move into
southeast Ohio by 08-09Z...and east of the higher terrain by
18-21Z. After 15Z...isold thunderstorms possible...particularly
across West Virginia and southwest Virginia. As the cold front
moves through the region...several hours of IFR or LIFR cigs are
possible...with gradual improvement to VFR from west to east
generally after 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions with showers and
thunderstorms could vary in timing and intensity.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/21/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M M H H H M L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M L M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H M H H L
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Fog possible most mornings early next week.
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