Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030849 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 449 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST IN...INTO NORTHERN IL...WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE 15-18Z TIME PERIOD...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES...AS MODELS INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3000+ J/KG CAPE...AND 35-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS WELL AS INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE SOME LOWER CLOUDS HANG OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THE WARM SIDE. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS PUFFS OF WIND MAY STILL EXIST INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD IS A DRIER FCST FOR TUE INTO WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE AREA TUE MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING NOT FAR TO THE S OF THE FCST AREA...STILL HAVE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TIER INTO WED. MODELS CONCUR BROADLY ON THE IDEA OF A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W BY THU MORNING. THERE WAS ABOUT A 10MB DIFFERENCE ON THE PRESSURE OF THE SFC LOW CENTER...THE NAM BEING THE LOWER AT 1001 MB WHICH IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR A LOW CENTER IN SRN IL IN MID SUMMER. THE ECMWF IS SQUARELY IN BETWEEN AND LOOKED REASONABLE. THE FRONT TO THE S RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT WED AND WED NT...BRINGING BACK THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN FROM THE W IN AN AXIS SHIFTING FROM S TO N AS IT PUSHES E. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THU. PREFERRED THE ECMWF QPF WHICH BEST DEPICTS THIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO AND S OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N EARLY THU MORNING. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. LOWS AND DEW POINT FCST BETTER REFLECT N-S GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO THE S TUE INTO WED. DIFFERENTIAL CLOUD COVER MUDDLES THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FCST A BIT ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 09-12Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE GENERALLY AFTER 15Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 18-20Z. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IN VICINITY OF STORMS...AS WELL AS BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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