Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 022327 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... IN EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 15Z MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY 16Z MONDAY THE RAP MODEL HAS 20 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB. STILL LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING...SO NO CHANGES THERE. FOR THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS EAST IN THE 22Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME FROM THE MID OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV. CELLS WILL BE MOVING AT AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOW QUCIKLY CONVECTION SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA..SAY HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY...WITH MODELS HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE INCREASE...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASING ONLY POSSIBLE THICK FOG FIGURED WOULD BE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SUCH AS PINEVILLE AIRPORT. HAVE SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND ELKINS DURING THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE HAVE 5 TO 10 THSD FT CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY 08Z TO 12Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER 11Z TO 15Z. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NOT REACHING TOWARD MID OHIO VALLEY AND PKB VCNTY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB CORRIDOR AFTER 22Z. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS...BUT TIMING HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION SINKS INTO HTS-CRW ON SOUTH IS DIFFICULT. TRIED TO DELAY MAIN CHANCES JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIODS DURING TUESDAY EVENING FOR HTS-CRW-BKW. HAVE CEILINGS NEAR 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY AOB 3 MILES IN LATE DAY AND EVENING CONVECTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KTB

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