Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240234 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1034 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier under high pressure into the weekend. Unsettled weather returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1030 PM Wednesday...With high pressure moving overhead the forecast remains on track and no changes are needed at this time. As of 435 PM Wednesday...Removed any mention of showers from the forecast this afternoon and evening as much drier air aloft pushes in with high pressure. Also, bumped wind speeds up just a bit until sunset, as we should decouple shortly after 0Z Tonight. As of 200 PM Wednesday... Back into a fog pattern with high pressure building and cool and dry air continuing to filter in after a cold frontal passage. Winds will be relatively light. Not much else going on. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... No significant changes necessary to the short term period. Models in good agreement with high pressure in control, with warm sunny days and cool foggy nights/mornings. Could see a few showers or possibly even an isolated thunderstorm across the higher terrain Saturday as the high pressure shifts eastward and the flow becomes more southeasterly. High temps during the period look to range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... Still looking at a chance for showers and thunderstorms particularly in the afternoon hours across the higher terrain as southeasterly flow continues. Weather to become more unsettled early next week, as an upper trough moves east into the region, with showers and thunderstorms, particularly during peak heating hours. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 AM Wednesday... High pressure continues to push into the region tonight. With the loss of heating we will see clouds dissipate and most sites will remain clear through the night. The clear skies combined with weak winds will make for perfect conditions for radiation fog overnight. Valley fog could become locally dense in some areas. Bring VLIFR in the soonest at EKN and all other sites other will see VLIFR likely after 06Z. Have kept fog out of BKW for now, but still some uncertainty there and there is some concern with the weak northerly flow that they could get some restrictions before daybreak. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of river valley fog overnight into Thursday morning will likely vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... River valley fog possible each morning through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/SL NEAR TERM...JW/MPK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MPK

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