Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201839 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cooler and drier for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure keeps the CWA dry and warm today. A minor impulse at 500 mb passes to our north overnight though trended towards SREF and GFS ensembles keeping the forecast dry. There should be fog again in the river valleys overnight though the impulse and a full day of sun today may lessen the density and extent overnight. Despite this, still kept a general mention of fog in the river valleys. Monday high pressure holds on albeit weakly, but should be enough to keep us dry again with minimal cloud cover except in the mountains where daytime heating may be enough to spark a few isolated showers. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Sunday... 5h trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes with an accompanying front at the surface. This feature will drive a colder airmass of continental Canadian air into the eastern US by Wednesday night. Have front pegged to be along the Ohio River along the WV-OH border at around 06Z Wednesday and this feature will drive shower and isolated thunderstorm activity across the forecast area with decent wetting rains. Made some adjustments to the model blend pops by just a few hours but generally accepting guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Sunday... Cool period in the long term as Canadian airmass in control of our sensible weather. Surface high dominates the eastern seaboard. Used guidance throughout the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z Sunday thru 12Z Monday... As of 130 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure for VFR until more river valley fog after 10Z before a return to VFR again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of river valley fog tonight could vary. Mid level impulse may mix up BL moisture field a bit for a different fog pattern tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/26 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JW

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