-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM SYSTEM
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIFT/FORCING IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THINK THIS
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WITHOUT A LOT OF FANFARE IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE MAINLY A PAVEMENT-WETTER AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE FORECAST. IT IS FOR THIS
REASON THAT POPS ARE KEPT LOW...AS MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN HOUR BY
HOUR BASIS IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

FRONT WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES DOWN MODESTLY IN ITS WAKE...BUT
MAY GIVE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM A CHANCE A COUPLE OF FLAKES.
THE HIT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT MORE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
TERRITORY ON SUNDAY.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...STUCK WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A QUIET AND MODERATING PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF OUR
AREA AND ALLOWS MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH...THAT AREA BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S SUNDAY...BUT REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S
BY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT US MID WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MID WEEK...BUT
HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN AT GREAT ODDS ON THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEW EURO HAS NOT
ONLY JOINED THE OTHER MODELS IN NOT PHASING AND KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...BUT IS ALSO
FLATTER AND FASTER PER OTHER MODELS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. STILL...IT IS A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUITE UNUSUAL IN THAT THESE LOWS
USUALLY FIND A WAY TO SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER...WE WILL SEE.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CUTTING OFF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FEEDING UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AND RAIN IT WILL
BE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...WITH QUITE MILD
AIR CONTINUING MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW WILL CHANGE THE RAIN
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT SOME UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.  DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND DOMINATE INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR MIST IN PKB TONIGHT MATERIALIZING AS ADVERTISED BY LAMP
GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP THAT THROUGH EARLY DAWN SATURDAY.

CEILING LOWER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND THE 21Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. EXPECTING CEILINGS IN THE 1.5-2.5KFT RANGE
WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND MINIMAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
WITH MVFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. BRIEF IFR IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 03/08/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26