Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
805 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow showers continue through this evening in the lower
elevations and through daybreak in the mountains. Dry and breezy
Tuesday with increased risk of wildfire spread. Mainly dry into Friday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Monday...
Scattered snow showers were most stout over southern WV, and
will continue moving on through and out of the area with the
short wave trough axis and last of the cold advection tonight.
Lighter snow showers and flurries elsewhere will dissipate
tonight, except along the northern mountains, where upslope flow
could keep snow showers going much of the night.
Temperatures and dew points were largely on track this evening,
but did lower dew points and, correspondingly, RH values a bit
for Tuesday afternoon. The wind forecast looked good with gusty
winds much of the time through Tuesday, and beyond, as high
pressure passing well south of the area allows gradient flow to
continue.
As of 120 PM Monday...
Cold air crossing the Upper Great Lakes is yielding enhanced low
level moisture across the region today. The surface layer remains
quite dry in the lowlands making it a tough journey to the surface
for any snowflakes falling out of the clouds based around 3000 to
4000 ft, but spotty flurries/snow showers remain possible through
early this evening with little to no accumulation expected. In the
mountains, upslope enhancement will yield a little better chance of
some light accumulating snow, but the combination of warm ground
temperatures, a fairly shallow dendritic growth layer and turbulent
boundary layer flow should limit any accumulations to an inch or two.
As skies clear overnight and winds lighten somewhat, will see
temperatures dipping into the upper 20s across most of the lower
elevations. While the growing season has not yet been declared
open, those with sensitive vegetation that has emerged early are
urged to take protective actions from the cold.
Winds shift more westerly overnight tonight in response to surface
low pressure approaching the Upper Great Lakes while surface high
pressure settles into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Channeled
flow between these features will yield breezy conditions Tuesday
with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph.
Coincident with these gusty winds, we will be mixing into some
very dry air aloft yielding relative humidity values dipping
into the mid 20s by Tuesday afternoon. While the greenup is
underway, dead fuels remain quite dry and prone to carrying
fire. In coordination with land management agencies and our
neighboring offices, will issue a fire danger statement with
afternoon to hopefully limit overnight burning and any holdover
risk heading into Tuesday. As a reminder, fire season laws are
in effect with open burning restricted to varying degrees during
the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...
Mainly dry conditions will persist through the short term
period as a broad, low amplitude upper trough continues to
persist across the eastern CONUS. A weak cold front will slide
through on Wednesday, bringing the chance for isolated rain or
snow showers across the mountains. Otherwise, dry weather is
progged for the rest of the period as high pressure builds into
the region, with fire weather concerns being the main headline.
Given dry air aloft and daytime mixing, did lower dew points to
the 10th percentile on Wednesday/Thursday afternoons, resulting
in minimum RH values in the 20s both days across some or most of
the forecast area. Wednesday is likely the most concerning day,
with wind gusts of 20-30 mph (if not higher) progged for much
of the area. Surface flow will be much lighter on Thursday.
High temperatures will be near normal on Wednesday, while ~ 10
degrees below normal on Thursday, amid plenty of sunshine both
days. Did trim overnight lows each night a bit from central guidance
given dry air aloft mixing down to the surface each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...
The extended portion of the forecast looks a bit more active as
a disturbance crosses the region Friday into Saturday, with
another disturbance approaching the region on Monday. Precipitation
Friday into Saturday generally looks to be on the lighter side
and in the form of mainly rain, but could be a bit heavier if
northern/southern stream phase early enough as some guidance
shows. Regardless, a much needed wetting rain is possible, with
dry conditions returning late Saturday into Monday in advance of
the next system to the west. Near seasonable temperatures are
expected Friday through Sunday amid a slow warming trend. Monday
is progged to be ~ 10 degrees above normal as warm advection
ahead of low pressure begins in ernest across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Monday...
Scattered showers will produce brief IFR restrictions south and
brief MVFR restrictions north through about 03Z, before
dissipating. Snow showers will persist longer in the EKN area,
perhaps even much of the night. MVFR ceilings are likely to
become predominate even outside snow showers at EKN and BKW
overnight, and continue into Tuesday morning. Stratocumulus will
lift and break up from south to north the rest of Tuesday
morning.
West to northwest surface flow will be gusty at times, settling
down across the lowlands overnight, before becoming stronger
throughout the area on Tuesday. West to southwest surface flow
Tuesday afternoon will gust into the 20 to 25 kt range across
the south, and 25 to 30 kt range across the north, and in the
mountains. Moderate west to northwest flow aloft tonight into
Tuesday morning will become moderate west to southwest for
Tuesday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF
amendments may still be needed tonight for MVFR or even IFR
conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites.
Timing of MVFR stratocumulus in the mountains outside snow
showers overnight into Tuesday morning may vary,
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...TRM