Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
453 FXUS61 KRLX 220535 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS IN MAINLY NORTH BEFORE IT WASHES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGH AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AS IT COULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KBKW AND KEKN. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS STARTING TO FORM...CREATING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT GENERALLY...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KCKB IN THE 20-02Z TIME PERIOD. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS CLOSER TO 06Z CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...OR EVEN EXISTENCE OF FOG MAY VARY. TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M H H .AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/JW NEAR TERM...MZ/SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.