Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250535 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 130 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH DRIER AIR. FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...THEN TRIES TO SINK SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED. BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE CONTINUED EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED DRIER AIR WEST. THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND GETS SW DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2 THSD FT AGL AT TIMES FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW. OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WINDS AT 925 MB ON THE RLX 88D VAD STILL BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 0530Z. WILL MAKE A BIG CHANGE...IN REDUCING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND THICKEST TO THE PREDAWN AND DAWN FOG. SO THE 06Z SET OF TAFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC. STILL HAVE SOME MVFR IN FOG POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH IFR IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS INCLUDING EKN. ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECREASE...THE COOLER TEMPERATURE COULD CAUSE MORE LOCAL VALLEY FOG THAN PREDICTED FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IN THE COOLER PREDAWN TEMPERATURES...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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