Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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161 FXUS61 KRLX 182015 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 315 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses tonight. Much colder Sunday. High pressure early next week. Cold front Tuesday night. High pressure again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 PM Saturday... A strong cold front will push through the region overnight. Models still showing a strong low level jet near the cold front, so still concerned with wind gusts along the front. Will need to monitor this situation very closely, as a wind advisory may still be needed. Behind the cold front late tonight, models showing good lift for a brief period. Looks like the higher elevations of the mountains could get a quick inch or two of snow. Should see a lull in snow during the morning hours, but as an impulse goes through in the late afternoon hours, models showing good moisture depth, cold air advection, and good upslope over northeastern WV. Will increase pops accordingly. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 435 AM Saturday... A large, intense surface low moves up the Saint Lawrence River Valley Sunday and Sunday night, its central pressure falling through the 970s /MBs/ during this time. This places the forecast area, along with the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, middle Atlantic and northeast states in deep layer west to northwest flow, that wanes with time from the southwest, as high pressure builds in from that direction, into the southern Appalachians. This flow will lead to upslope snow showers, enhanced at times by trajectories off the Great Lakes, that also wane with time. Wind gusts near 40 kts over the higher ridges Sunday morning, will gradually wane a bit through Monday morning. Following the main upper level short wave trough lifting out behind the surface low, a second short wave trough crosses Sunday night. This leads to a secondary surge in low level flow and cold advection late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, which could result in a second though lesser peak in wind gusts and upslope snow showers. Another 1 to 2 inches snow accumulation across the higher windward terrain Sunday into Sunday night could bring snowfall totals there up to around 3 inches. Many lowland locations could see the first snow flakes of the season, but the boundary layer will be able to melt many of the hydrometeors in the isolated to scattered coverage there Sunday. Clearing takes place late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds in, and that high rules the roost through Tuesday. Another cold front crosses Tuesday night, with limited moisture. Models differ on whether or not we could squeeze a few light rain showers out of it with the frontal passage, and a few light upslope snow showers behind the front. Temperatures close to central guidance, except a little lower in cold advection Sunday morning, and a little lower in the valleys under high pressure Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 435 AM Saturday... High pressure, with dry weather and somewhat below normal temperatures, dominates this period, between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Low pressure may pass south of the area during this time, beneath the southern branch. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Saturday... Some showers over northern WV will move northward this afternoon. Some brief MVFR restrictions are possible before these move off to the north. While some other showers can not be ruled out this afternoon, most areas will remain dry with VFR conditions. Southerly winds will be rather gusty, with wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph possible. A cold front will produce showers as it moves through overnight. Brief IFR conditions are possible with these showers. Expect strong gusty winds with the cold front, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Behind the front, expect MVFR conditions with some IFR conditions in the higher elevations of the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions could vary. Timing of the cold front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST Sunday for WVZ520-522>524-526. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526. OH...None. KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM/AB LONG TERM...TRM/AB AVIATION...RPY

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