Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151829 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 229 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT. FLOW INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT BUT OVERALL FORCING DECREASES WITH FRONT AS IT APPROACHES. IN FACT APPEARS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT PACES LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. SO WHILE SOME SHRA ARE EXPECTED...THINK GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS WITH LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. ELECTED TO ROLL WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN WX GRIDS. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 03-05Z FOR SE OH...SLOWING DOWN ONCE INTO WV WITH TIMING 06Z-12Z LOWLANDS AND EXITING SW VA BY EARLY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING SO HAVE NEGLECTED MENTION OF THUNDER. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN HRS ALONG AND S OF I64. ROLLED WITH LOCAL MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY SPEAKING. TRIED TO STAY A HAIR BELOW GUIDANCE TOMORROW S WV OWING TO CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THEN...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE MID AND UPPER PLAINS...EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND WV ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WEAK TO CALM FLOW...WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK TO PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH DAY. USE A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REFLECT COOL NIGHTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD AFTERNOONS DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AT H850 ABOUT 9C THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS AT START OF OF THIS TIME FRAME...WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE FIGURED FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR SHUT FOR THE RETURN OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. WITH HIGH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCLUDED JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS E OF ELKINS. FIGURING NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH A E AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MBS...DID KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MENTIONED A 20 SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY IN THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE. WILL ACCEPT WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND START INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE DAY 7 FEATURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HRS AMID SOME SCT 3 TO 4 THSD FT CU. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...BRINGING WITH IT THREAT FOR SHRA. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCORPORATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH IN TAFS. LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE DENSE FOG...SAVE FOR PERHAPS KEKN. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF I64 AND IN THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/KBKW/KEKN TAFS. HARD TO FIGURE IF CIGS WILL BE BETWEEN 1-2 THSD FT OR 2-3 THSD FT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD...SWITCHING TO OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT IN QUESTION. CIGS MAY BE TOO LOW POST FRONTAL TOMORROW MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...30

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