Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021819 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 219 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT. ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40 KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO. AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS. 06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA. AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076- 085>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JMV

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