Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231111 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 711 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... One last hot day is on tap for today, before a cool front brings cooler weather for the weekend. Another cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 710 AM Friday... Forecast on track... As of 355 AM Friday... One more hot day is on tap today, with surface high pressure remaining in place, and upper level ridging just to the west. This would be the tenth day with a high of 90 or better at CRW, and it may be the last for awhile, as long as the cold front is fast enough on Saturday. The cold front will bring some cloud in from the north overnight tonight, which may in turn interrupt the formation of valley fog, or cause it to thin out early, across the northern tier of the forecast area. Inherited highs for today were above guidance but close to highs yesterday, and were accepted with little change. Lows tonight were close to guidance and a few ticks higher than this morning, especially north ans west, and were again accepted with little change. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Friday... Relief from the hot weather is expected in the short term period. A cold frontal boundary will slowly sag south across the region over the weekend...with a slight chance for showers...mainly across northern and central WV Saturday...with a slight chance across the south on Sunday. Still some uncertainty as to how much precipitation will actually be generated...and could have a scenario of just clouds or sprinkles...but for now...elected to add in a slight chance...which matches up well with surrounding offices. Somewhat cooler and drier air is expected across northern zones on Sunday...north of the front. Focus then shifts to a strong cold front...and upper low that will affect the region early next week. This will lead to showery...and cooler weather next week...with temperatures finally close to seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1100 AM Thursday... It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance for a shra/tsra early next week. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 710 AM Friday... High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear sky and light wind. Dense river valley fog did not impact as many TAF sites as previous sites, the banks staying just below the runway plateau at CRW, for example. This may be an indication that valley fog tonight may not impact many sites, and if it does, will be brief. EKN is the exception, with a more persistent fog. Otherwise expect a VFR day today, but a cold front approaching from the north toward dawn Saturday will bring down somestratocu, which may thin out the fog early. Surface flow will be light and variable to light northwest today and then calm tonight, all beneath light northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog first hour this morning and then again tonight.. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L H L M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H L H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Morning dense valley fog is possible through Monday, and then Monday night in showers and post-rain fog and stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.