Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131927 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 227 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An oscillating front lingers in the area through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Friday... Isentropic lift will be on the increase heading into this evening with the surface frontal boundary taking on an inverted trof orientation along the I79 corridor. This will allow rain to overspread the area tonight with the main axis setting up across portions of southeast OH and central WV. Expect a yucky night with very low stratus and some fog. With low level cold air in place, some of this will fall as freezing rain, generally north of the US 30 corridor this evening and overnight. QPF amounts surpassing half an inch is possible in the all liquid zone tonight across the I 64 corridor with much lighter qpf expected further north where surface temps will creep below freezing. There was minimal change in ice grids from previous shift across southeast OH and northern WV...up to a tenth of an inch. As such no changes in headlines needed there. Further south, there may not be much in the way of precip overnight, say from southwest VA into the southern coal fields of WV. Across the mountains...expect mainly rain until late when the cold surface high tracks into PA and NY to allow CAD to setup. There is some disagreement with the magnitude and extent of this, with the coarser models not overly excited. Hedged this part of the forecast to the Nam 4 km and meso Nam to better capture the expected CAD. This results in rain changing to freezing rain during the predawn across eastern Randolph and all of Pocahontas County. There is some concern this may wedge into southeast Fayette but confidence not high enough to include in advisory at this time given how warm it currently is there. There is also a concern of meeting ice storm criteria somewhere across the CAD areas in the northern mountains. However, given the uncertainty where the highest qpf axis sets up...have elected to hold with advisory and pass concerns along to evening shift. I did bump up totals to near a quarter inch across extreme eastern Randolph. The meandering frontal boundary will remain active on Saturday with bouts of rain continuing. We will have to monitor amounts as it will not take much to cause water problems. Surface temps will steadily warm through the morning so that freezing rain concerns will subside by afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Have continued freezing rain across the northern third of the CWA to start the period, but temperatures should warm up through Saturday morning -- as a front noses north -- with a transition to rain. A wave moves along the oscillating front later Saturday, driving it back south. It looks to stall across southern CWA, or just south of the CWA border Saturday night before drifting back north later Sunday. This all spells periods of rain through the weekend. None of it is overly heavy, however several upper level ripples moving through could bring some periods of moderate rain. Generally have less than half an inch of QPF through the short term period. With soggy ground, much of this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers, however flooding not anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Front across southern CWA to start the period will gradually lift north as a surface low lifts out of the southern plains. As that low crosses the western Great Lakes into Canada, it will push a cold front through the middle Ohio River Valley and Appalachians Tuesday night into Wednesday. Have high chance to likely POPs with the cold front. An upper level shortwave trough late in the week brings a lingering chance of rain. Not much in the way of cold air in store for us...with temperatures running well above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Friday... Rain overspreads the area late this afternoon and early evening as a meandering front to the south begins to creep north. As such conditions will deteriorate quite a bit tonight with widespread LIFR or worse cigs and vsby. Freezing rain will be observed across KPKB/KCKB overnight for a time before temps warm above freezing. These conditions are expected to hold through the first half of Saturday as well with rounds of rain continuing along the oscillating boundary. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be varying vsby overnight dependent on rain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-523-524-526. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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