Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201903 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure approaches this evening and moves through late tonight...then shifts to our southeast on Saturday. Heavy rain threat exists late tonight mostly for Ohio River Valley counties.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A Low pressure system intensify as the first vorticity lobe crosses the area by this evening. Models indicate that a series of vorticity lobes will move around the low to keep the atmosphere unstable through Sunday. Radar images show stronger convection is over central KY moving north. This batch of PCPN will eventually drift east and affect southeast OH and portions of WV tonight. Models indicate precipitable water of 1.5 inches, poor sfc based CAPE and marginal deep layer shear of 35 knots. Do not see any report upstream and lightning density is diminishing. Will continue monitoring rainfall estimates and flash flood guidance to anticipate any event. Light to moderate rain will affect southeast OH this evening, and the rest of WV overnight. Used the superblend and, bias corrected SREF for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper level trough overhead to start the period will close off at 500mb by Sunday night. Scattered showers can be expected through the day on Sunday. The upper low moves over Delmarva by early Monday morning...where it will sit until early Tuesday morning. Several weak waves perturbating around the low will help keep the threat for showers across far eastern forecast zones into Monday night. Should finally dry out by Tuesday as weak high pressure moves overhead.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SFC high pressure will be overhead for the start of the period but the fair weather will be short lived. After Wednesday the Guidance a stationary boundary will settle over the area and this will keep unsettled conditions into the weekend with several short waves moving across the area in zonal flow.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A sfc high pressure remains in control across the area through this afternoon. Weather deteriorates as deep low pressure system cross our area through tonight and Saturday. High resolution models are in agreement with the timing of PCPN reaching southeast OH and portions of southern WV through this evening. Once the rain showers pass by, low level stratus will be common at most sites. Models bring the low pressure center over northern KY. expect this low to move overhead to produce numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. Expect minor water problems by Saturday evening. PCPN may continue after the front through Sunday as the upper level low/trough pass by. Despite or the abundant humidity, calm winds once the atmosphere decouples, boundary layer and H925 level increase 30-40 knots preventing fog development. Low level stratus could produce periods of mvfr/ifr overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration of the heavier showers late this afternoon and this evening at any one location could be less than window mentioned in tafs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M L M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Widespread IFR conditions possible overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning under heavier showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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