Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251439 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1039 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid as mid summer like conditions return. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Thursday... Mid level system will exit the mountains over the next couple of hrs...taking the bkn line of shra with it. In its wake some subsidence in the mid levels should keep the area dry to end the afternoon. There is some concern on heat index values approaching criteria...particularly over SE OH where dewpoints are a tad higher. However...an abundance of low level moisture should result in quite a bit of cu to limit afternoon temperatures a bit. As of 330 AM Thursday... Its back to summer as high pressure aloft builds over the region. Prior to that...models have a weak upper disturbance dropping southeast across the area this morning. While the model QPF may be overdone...there is a soupy and conditionally unstable airmass in place with this feature. While the remnants of upstream convection with this feature is dissipating at 3 am...we still look for widely scattered to scattered convection this morning as the feature tracks southeast. Thereafter...under the building upper high and warming aloft...it will be hot and humid this afternoon with sunshine...and convection should be limited mostly to the mountain elevated heat source. Conditions...however...are expected to be below heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Look for highs around 90 degrees. For tonight...look for warm and muggy conditions with lack of convection as the warm upper high continues to build.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As 335 AM Thursday... Hot and humid weather to continue across the region...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 6 AM Thursday... 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday... Being in the warm sector...models show southwesterly winds just above the surface strong enough to prevent fog formation early this morning. Models also show an upper disturbance across mainly the eastern portion of our area this morning...enough to generate at least scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the now moist atmosphere...especially across the northeast portions. For today...we expect VFR conditions to prevail this period. Look for clouds SCT-BKN 4000-7000 feet AGL...except lower VFR ceilings in widely scattered to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly this morning across the northeast. After 00z...any lingering convection in the mountains rapidly dissipates early this evening with loss of heating...then generally SCT-BKN 5000-8000 foot AGL across the area with lack of convection tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western slopes. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L H M H H H H H H H H L AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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