Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 012135 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 434 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE ENTERING OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHIPS COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT PRECIP STILL HANGING ON IN NE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT SOON. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTY. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING OUT ONCE SNOW STARTS AGAIN...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL SNOW FORECAST TO NEED THE ADVISORY. LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...PRECIP STILL A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FROM THE SW. WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN. WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN 850MB TEMPS 3C-6C THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SO ANTICIPATE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COLD AIR ARRIVES IN THE WEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SO RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW MAY NOT REACH OHIO RIVER UNTIL AROUND 12Z...I-79 CORRIDOR AROUND 14Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY THERE AFTER. AS MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET...WITH 850MB TEMPS -12C TO -15C BY 18Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW THAT COULD ACCUMULATE WELL BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE EVERYTHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT DOES NOT TAKE A LARGE STRETCH TO SEE THINGS GETTING INTO THE 2 INCH RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SO WILL INCLUDE IN HWO. WILL ALSO HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE COLD AIR PLOWS IN. THIS WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW BLOWS AROUND. THIS WILL BE HITTING DURING MORNING COMMUTE TIME FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TONIGHT...NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY THROUGH 1-2 AM...AND THEN BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE DOWNWARD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MODELS NEARLY COME IN LINE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE JUST E OF CAPE CODE...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MON NT...CUTTING UP THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS. THINK MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ONLY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NT. HAVE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL FLUFFY HALF INCH IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY MON NT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TUE...YIELDING TO SW FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE TUE NT INTO WED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL S/W TROUGHS PASS...ONE TUE AND ANOTHER TUE NT...EACH WITH ALTOCU COMING ACROSS. BY TUE NT...PRECIPITATION COULD BE CLOSE BY TO THE N. HAVE SCHC GRADUALLY CREEPING ALONG THE NRN TIER TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE YET ANOTHER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS ONE IS PROGGED TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CARRIES AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHICH SHOULD TAKE MAINLY THE FORM OF RAIN...MAYBE EVEN MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY CODED. USED A CONSALL/MET BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES MON NT IN COLD ADVECTION THAT GRINDS TO A HALT. AVERAGED IN A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR LOWS TUE NT...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO DEPICT A NON DIURNAL TREND THEN. BLENDED IN CONSALL TO ADJUST HIGHS...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FCST...A LITTLE HIGHER ON HIGHS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON WED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. 12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS CWA CURRENTLY...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR CIGS AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. CIG/VIS WILL BE DROPPING INTO MVFR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD EVEN GET SOME IFR IN THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN. COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW...WITH IFR EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND SHIFT W THEN NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALSO BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS INTO MVFR AND IFR MAY VARY. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF WV.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

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