Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300607 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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200 AM UPDATE... Forecast on track with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move up through the middle Ohio valley overnight, and the flood threat waning. 745 PM UPDATE... Widely scattered shra/tsra will wane over the area as the evening progresses. Cant fully take pops out overnight with the subtle ripples in the flow traversing thru the region. In fact...an uptick in coverage may present itself after midnight across portions of SE OH and N WV. Otherwise...low stratus and fog will develop with areas that received rain taking the dive first. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing across the region at this time. With continued heating...expect the areal coverage to continue to increase. Models indicate a trough axis will approach the forecast area from the west tonight and then remain in the area on Saturday. Several disturbances will move through the upper level flow, one this evening and another on Saturday. The disturbance this evening should result in some showers and storms overnight. However, expect the areal coverage to decrease with the loss of sunshine. With abundant low-level moisture in place, expect a repeat of last night with some stratus and valley fog developing. Expect conditions will slowly improve after sunrise with some sunshine possible by late morning. Another disturbance will combine with daytime heating and low- level moisture to result in the development of showers and storms by late morning on Saturday. The storms should become more numerous across northern and western portions of our forecast area and because of this, I have gone with likely pops in those areas. PW values still expected to be around two inches with each of these features. This moisture and light deep layer flow will continue to support locally heavy downpours. Because temperatures looked good, I did not make any significant changes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Continued hot and humid Sunday and Monday...with frontal boundary continuing to hang out across northern zones. Weak disturbances in the flow...as well as daytime heating...will trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms at times...but overall...coverage should be less than in recent days. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall...drier to start next week...with high pressure...surface and aloft in control. Upper ridge strengthens across the area mid week...with increasing temperatures. Looking at generally diurnal showers and thunderstorms...mostly in the mountains...although a slight chance cannot be completely ruled out elsewhere. Frontal boundary approaches late in the extended...but at this point...lots of uncertainty in timing. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Still a low to medium confidence forecast as to the extent of stratus and fog overnight. Have IFR developing all sites but dense fog only at PKB and EKN. The stratus will again take much of Saturday morning to mix into an MVFR stratocu deck and then mix out into a VFR cu field for the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible mainly across the middle Ohio Valley and northern WV overnight, and then most likely these same area Saturday afternoon. Fog and stratus are likely to begin forming again by 06Z Sunday, but showers and thunderstorms remain possible Saturday night. Flow surface and aloft will be mainly light southwest. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight into Saturday morning depends upon higher clouds and precipitation, with dense fog possible at any of the sites. A thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions anytime through 06z Sunday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but mainly Monday, which would in turn make Tuesday morning a better candidate for fog and stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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