Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282010 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW.. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN. MODELS INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06 WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY. KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO. STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR FINISH TO THE DAY AS THE LAST MAJOR ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE SEASON LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MIX WITH SLEET...THEN BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN ALL RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE S WILL BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GO TO RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...SAVE FOR PERHAPS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND ERN SLOPES...WHERE A MIX MAY PERSIST. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR MOST PLACES BY 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR VSBY IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING BUT IFR SNOW WILL BE CLOSE BY PKB...TO THE W OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE MOSTLY AN ERLY COMPONENT...A LITTLE STRONGER SE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MODERATE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY. IFR SNOW COULD GET INTO PKB SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ035-036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ046. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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