Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 111743 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 143 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS MIXED OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD WITH DENSE EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG...AFTERNOON CU AND A WIDE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...THERE MAY BE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. BLENDED IN MET AND MAV FOR HIGHER HIGHS TODAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES DURING AFTERNOON HEATING ON SATURDAY. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...ENDING UP BACK AROUND THE 1.8 TO 2.0 MARK BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OH/SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHERN IL BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME STORMS ON THE STRONGER SIDE...MAINLY IN OHIO. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD...GOOD FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AND AVOID WIDESPREAD WATER ISSUES...ALTHOUGH REPETITIVE STORMS COULD DEFINITELY CREATE PROBLEMS WITH TIME. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS A SYSTEM INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL THEN MOVE FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CUMULUS FORMATION THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY REQUIRE A VCSH/VCTS FOR EKN...BUT PREVAILING DICTATES DRY WEATHER WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A TEMPO GROUP. MORE ROBUST CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ON THE RIDGES 20 TO 30 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT WILL SCALE IT BACK JUST A TOUCH IN TERMS OF DURATION OF THE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG THROUGH 12Z SAT COULD VARY. MAY NEED A BRIEF AMD OR TEMPO FOR PASSING -TSRA AT EKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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