


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --707 FXUS61 KRLX 160606 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 206 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with periodic low amplitude frontal systems passing through. Locally heavy showers and storms each afternoon are possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1037 PM Tuesday... Showers across the northeastern mountains have dissipated with only a few remaining along the Randolph/Pendleton/Tucker County border area. A persistent, but rather slow-moving thunderstorm complex remains to our southwest and will move into our forecast area. CAMs show this system weakening before it enters the Metro Valley and eastern mountains a few hours from now. As of 644 PM Tuesday... No changes needed to the forecast. Seeing a complex of stationary showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern mountains. Will have to monitor for flash flooding across this area due to these cells barely moving. Overall they are lacking in longevity though due to nearly nonexistent shear. As of 125 PM Tuesday... Key Messages: * Tropically influenced airmass remains anchored across the region through the bulk of the forecast * Locally heavy, diurnally enhanced rainfall - water issues may accumulate over the next week * Wet microbursts may produce locally damaging wind gusts, but widespread severe weather is not expected in the next 7 days A mid-level ridge anchored over the southeast and nearly stationary boundary draped west to east across the forecast area are the dominant synoptic features affecting the region through the near term period. South of the front, precipitable water values are around the 75th+ percentile for this time of the year today, increasing to 90th+ percentile for Wednesday. Although mid-level lapse rates remain rather paltry (~5.5C/km) typical of a tropically influenced airmass, ample low level moisture and surface heating should yield 1000-2000J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating this afternoon. With deep-layer shear forecast to remain weak, the convective mode will strongly favor pulse-type cells and loosely organized multicell clusters. The probability of thunder in any 1-hour period peaks between 20Z and 00Z at around 30-40% for many locations in and near the higher terrain. Given the degree of instability and moisture, any storm will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with a few instances of gusty winds associated with wet microbursts. Convection will wane tonight with the loss of solar heating. However, lingering outflow boundaries from any afternoon activity could serve as a focus for isolated showers or a storm overnight, a low-probability scenario reflected in the NBM`s overnight PoPs of 10- 20%. For Wednesday, will see similar convective coverage (isolated to scattered) early afternoon into mid-afternoon, with an approaching mid-level wave from the west providing forcing for ascent for more substantial coverage heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. Models to depict a belt of stronger H500 flow associated with this feature across the Middle Ohio Valley yielding an uptick in deep layer shear to 35-40KTs. This should yield at least some potential for rotating storms in this area through the late afternoon and early evening. The primary threat with this activity would damaging wind gusts and locally very heavy rainfall, although the progressive nature of the storms should help to limit dwell time over any given location. While low level veering of the wind profile will be fairly limited, given the propensity for rotating storm and fairly low LCL values couldn`t rule out some sort of mesoscale oddity yielding a quick spin-up, but the probability is very low. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 125 PM Tuesday... Not much change in the pattern is expected in the extended forecast with upper level ridging remaining over the southeast with high zonal flow across the north featuring periodic weak frontal boundaries that approach and stall over the region. This will maintain a tropically influenced airmass with relatively weak flow through the period. Central guidance continues to overdo afternoon mixed dew points with values in the upper 70s, reality will be closer to the lower 70s. This should keep heat indices below advisory criteria with highs in the low 90s. The main concern will continue to be locally heavy rain and with such a long period of diurnal enhanced locally heavy rain, we will continue to accumulate areas of overly moist soils more prone to flooding with additional heavy rainfall. Depending on antecedent conditions, may eventually need a flash flood watch for some areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Tuesday... As mentioned in the short term discussion, largely more of the same is expected heading into the weekend and into early next week with low amplitude frontal boundaries interacting with a tropically influenced air mass. Models are in fairly good agreement even through the end of the forecast with the subtropical ridge not expected to go anywhere in the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 200 AM Wednesday... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across southeast VA and southern WV. After a brief lull occurs early this morning, showers and storms are expected to spread back across the area during the day. Precipitation coverage should be most extensive during the afternoon and evening hours. MVFR/IFR will be possible within storms during the TAF period. Patches of fog have already made an appearance at a few terminals and may expand to additional sites before daybreak; however, coverage should continue to be limited by clouds and some wind. MVFR or worse conditions will be possible wherever fog does form, then restrictions will improve as fog dissipates after sunrise. Winds should remain light with a south to south west direction during the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium for fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary from forecast. Fog formation could also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/16/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M L L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through the week. IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight, especially where any heavy rain falls during the day.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP/LTC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...20