Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271644 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1244 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES. CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW. BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW FLOW ALOFT. AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS TO SW VA. THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST. ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

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