Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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110 FXUS61 KRLX 222354 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 754 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong cold front and low pressure system crosses Monday and Monday night, with much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As 1255 PM Sunday... The last of the stretch of beautiful weather ends Monday. Clouds will increase tonight along with boundary layer winds. This should mitigate river valley fog, save for the mountain valleys. Overnight lows were kept on the warm side of guidance except across the mountain valleys. Temps may actually rise during the predawn as a stout LLJ moves approaches from the west. For Monday, we will be tracking the progress of a strong cold front into the area with surface low moves west of the area, up through the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers will be noted ahead of the front Monday morning. This will keep instability down and mitigate thunder. Having said that, this is a dynamic system overall, and given the strong forcing from the associated mid level system, concern exists for some of the stronger winds aloft to be transfered down with the front late afternoon despite. Temps were derived from a blend of guidance, trying to show warmer readings across the northern lowlands. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday... A cold front will continue to push eastward through the region Monday evening providing showers. Cooler air will move into the area behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trough moves over the area. This trough will also provide some moisture and lift, allowing for a chance of showers. With colder air aloft, could see some snow flakes in the higher elevations of the northern WV mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday... A high pressure system will build over the area on Thursday, providing dry weather into Friday. A strong cold front will then move into the area from the west over the weekend. Still some fairly large differences between the models in the handling of the upper level trough with this system, and subsequently, whether a wave forms along the front or not. Confidence in getting precipitation is high, but low regarding how long the rain will last and how much accumulates. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00z mONDAY THRU 00z tUESDAY... As of 740 PM Sunday... Strong low pressure lifts up across the area Monday. Tonight... Increasing clouds from the southwest. VFR ceilings will prevail with ceilings AOA 5000 feet southwest portions to AOA 12000 feet northeast portions by 12Z Monday. Most of the precip will hold off til after 12Z. Boundary layer winds increase out of the se. This should keep river valley fog in check, though EKN may decouple enough for a brief period of MVFR vsby for a time later overnight. There is a concern for LLWS during the predawn, but confidence is too low to include in any tafs at this distance. Monday... Ceilings continue to lower from southwest to northeast, from VFR to MVFR/IFR as widespread showers overspread the area. Deep enough instability too marginal to include thunder. MVFR stratus may affect east facing slopes ahead of the widespread showers, including BKW on moistening se flow. Southeast winds tonight will increase to 4 to 8 KTS later tonight, especially in the south. Gusty south to southeast winds can be expected by late morning...generally 10 to 20 kts, except 25 to 30 KTS mountain ridgetops. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers may vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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