Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 040027 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 820 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. CONVECTION MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COULD ISOLATED AREAS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOCAL DOWNPOURS VERSUS THE HEAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT THAT WE CAN NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TOTALLY. RAP SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX IN CENTRAL OHIO DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTH. DESPITE THE LINGERING CONVECTION...STILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN. YET...THE LINGERING PATCHES OF CLOUDS COULD INTERFERE WITH THE FOG FORMATION. SO ANOTHER HARD HOUR BY HOUR FORECAST CONCERNING THE FOG FOR 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LINGERING CONVECTION...THINKING MOSTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...VERSUS THE FOG FORMATION. OHIO AND NORTHERN WV SEEM A BIT MORE VULNERABLE FOR THAT LATE NIGHT CONVECTION....COMPARED TO FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE LINGERING PATCHES OF CLOUDS COULD INTERRUPT THAT FOG FORMATION. SO CONFIDENCE STILL LEFT AT MEDIUM DUE TO FORECASTING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z. HAVE FOG FORMING FIRST IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...AND IN NRN WV WHERE IT RAINED DURING THURSDAY EVENING. SO HAVE FOG FORMING AT PKB BEFORE CRW. OTHER UNKNOWNS...WILL LOWER STRATOCU OR CU FORM AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING. STILL HAVE VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MAY NEED AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS IF STORMS FORM/MOVE TOWARDS TERMINALS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/04/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.