Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280134 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 933 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. COLD FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS STILL HAVE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WORK WEEK. WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A SMALL DIFFERENCE MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RUN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW. WITH GFS MOS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LIKELY POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 02Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY... 930 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING SUNDAY. THE RESULT FROM THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VFR CLOUDS AOA 5000 FEET AFTER 17Z SUNDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY KBKW. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE LOSS OF EAST FACING UPSLOPE STRATUS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEPARTMENT. THIS ENTAILS IFR RIVER/VALLEY FOG MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...AFFECTING ALL BUT CKB AND BKW...AND VFR MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...JMV/JW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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