Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260112 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 911 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system moves off the Carolinas coast loosing its grip on our weather. Brief high pressure builds tonight and Wednesday. Next cold front Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 910 PM Tuesday... Just a few minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. As of 725 PM Tuesday... Updated sky cover this evening to better represent the latest meso model and satellite trends. As of 230 PM Tuesday... As the upper level low over the Carolinas moves northeast off the Atlantic coast, winds aloft will decrease and back from the west southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. This winds will bring warm and moist air mass to the area. With near calm winds and enough low level moisture and skies clearing, expect areas of dense fog mainly along the river valleys overnight tonight. A brief high pressure builds over the OH Valley Wednesday providing dry conditions from tonight through Wednesday night. The next cold front approaches Thursday with chance for showers or storms ahead of the front. The actual front crosses Thursday night with additional convection. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... S/W ridging breaks down Thursday with a subsequent front entering into the area during the evening hours. There looks to be some convective activity in the afternoon with a prefrontal trof crossing. The actual front looks to become rather diffuse once into the area Thursday night with the threat for showers lingering across the northern mountains overnight. Southerly flow quickly becomes reestablished across the region on Friday as the next upstream system organizes across the lower MS Valley. Temps will run quite a bit above average during the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... This weekend looks kind of dicey as the eventually succumbs to upper level ridging downstream of an amplifying system across the Southern Plains. As a result there will be some showers/storms around the first half of Saturday along a developing warm front especially across northern zones, before ridging shifts the action north of here. The ridge axis shifts to the East Coast on Sunday, putting the area in broad southwesterly flow with the threat for afternoon showers/storms. The aforementioned amplified system will shift into the upper Midwest on Monday with a strong front crossing sometime later Monday. Temps will continue to run above normal. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 725 PM Tuesday... Clouds will gradually clear this evening and winds will become light. This should allow for patchy dense fog to form, especially in areas that received rainfall today. However, Meso NAM does show some clouds reforming overnight. This leads to lower confidence in the fog. After fog burns off on Wednesday, expect a rising and dissipating cumulus deck. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through Wednesday morning, then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of fog tonight could be effected by the formation of a stratus deck instead. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M L L L M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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