Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 101913 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 213 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Saturday... Clouds will be increasing tonight as mid and high level moisture advect into the area ahead of the next system. WAA will be increasing over the upper Ohio Valley on low level SW flow. Some good isentropic lift will develop as well, which will allow snow to overspread portions of the upper Ohio Valley. It still appears most of this will fall just north of the RLX CWA, perhaps clipping Perry/Morgan over to Clarksburg/Elkins later tonight. The consensus in the hi res models though keeps all of precip north of the CWA with the GFS/ECMWF showing QPF over the aforementioned areas. Given the amount of low level dry air in place...tend to favor keeping the precip north of the area but will leave a tight gradient of POPs across our northern fringe counties for some wiggle room. The best chance for any accumulations would across Perry/Morgan where a tenth or two is possible. This all pushes north Sunday morning with mainly a dry forecast for the daylight hours in broad SW flow aloft/SE flow at the surface. Expect some sunshine in the afternoon across SW VA and a good portion of WV. This along with downsloping should allow temps to approach 50 in the typical banana belt areas along US 119/I 79 corridor.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Models are in stunning agreement with timing and intensity of Sunday night into Monday precip, so confidence is rather high at this point that there shouldn`t be too much snow in our CWA. All said and done less than an inch and most of that in the north while the southern half of our CWA may escape the snow altogether. Instead, rain will be the predominant weather maker as this system passes. I will throw the caveat that a slight nudge colder could change the forecast to more of a snow event, but at this time that seems highly unlikely. Even the mountains escape most of the snow though lingering cold air may cause a bit of a freezing rain threat. After the Sun night/Mon system passes, high pressure builds for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM Friday... There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be ushered in by a wave on the front. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Saturday... Low level WAA is eradicating the MVFR stratocu this afternoon from south to north. CKB/EKN should improve to VFR around 21Z or so. VFR conditions for tonight amid increasing high and mid level clouds. The exception will be across portions of SE OH and N WV where cigs will lower in response to increasing isentropic lift which will allow snow to break out, sending conditions into IFR. Current thinking is this will stay just north of PKB/CKB/EKN, though cannot rule out a brief window for light snow but confidence too low to put any mention in those TAFS. SW flow aloft/SE surface increases on Sunday as any snow across the north shifts well north of the area. The result is VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium SE OH/N WV. High elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Light snow tonight may sneak into northern TAF sites which would bring MVFR into play. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/DTC NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...30

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