Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281437 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Sunday... Updated sky grids to reflect quite a bit of mid deck along and S of the I64 corridor this morning. This has been stubborn to erode or move which may impact aftn temps a bit and thus heat indices. Latest runs of RAP indicate this hanging around thru the afternoon and slowly shifting into SE OH and portions of N WV. Will leave heat advisory in place for now and see how these clouds play out over the next few hrs. Will look for a bit more coverage of convection later this aftn over the N WV mountains and along the OH River and into SE OH especially...in association with a weakness in the ridge where some deeper moisture resides. As of 330 AM Sunday... The weather pattern continues to remain fairly consistent with hot and humid conditions under upper ridge. Heat indices will once again approach 100 degrees in the tri-state region. Have issued a heat advisory for portions the CRW-HTS metros and surroundings. Do have some weak low level convergence and a ripple rotating around the upper high this afternoon. This should lead to convection popping up today, with the best coverage in the the Ohio River valley later this afternoon into this evening. These showers and storms should wane overnight with another muggy night on tap.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Models showing a cold front sagging southward into the area on Monday...gradually pushing southward on Tuesday. There is considerable spread in the models with the position of this front...which drastically effects the forecast. Used a ECMWF and GFS blend for now...which remains on the northerly side of guidance with the frontal position. This seems reasonable due to the very light flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Guidance is in good agreement with large ridge developing over the Central U.S. by Mid week and a upper level trough digging into the Eastern U.S. Cold front looks to cross the region late Wednesday with a chance for showers and storms but the good news is that this will bring cooler and drier air behind it. Temperatures look to be around normal for this time of year by the end of the week...with highs in the low 80s and lows near 60. However...the break may be short as ridge in the Central U.S. will likely slide east by next weekend...opening the door for tropical moisture into the region once again. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 650 AM Sunday... 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday... Satellite shows decent cirrus deck moving across southern half of CWA...which is keeping fog at bay for most. EKN should improve over the next couple hours. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms today, and have included vicinity thunderstorms where expecting better coverage this afternoon/evening. VFR expected today...however brief MVFR to IFR possible in any showers. Depending on rain...and lingering clouds...will most likely have some areas of dense fog again tonight...with the best chance at EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: T-showers may impact TAF sites. Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008- 013>015-024>026. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MZ

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