Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010216 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. 715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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