Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271916 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 316 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Northwest flow with several upper level disturbances next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Saturday... Dewpoints remaining stubbornly high across the Coal Fields over to the Tri State area as dewpoints have come down a bit across N zones. With temps already in the lower 90s and heat index values hovering either side of 100...elected to hoist a heat advisory thru 22Z for those locations. We continue to carrie low pops with isolated wording across the mountains this afternoon...shifting into the Lowlands early this evening. This in association with some deeper moisture advecting in from the SW around the ridge. Off to the W...expect the line of convection across IN and W OH to weaken by the time it gets close to SE OH but may provide Perry/Morgan/Vinton with a shra/tsra threat late aftn thru dusk. Any activity will wane by 03Z with another warm and muggy night on tap. Some sct clouds may form overnight with the deeper moisture axis lingering over the area. This along with a llvl puff should prevent much of the dense river valley fog. It will be yet another hot and humid day on Sunday...though a bit better of a chance of aftn shra/tsra with the aforementioned moisture axis over the area. The best chance appears to be along the OH River and SE OH late in the day...though still low pops with sct wording. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... Upper level ridging overhead continues. There will be a chance showers and storms Sunday night...early in the forecast period. However...shower activity will likely wane before midnight. Weak short wave will enter the region Monday and should be enough to kick off scattered showers and storms in the moisture rich air mass overhead...however these will have their maximum coverage in the late afternoon near max heating and after sunset any shower activity will decrease. For Tuesday the model guidance is in fairly good agreement with weak surface trough developing showers and storms over the Eastern West Virginia Mountains. For now...have just went with low chance PoP...as activity should be fairly scattered. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Guidance is in good agreement with large ridge developing over the Central U.S. by Mid week and a upper level trough digging into the Eastern U.S. Cold front looks to cross the region late Wednesday with a chance for showers and storms but the good news is that this will bring cooler and drier air behind it. Temperatures look to be around normal for this time of year by the end of the week...with highs in the low 80s and lows near 60. However...the break may be short as ridge in the Central U.S. will likely slide east by next weekend...opening the door for tropical moisture into the region once again. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... 18Z Saturday through 18Z Sunday... VFR conditions prevail thru evening amid a sct cu field. There is just an isolated threat for a shra/tsra across the area. Fog forecast tonight is tricky as some low level moisture will be around...maybe resulting in some sct clouds. This combined with some llvl wind off the deck should mitigate dense valley fog save for perhaps KEKN. VFR conditions on Sunday with low chances for shra/tsra beyond 18z in the aftn. Light SE flow thru the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008- 013>016-024>027. OH...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...30

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