Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161315 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 915 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the latter part of the work week, and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 915 AM Monday... Forecast on track. As of 615 AM Monday... No changes necessary. As of 355 AM Monday... Cold front just to the east of the CWA, with just a few lingering light showers across the higher terrain. Expect much of the area to start out rather cloudy, before scattering out as the day progresses. Much lower dew points have already ushered into the area, with dew points generally in the 40s area wide. High pressure will continue to build east into the region today and tonight, with noticeably cooler temperatures. Still expecting a bit of wind through this afternoon, particularly in the mountainous counties, but will gradually decouple tonight as high pressure progged to be overhead. With the very dry air mass expected to be in place, and high overhead, expecting a night of good radiational cooling, with a widespread frost expected across the lowlands, and freezing temperatures across the mountains late tonight. Went ahead and issued a freeze watch for tonight/Tuesday morning across the higher terrain, and will allow the day shift to evaluate any issuance of frost advisory today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Monday... High pressure rules the roost this period, with cool, bone dry weather. Heights rise early on, as the upper level short wave trough that drove the cool air into the area, lifts out. For Wednesday, the northern stream jet is well north of the forecast area, the area itself being in a rex block between a northern stream ridge, and southern stream trough. A northern stream trough pushes a cold front across the Great Lakes Wednesday night. The trough and cold front never get as far south as the forecast area. Rather, high pressure behind the cold front bridges across Thursday, resulting in high pressure centered right over the area Thursday night. The end result is to perhaps slow the warming trend. Lowered daytime dew points from central guidance in the very dry air, via a consensus MOS and global model blend, and lowered low temperatures from central guidance via COOP MOS. This yields values similar to previous forecast, with frost likely again Wednesday morning. RH values dip into the 20s Wednesday afternoon, and well down into the 30s Tuesday and Thursday afternoons. However, light winds will limit the fire threat. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM Monday... High pressure continues to rule the roost Friday, before drifting east over the the weekend. This will continue the dry weather, with a warming trend over the weekend, in southerly flow around the back side of the exiting high. The next cold front is progged to arrive Monday, with the chance for showers, as the driving upper level short wave trough pushes the southern edge of the northern stream jet southward into the forecast area. Central guidance temperatures accepted, but daytime dew points lowered via a consensus MOS and global model blend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 615 AM Monday... Generally VFR conditions outside of higher terrain, where MVFR and IFR conditions linger, including at sites KEKN and KBKW. Still expecting all areas to be VFR by 16-18Z. Generally light northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in the teens, particularly across the higher terrain. After 00Z, winds will go light to calm, with patchy river valley fog possible generally after 08Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Higher terrain may not improve to VFR as quickly as forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L H M M H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Patchy dense overnight and morning valley fog this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for WVZ031-032-039-040-517>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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