-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
BUMPED UP THE I-64 CORRIDOR HIGHS A NOTCH TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS STEERING 500MB REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER...AND WILL SEE ANOTHER
DAY OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD END UP NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED
SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL
DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER
DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT
WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO
OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH
COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70
UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN
STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP
GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CAVU/VFR. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CIRRUS INTO
TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY ALSO LOWER FROM 250 TO 200...BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANGE TO WARRANT MORE THAN ONE LINERS IN MOST CASES TODAY.

SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT FOR
BKW. GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...26