Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260136 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 929 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS THERE. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH. IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG. ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY... ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND. I EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV

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