Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130233 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 933 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A southern stream low pressure system moves northeast across the region into Saturday. Arctic air returns for the weekend. Low pressure crosses Monday into Tuesday. Still cold. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 930 PM Friday... Cold air continues to move in from the west, with sleet now changing to snow along the Ohio River. Made some minor tweaks to the transition zone timing...but no changes made to accumulations. As of 215 PM Friday... Model consensus continues to indicate low end warning criteria snow across much of southeast Ohio, following a 2 hr or so period of freezing rain and sleet. The Euro continues to insist on criteria spilling over into parts of our northern WV counties. However, it is now the lone model to do this. After collaborating with neighbors, elected to expand the warning for the remainder se Ohio counties and include Greenup Kentucky. We may not technically meet criteria for the Ohio Counties that border the river, but with some sleet and freezing rain, significant impacts justify having it out. Elsewhere, not sure the eastward extent of the advisory is going to meet criteria, but given the travel impacts expected with a strong flash freeze potential Saturday morning...I will hold and expanded the advisory into the mountains for impact. Temps will crash overnight with a flash freeze a definite possibility regardless of how much wintry precip falls. Light snow Saturday morning across the central Lowlands and mountains will taper off by mid morning. It will remain quite cold with temps falling a few degrees farther during the morning before leveling off. Some pockets of sun are possible in the afternoon. Winds will remain gusty on Saturday and wind chill advisories will likely be needed for our high elevation zone. Held off on that for now given the plethora of headlines currently out.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Friday... High pressure will build over the region Saturday night, sliding eastward on Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM Friday... A low pressure system will then provide a warm front on Monday, followed quickly by a cold front Monday night into Tuesday. With cold air over the area, most of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow with a couple of inches possible. Arctic air will move in behind the system for mid week, with some upslope snow showers possible. Models then diverge a bit on the upper level low, which determines how quickly the cold air will move out and how long the upslope will hold on. Regardless, by the end of the work week, expect moderating temperatures. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Friday... A cold front has crossed most of the forecast area -- still making its way through the mountains as of 23Z -- with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities in its wake. Cold air arriving from the west this evening into tonight will change the rain over to a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet first, and then all snow a short time later. Tried to reflect this transition zone in the TAFs. IFR visibilities expected in the snow...lingering into Saturday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly through the night which could lead to flash freezing of untreated pavement. Snow showers will come to an end from west to east Saturday morning, with a MVFR cloud deck lingering for much of the day. Wind will be gusty out of the northwest through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category and precipitation changes may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M H L L L L L M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H L H L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M L L L L L L M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in snow Monday into Wednesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for KYZ102- 103-105. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for KYZ101. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for VAZ003- 004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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