Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021754 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4 DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS. THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS. BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR/LOCALLY IFR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE MORE PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS....SUCH AS EKN. AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW DYING MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPS FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 18Z AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN GENERAL...GOING WITH INCREASING VFR CLOUDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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