Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280745 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 345 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ONE MORE DAY. SOUTHERN MOISTURE BRUSHES AREA MONDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR MID WEEK. COLD FRONT LONG ABOUT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SAME STORY...DIFFERENT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DO HAVE POPS INCREASING TO MEDIUM CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS...WENT A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE I64 CORRIDOR TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS. COOLED THE NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT WHERE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERNIGHT TREND ON MODELS WAS TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCE POPS A BIT MORE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. STILL DRY FOR OUR MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. WARM LAYER AROUND 10 TO 14 THSD FT ON MOST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...YET 00Z NAM TRIES TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME 20 POPS LATER MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN A BIT STRONGER ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH DROPPING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WILL INSERT A 20 POP FOR A SHOWER ACROSS SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. OVERALL...THE WEAK/LAZY FLOW AND THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. BASED FOG THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HEAVILY ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 13Z-14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WILL START TO SEE MORE HIGH...AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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