Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 271916
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
316 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather
through the weekend. Northwest flow with several upper level
disturbances next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...
Dewpoints remaining stubbornly high across the Coal Fields over to
the Tri State area as dewpoints have come down a bit across N
zones. With temps already in the lower 90s and heat index values
hovering either side of 100...elected to hoist a heat advisory
thru 22Z for those locations.
We continue to carrie low pops with isolated wording across the
mountains this afternoon...shifting into the Lowlands early this
evening. This in association with some deeper moisture advecting
in from the SW around the ridge. Off to the W...expect the line of
convection across IN and W OH to weaken by the time it gets close
to SE OH but may provide Perry/Morgan/Vinton with a shra/tsra
threat late aftn thru dusk.
Any activity will wane by 03Z with another warm and muggy night on
tap. Some sct clouds may form overnight with the deeper moisture
axis lingering over the area. This along with a llvl puff should
prevent much of the dense river valley fog.
It will be yet another hot and humid day on Sunday...though a bit
better of a chance of aftn shra/tsra with the aforementioned
moisture axis over the area. The best chance appears to be along
the OH River and SE OH late in the day...though still low pops
with sct wording.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...
Upper level ridging overhead continues. There will be a chance
showers and storms Sunday night...early in the forecast period.
However...shower activity will likely wane before midnight. Weak
short wave will enter the region Monday and should be enough to
kick off scattered showers and storms in the moisture rich air
mass overhead...however these will have their maximum coverage in
the late afternoon near max heating and after sunset any shower
activity will decrease. For Tuesday the model guidance is in
fairly good agreement with weak surface trough developing showers
and storms over the Eastern West Virginia Mountains. For now...have
just went with low chance PoP...as activity should be fairly
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...
Guidance is in good agreement with large ridge developing over
the Central U.S. by Mid week and a upper level trough digging into
the Eastern U.S. Cold front looks to cross the region late
Wednesday with a chance for showers and storms but the good news
is that this will bring cooler and drier air behind it.
Temperatures look to be around normal for this time of year by the
end of the week...with highs in the low 80s and lows near 60.
However...the break may be short as ridge in the Central U.S. will
likely slide east by next weekend...opening the door for tropical
moisture into the region once again.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...
18Z Saturday through 18Z Sunday...
VFR conditions prevail thru evening amid a sct cu field. There is
just an isolated threat for a shra/tsra across the area. Fog
forecast tonight is tricky as some low level moisture will be
around...maybe resulting in some sct clouds. This combined with
some llvl wind off the deck should mitigate dense valley fog save
for perhaps KEKN.
VFR conditions on Sunday with low chances for shra/tsra beyond 18z
in the aftn.
Light SE flow thru the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms through
WV...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
OH...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.