-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 310614
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OPTED TO NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS AREAL COVERAGE
IS STILL LACKING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR THE OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE NIGHT IS COLD AND
CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...HOWEVER...ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD HELP
SUCK UP ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SO NOT GOING WITH MVFR IN TAFS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW