Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180659 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 259 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weather remains unsettled for much of the week with a surface boundary oscillating in the vicinity. A potentially stronger system approaches for the weekend for more rain area wide.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... High pressure slides to our east today. Expecting it to be mostly dry today however overrunning out ahead of a stationary/warm front will produce mid to upper level clouds across the region, especially in the south. Light rain will start to move in from the south late tonight as a weak wave forms and runs along the stalled front. The best chance for rain will generally be south of I64 through 12Z Wednesday. Looks like another warm day today for most of the area, with highs forecast to be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. However, I did keep temps down across the mountains in SE West Virginia, mostly with the thinking that moist southeasterly upslope flow may keep cloud cover more prominent there today. Also, with cloud cover increasing tonight I pushed temps a bit warmer than guidance overnight across the southern half of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday... A frontal boundary will lift north across the area under moderate flow aloft. This flow will pump additional moisture while in the warm sector of next approaching cold front. With the afternoon heating, there will be some bouyancy enough to produce isolated to scattered showers or storms Wednesday. Chance for showers and storms will continue Thursday as the main low pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. The actual cold front crosses south Thursday night to bring good chances for convection ahead of the front. By Friday, the cold front pushes across the extreme southern WV keeping chances for pcpn there into Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday... Drier air mass filters in from the north to maintain dry conditions Friday night and Saturday. Another sfc low pressure system moves from north central KY, northeast into southeast OH into WV Saturday night and Sunday. There will be better chances for rainfall with this system due to enhanced forcing from passing mid level shortwaves. Weak high pressure builds behind the second system to bring drier weather by the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... High pressure is in control with just mid and upper level across the region. Conditions will remain VFR through most of the TAF period, however a warm front starts to lift northward in the afternoon. Ceilings will start to lower from south to north with BKW likely being the first to drop to MVFR around midnight. Still uncertain on the timing of rain and ceilings moving northward with the front. Conditions may hold at VFR until after 06Z Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR ceilings may differ late tonight and into Wednesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, as a cold front approaches, and then in stratus behind the front overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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