Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291741 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 141 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front arrives thursday with showers and cooler air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie. Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at 18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be rather limited due to the late arrival of the front. Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front. Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With the remnants of the tropical system and its rich moisture staying east of our area...the weak cool front forecast by the models to move across Monday morning will not have much moisture to work with. Lack of upper support and moisture...combined with unfavorable time of day...will result in essentially a dry front as it moves across Monday. Only in the mountains do we hang onto very low pops Monday...where there may be some last minute heating and slightly better moisture before the front moves across. Behind the front...lack of cold advection and increased sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s Monday. Thereafter...high pressure will bring dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will continue in the 80s...as continued sunshine helps to boost temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mainly vfr conditions through this evening...although brief mvfr and ifr conditions are possible in showers...and isolated thunderstorms through 02Z. MVFR and local IFR Fog possible late tonight...generally after 04-06Z...particularly across southeast Ohio...NE KY...and WV counties near to the Ohio River. However...fog cannot be completely ruled out tonight in any location that receives rainfall today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of shra and tsra remains in question today. Fog development tonight in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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