Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180532 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 06Z GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST. DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS. SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/18/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...RPY

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