Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190036 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 834 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbances cross Friday and Saturday, then a cold front crosses Sunday morning. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 835 PM Thursday... Updated chances of precipitation based on the latest radar and meso model trends. As of 230 PM Thursday... Wavy atmospheric river from TX east-northeastward through the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys and off the middle atlantic coast continues to graze far southern portions of the area with showers. these showers may light up a bit this afternoon before waning somewhat again tonight. This will leave the area with moist, dead air in the low levels, so fog and stratus are likely to reform tonight. The atmospheric wave may creep a bit farther north on Friday, giving rise to a slightly better chance for thunderstorms for much of the area Friday afternoon. With PW values progged mostly around 1.5 inches or less on account of drier mid level air in place, it would take a more persistent storm in the light flow to cause any localized water issues. Temperatures were close to bias corrected guidance tonight but adjusted down toward the latest straight up guidance for highs on Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 pm Thursday... At the start of the period...an axis of moisture associated with a weak short wave trough will be positioned in the far southern reaches of the forecast area. PoP chances will remain elevated in SW Virginia through Saturday morning as both NAM and GFS solutions hold back the southern advancement of slightly drier air at mid levels. Relative minimum of PoP chances will occur early on Saturday afternoon before a cold front and associated moisture move in from the west later in the afternoon. The big change in this forecast package involves the timing of the cold front passage this weekend. The NAM solution has a considerably more progressive movement to the system than in recent days. With support from the latest GFS as well...have fairly high confidence in moving the timing of the precipitation associated with the cold front to early Sunday morning...with the actual front passing in the late morning to early afternoon hours. With this change in timing comes a change in the likelihood for thunder...given a relative minimum in diurnal influences at the time of passage throughout the forecast domain. The progressive nature of the front will likely limit any flooding potential with rainfall that does fall...despite a surge of low and mid-level moisture ahead of the system. Some precipitation will likely linger as moisture gets hung up in the eastern mountains...and have maintained slight chance PoPs in those locations as a result. Temperatures updated with latest MOS/WPC averages early in the period...with a slightly cooler trend on Sunday given more rapid advancement of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 pm Thursday... By Monday morning...any lingering moisture associated with the cold front should have been eradicated from the eastern mountains. Dry and cooler air will filter in behind the front as an airmass with Canadian origins settles in over the Ohio Valley. High confidence continues for a dry and more comfortable weather pattern through Thursday afternoon. As mentioned in previous outlooks...seasonable early morning fog will likely develop in the climatologically favored locations underneath the ridge next week. Our next chance for precipitation will likely wait until later Thursday evening as a front...indicated on both the ECMWF and GFS...approaches from the west. Slightly lowered morning lows from Monday through Wednesday given downward trend on ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance. No major adjustments to daytime highs through the period. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 710 PM Thursday... Generally VFR conditions will prevail this evening...although a few showers could cause brief restrictions. Fog will then be developing later tonight. Due to high clouds over the area...confidence in the timing and density of the fog is low. A cumulus deck can be expected on Friday...with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/19/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L L M L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, Saturday and Sunday, and in fog and stratus most mornings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MAC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...RPY

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