Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241438 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 938 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather today into tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Cooler Sunday. Milder through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday... Forecast on track. As of 610 AM Friday... Made some minor updates to temperatures this morning based on current obs and trends. As of 1230 AM Friday... Quiet day expected today with mostly sunny conditions as high pressure gradually drifts east. Stayed on the higher side of the guidance envelope today for high, with generally 50s to around 60 degrees. Fairly weak system approaches tonight. Have clouds on the increase, with some low end POPs arriving prior to sunrise across the northwestern part of the forecast area. Southerly winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer, but low spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. This makes the low forecast a bit tough, ended up a degree or so warming across the west, and a bit cooler east where the clouds will arrive later. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Weak cold front passes Friday night/Saturday morning providing a reinforcement to more fall like temperatures for the end of the weekend, but this will be the last cooler push of air for a while. Scattered showers expected, possibly changing to light non accumulating snow above 3000ft. High pressure then moves back into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians for the beginning of the work week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Colder air stays well to the north for the extended forecast with heights moving back towards 570dkm and 850hPa temperatures in the upper single digits. Mild weather will dominate through mid week before the next chance for an airmass change arrives Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 AM Friday... High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place with generally clear skies through the TAF period. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a weak system approaches from the west. Low level flow becomes southwesterly today, and then more southerly tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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