Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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140 FXUS61 KRLX 250733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 333 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night, and again late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 PM Friday... Upped the overnight lows by 3-5 degrees from the previous forecast given the warm sector flow, but dropped a couple of the mountain valleys a couple degrees with radiating conditions there as they decouple. As of 140 PM Friday... Mainly quiet in the warm sector tonight and much of tomorrow. There will be intervals of clouds through the period, particularly late tonight and tomorrow morning. For temps, we rolled on the high side of guidance tonight and tomorrow which was well clustered to begin with. We may hit 80 along and south of the I64 corridor if we can get enough sun in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as low pressure at the surface and aloft into the Great Lakes. The negatively tilted system will pull moisture into the region, although there will be some downsloping too across the western slopes and lowlands. The combination of 40-50kts bulk shear and around 500J/kg CAPE will yield the potential for at least isolated strong to severe storms. NAMnest, WRFARW and WRFNMM all in decent agreement bringing a round of thunderstorms into the tri- state region around 18Z Sunday. Will place mention of potential damaging winds and hail in HWO for area outlined by SPC marginal risk. Drop POPs down to slight chance on Monday. GFS is much faster than ECMWF and NAM on the next surface low, thus did not go completely dry Monday. This system doesn`t look as strong as Sundays, with just an open wave aloft instead of a closed low. However, still have likely POPs Tuesday...along and east of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Not a whole lot of confidence through the long term as GFS and ECMWF offer different solutions. Both show a drier period Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. At that point, the GFS brings a quick moving system through -- passing it south of the CWA and pulling a shot of cold air down. GFS shows about -4C 850mb temps for Friday. The ECMWF is much slower, with an upper low closing off over the upper Mississippi Valley, the surface low much farther west, and +12C 850mb temps across CWA on Friday. Stuck very close to consensus guidance with no strong feeling either way. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 124 AM Saturday... VFR today with a broken deck of mid to high clouds. Light winds. Cold front crosses Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night as the rain ends. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW/26

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