Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280128 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 928 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints on the increase through the end of the week. Cold front late Saturday/Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 925 PM Tuesday... Models appear to be on track. Most of the diurnal clouds that developed today have dissipated and winds around the area have become light. Temperatures have cooled into the 60s in most locations with 50s across the highest elevations. Latest temperature guidance continues to indicate the forecasted lows tonight are very reachable. As what usually happens, the MOS guidance for our Cooperative Observer locations based on the GFS indicates temperatures in rural areas will be several degrees cooler than the more urban sites. One example of this is that this guidance shows the low temperature at our office will be in the upper 40s while the low in the lower 50s at the Charleston airport, the official observation site, looks good. As of 230 PM Tuesday... Models continue to settle Canadian high pressure directly over the area tonight, allowing for clear skies after some afternoon cumulus clouds, and near calm winds. This will bring ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. Little change to previous thinking concerning low temperatures tonight, which remain close to but just above record values in the major metropolitan areas. However, record lows may be reached in the more protected valleys by dawn Wednesday. These lows we have forecast are actually on the low side of the vast majority of guidance, but cannot neglect the ideal cooling scenario. In addition, despite the dry air in place, there will likely be some river valley fog later tonight, mainly at CRW and EKN. So, will not get carried away with the fog given the dry air in place. For Wednesday, the high moves off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Under abundant sunshine and still relatively dry air, temperatures will rebound to around 80 degrees or so. Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases: LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear CRW Charleston 51 50 1988 HTS Huntington 51 47 1915 PKB Parkerburg 50 48 1988 EKN Elkins 43 39 1988 BKW Beckley 49 39 1955 CKB Clarksburg 49 46 1927
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... Slow retreat of Canadian high pressure off the coast will translate into warming temperatures through the end of the week with primarily dry weather, although the northwest zones will be exposed to low chances from northern stream upper level energy. No major changes to the forecast overall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances on the increase with an arriving cold front and upper level trough spinning through the Great Lakes. Without a clean passage of the upper low, with it only rotating northward as oppose to eastward, the unsettled weather will tend to linger with the front taking some time to finally exit the mountains. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday... As of 755 PM Tuesday... Latest satellite imagery and surface reports indicate the diurnal clouds that developed today have begun to dissipate. This trend should continue leaving the region with clear skies by 03Z. High pressure will push east across the area tonight. Clear skies and calm winds will result in favorable radiational cooling. As a result, believe river valley fog should form after 06Z with some locations, such as EKN and CRW, seeing IFR or lower conditions from 07Z-12Z. Once the fog dissipates on Wednesday, VFR conditions should prevail with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium tonight for fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley IFR fog later tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JSH

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