Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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795 FXUS61 KRLX 201515 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1015 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Foggy this morning. Unseasonably warm through the work week Weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts through to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM Today... Dense fog advisory extended until 11 AM per current trends, near term guidance and collaboration with neighbors. As of 500 AM Today... Based on observations and webcams, added another row of counties to Fog Advisory. As of 120 AM Today... Dense fog along the Ohio river this morning - issued a Dense Fog Advisory due to the extent and intensity. Fog elsewhere, but likely not as widespread. Fog should begin to mix and burn off after daybreak. A warm, dry, and sunny day on tap with temperatures topping of near 70 F. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Unseasonably warm weather continues through mid week, with afternoon highs in the 60s and low 70s across much of the CWA. A relatively weak cold front crosses Tuesday and Tuesday night. The NAM is starting to show a surface wave develops along the front, which is a pretty typical scenario. With this in mind, have an area of likely POPs Tuesday evening into overnight, and linger some POPs into Wednesday. Have POPs increasing again Wednesday night as a warm front develops, however model differences leads to some uncertainty with this. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... As mentioned in the short term, some models showing a warm front developing across the CWA on Thursday. However, new 00Z ECMWF has shifted north with this and keeps CWA mostly dry. With decent moisture inflow and warm temperatures, decided to keep POPs in the forecast, with showers and thunderstorms lifting through. Linger some low end POPs Friday as well in the warm sector, and then have POPs increasing pretty quickly Friday night as a cold front moves through. ECMWF pretty quick on moving the moisture out by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS has wrap-around moisture lingering. For now stuck closer to the ECMWF and have POPs ending by Saturday night, with a dry forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1015 AM Today... Amended TAFS reflect fog gradually burning off through 18Z today CRW-HTS-PKB. As of 550 AM Today... Foggy with plenty of IFR this morning. VFR and mostly clear most places by 16Z. MVFR stratus in the northeast has inhibited fog formation there. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern extent of LIFR is questionable. Burn off timing a little tricky could be later... EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>019. OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW NEAR TERM...TRM/JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM/JW

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