Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310558 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST/INTENSIFYING OFF NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... TRIMMED UP THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE POPS LATE MORNING FRIDAY. ALSO NUDGED UP THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE TRENDING THEM DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TO OUR EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD AID THE FORMATION OF SOME FOG...BUT WITH THE BUILDING CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG TO BE DENSE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE COOL...HOWEVER...DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME GUIDANCE AS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOWS OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS AND SW VA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E TN AND W NC. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 03Z. THIS TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGE TOPS IN SW VA...NE KY...C AND S WV AFTER 06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO AREAS PREDAWN SATURDAY. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND PERHAPS EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE UPPER LOW. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE WV...THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH MODEL CONSENSUS RANGING 1 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS PERHAPS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE QUICKLY ERODES SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UPSLOPE LIFT REMAINS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WITH A UNFAVORABLE N TRAJECTORY TO THE FLOW AND MARGINAL SATURATION FOR ICE CRYSTALS...HARD TO FIGURE UPSLOPE SNOW. HAVE LINGERED HIGH POPS FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE N MOUNTAINS FOR A TIME AND KEPT IT SNOW FOR NOW WITH MAYBE ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES. THIS COULD END UP BEING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR DICKENSON/BUCHANAN IN SW VA AND MCDOWELL/WYOMING IN SE WV WITH COUNTY WIDE AVG CRITERIA BEING 2 INCHES. ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FROM RALEIGH COUNTY AND UP THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL AS HIGHER CRITERIA. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS. HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW WE GO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADIENT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS PERHAPS. BEST CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WOULD BE ACROSS SE OH/NE KY AND W WV WHERE CLEARING OCCURS AND WINDS SLACKEN.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES UP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BRIEF CLEARING OVER WEST VIRGINIA MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL MVFR VALLEY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AT 5 TO 10 THSD FT INCREASING W TO E 06Z TO 15Z TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 15Z...SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER TRI STATE AROUND HTS INCLUDING NE KY AND SE OHIO 18Z TO 21Z AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES...AHEAD OF STRONG 500 MB LOW. WITH THIS SUPPORT DROPPING SE THROUGH SOUTHERN WV...TRIED TO BE SLOW LOWERING CONDITIONS FURTHER N...INCLUDING VCNTY CKB AND NORTH CENTRAL WV. CEILINGS LOWERING INTO 1 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN RAIN...BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW MAINLY S OF A HTS-CRW LINE BY 03Z AND MOSTLY SNOW BY 03Z OVER DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN SW VA UNDER THE COOL POOL ALOFT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SE INTO THE BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 00Z TO 03Z. IN CONTRAST...WINDS NEAR SURFACE REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WV INCLUDING CKB THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR IN RAIN/SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING AROUND EKN AND BKW.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS NEAR TERM...26/LS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB

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