Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 061658 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT. YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET? PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION... FURTHER SOUTH? THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH. DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT. HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS. THINKING IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925 TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB/RPY AVIATION...MZ

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