Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230717 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION THERE VS FARTHER E. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES 18-23Z. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE .AFTER O6Z SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM/SL

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