Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260005 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts east tonight. A cold front will cross Monday with showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front passes Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by a closed upper level low moving in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 8 PM Sunday... Not much change for the front tomorrow, but did tweak dew points and RH to better match obs which the HRRR picked up on. Previous discussion follows...Models are in good agreement with a cold front moving rapidly eastward across the area Monday. The front will reach the Ohio River by early afternoon and in the mountains by evening. Even with the speed of the system, models have a combination of decent dynamics and pooling of moisture to near 2 inches along the front. Thus, a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front. However, QPF amounts will only be on the order of a quarter to half an inch, thanks to the speed of the system. SPC continues to outline a marginal risk of severe weather, and will continue this in the Hazardous weather product. Models also have a prefrontal band of convection forming Monday afternoon along and east of the I79 corridor. Not too certain about an organized area of convection there, so will go with scattered convection there in the moist and unstable air; ahead of the frontal band of convection. Convection will then ramp down fairly quickly in the west behind the front by end of period...with even some sunshine by later afternoon. Milder tonight with increased moisture and southerly winds picking up late, especially in the west. Highs Monday will still reach into the 80s ahead of the front. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday... Continuing from the near term forecast, the cold front should move quickly through the mountains, and take the trailing POPS with it. Closed low drops south through the Great Lakes...with a lobe in the cyclonic flow and a cold front developing along the Ohio Valley. The bulk of the frontogenesis will exist in the southeastern half of the CWA ahead of the upper level lobe, keeping these two forcing features separate as they arrive Wednesday. Dropping low level temperatures and 1000-500mb thicknesses signify a wholesale airmass change with the broad closed low over the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday... Operational GFS, in a bit of a surprise, has now trended towards the operational ECMWF with the closed low aloft oscillating around over the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members still lean towards an quicker exiting open wave aloft...but the GFS ensemble mean changes from 00Z to 12Z look to be coming more in line with the aforementioned operational long term models. From a sensible weather standpoint, this typically results in a more off than on precipitation scheme and a temperature forecast that can end up cooler than the guidance numbers suggest. For the time of year, nothing seems out of the ordinary in the forecast based on seasonal norms, however. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 8 pm Sunday... VFR and mostly clear to start with. Will see some IFR cigs/vsbys return to EKN/BKW though may be difficult to get IFR at other sites due to an approaching frontal system. The front should move through the area Monday afternoon bringing a wind shift, gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms and likely MVFR conditions with localized IFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of fog and stratus reformation tonight may vary. Timing of band of convection with the front Monday may be a bit faster than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Thursday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/JW SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV/JW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.