Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 162349 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 749 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the east coast will keep the unseasonably warm weather through midweek. A frontal system brings unsettled and, eventually, cooler weather, late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 550 PM Update...Some very returns on radar across the Northern Ohio Valley so I brought in slight chance a bit earlier for Perry and Morgan County. Also, made some minor changes to sky cover based on current METSAT and observations. As of 1:30 pm Sunday... No significant changes were necessary to the near term period. High pressure in control during the period, with a warm southerly flow in place. Temperatures will warm nicely in the afternoon hours, with overall dry atmosphere in place...and southerly flow. Otherwise, a shortwave will pass to the north later today and tonight. Think for the most part passing clouds or sprinkles are possible, however, elected to maintain the slight chance for pops across the north tonight. With the expected increase in cloud cover across northern and central zones tonight, will see mild overnight low temperatures, with fog generally limited to sheltered mountain valleys, and possibly developing late/remaining patchy. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Sunday... With high pressure remaining anchored off the east coast, the southwest flow of unseasonably warm air will continue to dominate this period. A large upper level short wave trough approaching midweek will drive a cold front toward the area Tuesday night. The GFS had the front making some inroads into the middle Ohio valley on Wednesday, while other models stiff-arm it along our northern and western flanks. The forecast reflects the latter, based on recent model trends and collaboration. latest guidance blends depict the unseasonably high temperatures this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM Sunday... An upper level long wave trough becomes established over the eastern states this period. This drives a surface cold front through the area by Friday, followed by dry but cooler weather. The front should make enough progress Thursday afternoon to limit afternoon heating induced CAPE, and thus thunderstorms, to far southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Another short wave trough in the upper level northwest flow may swing through next weekend, Day 7 night. Latest guidance blends reflect the cooling trend into the weekend, and then a warming trend beginning Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Sunday... A weak mid level disturbance crossing Northern West Virginia could throw a wrench in fog development for EKN. This will bring increased cloud cover for EKN for at least the first few hours of the TAF and has lowered confidence on the timing for fog onset. Depending how long the clouds persist will determine how long they stay fog free, and for now I have delayed the onset of IFR fog 4 hours later than last night. However, if the clouds can hang around a bit longer then fog could hold off until 9Z or later. All other TAF sites should remain mostly VFR with maybe brief periods of MVFR fog in the early morning hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Moderate at EKN and High elsewhere ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of valley fog tonight may not occur due to an increase in mid and high clouds associated with a passing shortwave to the north. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...MPK/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.