Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180713 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 313 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level disturbance, combine with moisture from lake Michigan will promote light snow showers today through Tuesday morning. Clipper system crosses midweek more snow and strong gusty winds.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 302 AM Monday... A strong H500 positively tilted trough axis pivots down across the Ohio Valley and WV today and tonight. This feature will combine with cold air aloft (around -10C at H850), and a fetch of moisture from the Lake Michigan to promote scattered snow showers across the area through tonight. However, a well-mixed boundary layer with wide surface dewpoint depression, will promote melting and evaporation of hydrometeors, preventing some of the precipitation to reach the ground, and resulting in periods of sprinkles or flurries across the lowlands today. Although little or no snow accumulations are expected across the lowlands, 1 to 4 inches of snow could accumulate along the western slopes and higher elevations of our northeast mountains through early Tuesday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible. Accumulation averages expected not quite reaching advisory criteria over those zones. In coordination with neighboring offices, opted to hold off on issuance as heavier snow accumulations will occur during the overnight hours Monday night. Winds aloft will be west northwest 20 to 30 knots. Expect some of these winds to mix down under CAA to produce surface wind gusts up to 20 knots across the lowlands, and up to 30 knots over the higher elevations. With cold air in place, today`s afternoon temperatures will only reach the lower 40s in the lowlands and the 20s/30s along the higher terrain. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 20s in the lowlands, ranging into the teens across the higher elevations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Strong northwest flow behind exiting upper-level trough keeps gusty winds around through the day Tuesday, with a wind advisory looking likely across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties late Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers will be tapering off Tuesday morning with a few residual upslope snow showers lasting into the afternoon. Tuesday will be 7 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday with the lowlands reaching the low 50s in spots. Secondary shortwave trough(clipper system) moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Reintroducing chances for snow and rain showers across the mountains Tuesday night. Additional snow accumulations look iffy, but minimal snowfall is possible across the West Virginia Ski Country. Fire weather could be a concern Tuesday afternoon as RH values are forecasted to be in the 20s and lower 30s across the forecast area and winds will be gusty; recent moisture that will be picked up today could mitigate this threat though. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Largely drying out Wednesday night and Thursday with high pressure at the surface underneath strong northwest flow. Thursday afternoon will certainly be a concern for fire weather as breezy to gusty northwest winds will mix down drier air, creating afternoon RHs forecasted to be in the 20s. Models are starting to agree on a track for our weekend system. The southern stream trough looks to track across the deep south on Friday, then moves northeast through the Piedmont of VA/NC/SC and the DelMarVa. Without a direct hit from this system, kept chance PoPs Friday through Saturday, due to the proximity of the low and energy from the system moving over. There does appear to be a brief window of snow showers that may occur across SE Ohio and the northeastern mountains Friday morning, but at this time confidence is low that there will be impacts or accumulations. Guidance is trending for warmer temperatures later this coming weekend/start of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Monday... Widespread VFR conditions under gusty winds will prevail through the period. Satellite imagery and METARs show a 7,000 feet stratocu deck over the area to start the period. Latest trends indicate cloud erosion from the west and south. This clearing will reach BKW, PKB and HTS early tonight, with clouds persisting over CKB, and EKN through the early Monday morning. A strong upper level trough will pivot across the OH Valley and WV during the day Monday into Monday night. This feature will provide upper level forcing, to enhance moisture from Lake Michigan into snow showers across the area through early Tuesday morning. Little or no accumulations are anticipated across the lowland terminals. However, upslope snow will develop to bring light snow accumulations over EKN later this afternoon through tonight. Still general guidance suggest VFR conditions under snow showers at EKN, which will deviate to at least MVFR ceilings during the snow showers. Outside snow showers, stratocu bases will generally be 4-5 kft with visibility unrestricted. Gusty west to northwest surface flow will gradually diminish tonight, but then pick back up a bit late Monday morning, all beneath light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/18/24 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible in the mountains Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ

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