Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 180713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
313 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level disturbance, combine with moisture from lake Michigan
will promote light snow showers today through Tuesday morning.
Clipper system crosses midweek more snow and strong gusty winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 302 AM Monday...
A strong H500 positively tilted trough axis pivots down across the
Ohio Valley and WV today and tonight. This feature will combine with
cold air aloft (around -10C at H850), and a fetch of moisture from
the Lake Michigan to promote scattered snow showers across the area
through tonight. However, a well-mixed boundary layer with wide
surface dewpoint depression, will promote melting and evaporation of
hydrometeors, preventing some of the precipitation to reach the
ground, and resulting in periods of sprinkles or flurries across the
lowlands today.
Although little or no snow accumulations are expected across the
lowlands, 1 to 4 inches of snow could accumulate along the western
slopes and higher elevations of our northeast mountains through
early Tuesday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
Accumulation averages expected not quite reaching advisory criteria
over those zones. In coordination with neighboring offices, opted to
hold off on issuance as heavier snow accumulations will occur during
the overnight hours Monday night.
Winds aloft will be west northwest 20 to 30 knots. Expect some
of these winds to mix down under CAA to produce surface wind
gusts up to 20 knots across the lowlands, and up to 30 knots
over the higher elevations.
With cold air in place, today`s afternoon temperatures will only
reach the lower 40s in the lowlands and the 20s/30s along the higher
terrain. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 20s in the
lowlands, ranging into the teens across the higher elevations.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Strong northwest flow behind exiting upper-level trough keeps gusty
winds around through the day Tuesday, with a wind advisory looking
likely across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph
counties late Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers will be tapering
off Tuesday morning with a few residual upslope snow showers lasting
into the afternoon. Tuesday will be 7 to 10 degrees warmer than
Monday with the lowlands reaching the low 50s in spots.
Secondary shortwave trough(clipper system) moves through Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Reintroducing chances for snow and rain
showers across the mountains Tuesday night. Additional snow
accumulations look iffy, but minimal snowfall is possible across the
West Virginia Ski Country. Fire weather could be a concern Tuesday
afternoon as RH values are forecasted to be in the 20s and lower 30s
across the forecast area and winds will be gusty; recent moisture
that will be picked up today could mitigate this threat though.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Largely drying out Wednesday night and Thursday with high pressure
at the surface underneath strong northwest flow. Thursday afternoon
will certainly be a concern for fire weather as breezy to gusty
northwest winds will mix down drier air, creating afternoon RHs
forecasted to be in the 20s.
Models are starting to agree on a track for our weekend system. The
southern stream trough looks to track across the deep south on
Friday, then moves northeast through the Piedmont of VA/NC/SC and
the DelMarVa. Without a direct hit from this system, kept chance
PoPs Friday through Saturday, due to the proximity of the low and
energy from the system moving over.
There does appear to be a brief window of snow showers that may
occur across SE Ohio and the northeastern mountains Friday
morning, but at this time confidence is low that there will be
impacts or accumulations. Guidance is trending for warmer
temperatures later this coming weekend/start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Monday...
Widespread VFR conditions under gusty winds will prevail through
the period. Satellite imagery and METARs show a 7,000 feet
stratocu deck over the area to start the period. Latest trends
indicate cloud erosion from the west and south. This clearing
will reach BKW, PKB and HTS early tonight, with clouds
persisting over CKB, and EKN through the early Monday morning.
A strong upper level trough will pivot across the OH Valley and
WV during the day Monday into Monday night. This feature will
provide upper level forcing, to enhance moisture from Lake
Michigan into snow showers across the area through early Tuesday
morning. Little or no accumulations are anticipated across the
lowland terminals. However, upslope snow will develop to bring
light snow accumulations over EKN later this afternoon through
tonight. Still general guidance suggest VFR conditions under
snow showers at EKN, which will deviate to at least MVFR
ceilings during the snow showers. Outside snow showers, stratocu
bases will generally be 4-5 kft with visibility unrestricted.
Gusty west to northwest surface flow will gradually diminish
tonight, but then pick back up a bit late Monday morning, all
beneath light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF
amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR
conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/18/24
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible in the
mountains Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ