Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010558 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1258 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...WITH VIRGA TRANSITIONING TO MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TRICKY AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD THIS MORNING SO ISSUED SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE AREA IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SMALL IN SCALE AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. DUE TO THIS SMALL SCALE AND ELUSIVE NATURE...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS NORTH. SO IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IT WILL BE SNOWING WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S. WINDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVER SE OHIO TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. 12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR FOR NOW...A TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO MVFR EARLIER. THESE SITES WILL ALSO BE IN THE COOLER FROZEN PRECIPITATION AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY. TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 02/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JW

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