Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191953 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 353 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm, very humid air through Saturday. Cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Cold front late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 pm Friday... The better flow for convective development lies over the southern tier of counties through this evening...but mid and high level moisture is keeping that in check for right now. Still think the coverage of the showers will increase...but maybe not with as much thunder as activity further north in clearer conditions. Still operating in a high moisture content environment...tapped from the western Gulf of Mexico...although PWAT values are closer to the 1.6 inch range as opposed to over 2.0 inches...which is pinned further south over the Tennessee Valley. Regardless...downpours are possible in the slow moving cells...although areal coverage of the cells is on the smaller side. As mentioned in the earlier aviation discussion...some uncertainty tonight lies with the valley fog/stratus potential. Also...have left slight chance POPs in overnight No significant changes to the temperatures...with upper 60s/mid 80s in the lowlands and lower 60s/mid 70s for the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 pm Friday... Breaking news... this discussion does not talk about very warm, muggy air sticking around. A cold front approaching Saturday night, and then crossing Sunday morning, will eradicate the muggies Sunday afternoon. While the flow strengthens ahead of the front, the time of night, and the best forcing progged to shoot up through the upper Ohio valley, this mid to late August front does not appear to pose much of a strong nor heavy thunderstorm threat. Do have high likely pops moving across ahead of the front overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. Low cloud immediately behind the front Sunday morning should mix out Sunday afternoon as the drier air behind the front moves in. There may be stratus in the mountains early Monday morning on weak upslope flow, and valley fog across the lowlands where the gradient and flow slacken. Otherwise plenty of sunshine is on tap for Monday with some cu. Monday night looks to be clear and calm with valley fog as fog season is underway. Temperatures may be somewhat non-diurnal Saturday night and Sunday with the clouds, precipitation and passage of the front. Lowered lows for Monday morning with the MET being lower than the MAV for a change, otherwise no major changes to temperatures. Lowered dew points a bit quicker behind the front Sunday afternoon and night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 pm Friday... High pressure brings a cooler, less humid reprieve for the first half of the extended period, Tuesday and Wednesday. While low level moisture may start to return northward on the backside of the exiting high Wednesday, the weather will remain dry until Thursday, when another cold front approaches from the west. The onset of the precipitation looks to be a bit fuzzy at this distance, with the chance gradually increasing Thursday and Thursday night, a part of the forecast that will likely need fine tuned with time. Friday carries the best chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with this front, with the front itself progged to cross Friday night. Temperatures were close to a blend of the MEX, blended and central guidance with no major changes. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 pm Friday... Spotty convection across the Ohio Valley...generally isolated in nature...expected through the remainder of the afternoon...and should subside this evening. Across the coal fields and southern mountains...higher level cloud cover is inhibiting convective cloud growth...but showers are still forming. Not going to discount the threat for thunder given the summer time conditions however. Using only VCSH...but a quick AMD for -TSRA may be needed. Challenge comes tonight with the question of valley fog or stratus. Guidance and procedures are leaning heavily towards fog despite similar conditions the previous night that resulted in fog. This is lending to a low confidence forecast in how the restrictions will materialize. However...the confidence in restrictions is fairly good overall tonight. More developing cumulus/convection expected into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated convection today could require AMD for -TSRA. May need to change the overnight/early morning forecast to stratus. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, and in fog and stratus most mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.