Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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001 FXUS61 KRLX 192348 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 748 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits the mountains this evening, while an upper disturbance skirts the north. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday, lingering through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... Cool front and associated band of showers, with isolated thunderstorms, will be east of the mountains by later this afternoon. Behind the front, a rapid change to partly sunny conditions with a brisk westerly wind. Models do have an eastward moving upper disturbance crossing the north later this afternoon and early tonight, and despite some drier air moving in, models do have scattered convection with this feature. This is supported by convection developing over central Ohio at time. Even deep enough instability for thunder as shown on radar. However, much of the energy will pass just to our north, so have lower chance pops with feature across the north later this afternoon and evening, with perhaps a rumble of thunder. With loss of heating convection will diminish, and by midnight we expect most of the convection will lift out of the area with the disturbance. Thereafter, high pressure settles in with dry conditions through the day Tuesday. Not much fog expected tonight despite the earlier rain, as boundary layer winds remain up. Not much temperature change behind the front, with highs again on Tuesday in the 80s under abundant sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Monday... Staying in a relatively dry pattern for this portion of the forecast with increasing thicknesses and temperatures jumping back up towards 90F for the lowland areas for Thursday. A few upper level disturbances could trigger weak convection across the north, but for the most part, the CWA will continue to dry out. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM Monday... Cold front approaches from the north, while the CWA gets squeezed by upper level features in the southern stream that work POPs into the southern zones simultaneously. POPs peak Friday and Friday night, but complicating the matter will be the moisture advection in the aforementioned southern stream, likely from a tropical feature that will move ashore over the Texas Gulf Coast around the Thursday time frame. Expect temperatures to come back down behind this front for the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 PM Monday... Cool front exiting the eastern mountains this evening will bring a relieve in shower activity tonight. The exception will be over the northern portions of southeast OH and WV where isolated shower or storm could pass quickly with brief periods of IFR along their path. A mid cloud deck is evident in sfc obs and satellite images advancing east to affect mainly the northern sections. So, the questions is if is it going to fog? Well, boundary layer winds 10-15 knots could prevent dense fog formation overnight. However, protected river valleys like CRW and EKN could fog during the predawn hours. Winds will be northwest becoming calm where it decouples. Widespread VFR conditions expected as a high pressure builds in through Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium for fog tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if winds decouple more. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR river valley fog possible Wednesday morning. Brief IFR possible on Friday with showers and thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ

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