Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201837 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 237 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW. THIS ONE NOT AS POTENT AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. WITH SOME HEATING AND INITIAL SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THINK THIS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE STOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLIDES INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS. ANY MID LVL CAP SHOULD BE NIXED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES. ALSO SOME CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM SSE FLOW SHOULD HELP AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THUS...HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE C AND ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCHC ELSEWHERE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE GRIDS. ALSO HAVE THUNDER IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...GIVEN BUILDING INSTABILITY PER MODELS. EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY GO POP FREE. EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXING...HIT THE DENSE FOG HARDER IN THE GRIDS. SOME LOW STRATUS EXPECTED ON THE E SLOPES. FOR MONDAY...KEEP POPS ALONG AND E OF I79 AND ON THE LOW SIDE. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYS OUT WITH MID LEVEL CAP SHOWING UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP W ZONES DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH NO TRIGGER MECHANISM. IT WILL BE HEATING UP WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A WEAK 925 MB FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY. ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79 CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO. ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THRU THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR FOR KEKN AND VCSH FOR KBKW AND KCKB. KHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIGS IMPROVE BY 20Z BUT MAYBE ONLY INTO MVFR. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LESS IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND WITH DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL FLOW...HIT DENSE FG HARD TONIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY SNEAK IN KBKW BUT KEPT IFR CIGS OUT OF THAT SITE FOR NOW. FG WILL LIFT BY 14Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD FOR MONDAY...IN THE 4 TO 5 THSD FOOT RANGE. ISOLATED AFTERNOONS CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/JW NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...30

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