Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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713 FXUS61 KRLX 290243 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1043 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts through overnight. Next cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1035 PM Friday... Latest NAM run/00Z is much cleaner with the convection and confines it along the northern boundary of the CWA with the warm front where the elevated instability for our area is greatest. To the south, 500mb heights are rising, stabilizing the mid levels of the troposphere. As of 715 PM Friday... Showers have developed with mid level destabilization and moisture advection into the area. Nose of the 850mb gradient now north of the Ohio River, which is what the showers in that area have fired on. Nose of the 850mb jet will be another focus in the coming hours, especially over the western zones. Overall, have increased the coverage and confidence of POPs over the northwestern half of the CWA. Timing remains a question mark, however. As of 215 PM Friday... Models showing a warm front developing and pushing northward across the area overnight. With very dry air in place in the low and mid levels, precipitation may initially have a hard time forming. Best chances of precipitation are over southeast Ohio where more moisture will be available. Some models showing some training of storms along the front possible in Ohio, so will have to keep an eye out for the possibility of this causing water issues. The warm front will then lift north of the area on Saturday. Looking at the 850 mb temperatures and with plenty of afternoon sunshine expected, will raise high temperatures. Much of the area will once again have dry mid levels Saturday afternoon, so thunderstorms will have a hard time forming. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... Very warm air mass in place overhead still on Sunday. Temps will climb close to 90 again for a large portion of Southern through Central West Virginia. There will be some potential for thunderstorms to develop near max heating Sunday Afternoon, but with fairly dry air aloft with decent Cap, have decided to keep PoP at slight chance to low chance for now. Strong cold front moves in on Monday and showers and storms are likely to be widespread with this system. Strong anomalous low level jet out ahead of the front with GEFS showing 850 mb winds at 3 to 4 standard deviations above with about 60 knots forecast. However, ensemble and operational guidance is in fairly good agreement with the front entering the Ohio Valley Monday morning which would limit severe potential. Will have to keep an eye on how the forecast progresses the next couple of days and if the front slows down there will certainly be potential for severe storms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Friday... Much cooler weather will push in behind the front, but it should remain relatively dry until at least mid week. Forecast guidance then becomes uncertain after that. Deep trough digs across Central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday as surface low ejects northeast out of the SE U.S. and into our region. This could bring heavy rain to the area as upper trough closes off into an upper low and lingers overhead into next weekend. Still very low confidence in this scenario at this time being so late in the period. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 715 PM Friday... Isolated shower development could be a precursor to an active TAF period with more convective development along the Ohio River and towards CKB later in the overnight. Warm front lifting northward providing a focus for development, and then later on, the nose of an 850mb jet pushing from south to north will also enhance shower and storm potential. Since this is warm frontal and warm sector convection, the ceilings will typically stay on the higher side, so even in showers and storms, ceilings should stay VFR and above 4kft. Visibilities are expected to fluctuate per usual in showers and storms. Where prevailing or TEMPO TSRA exists in the TAF, have utilized G25KT for wind potential. Amendments are likely through the evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary. May need more aggressive IFR vis in TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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