Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120735 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 335 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT REMAIN STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST ALONG IT. A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MAINLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST DATA. YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT IS NOW CURRENTLY LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA...LOCATED NEAR MCDOWELL COUNTY WV WSW-WARD ACROSS THE VA COUNTIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS FROM PINEVILLE WV SOUTHWARD INTO THOSE VA COUNTIES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S...WHILE ALONG THE HTS-CRW CORRIDOR DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW/MID 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE ELEVATED FRONT IS STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...BROAD W/SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME RIPPLES OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. TODAY...THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH BUT WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. HAVE ONE RIPPLE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS/NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE THERE...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT PARTICULARLY FROM THE BKW AREA SOUTHWARD. EVEN HERE...THE BETTER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HENCE THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE STUBBORN TO ERODE TODAY. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH WARM ADVECTION ENSUING BEYOND THAT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER FIRST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 18Z AND AROUND 21Z CLOSER TO THE I79 CORRIDOR...WITH THE MOUNTAIN ZONES REMAINING SOCKED INTO THE CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK. TONIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SAT. ASSOC SFC LOW WILL BE OVER NE OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR OR ALREADY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CODED UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHWARD BY AND AFTER 06Z SAT...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING LIFT ON THE 295K-305K SURFACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING ON SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY. WIND PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR ON ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH COLD FRONT REACHING THE OH RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF FIELD. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR EXCEEDS 45-50 KNOTS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES. DESCENT VORTICITY MAXIMA AT H5 CROSSES 18Z SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WITH THIS SFC LOW TRAJECTORY...THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WHEN LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. KEPT HIGH POPS SATURDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE PCPN MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND MOS BLENDING IT WITH THE CMC WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 05Z...WITH SUB-VFR STRATUS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MANY SITES EXPERIENCING IFR CIGS BY THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LIFR/VLIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ENOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO RING OUT SOME MIST/DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AREA. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS LOWER WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY UNDER LOW STRATUS. THE DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT FRI MORNING...BUT IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW. THE STRATUS WILL STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND PKB...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS CKB. FURTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND VA COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT N TO NE OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO NE AND EVENTUALLY SE DURING FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LESS LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MORE SURFACE BASED FOG THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THAN FORECAST. EXTENT OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TIMING OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI COULD ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H L M L M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...ARJ/JMV LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...50

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