Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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844 FXUS61 KRLX 231545 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1145 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong cold front and low pressure system cross this evening and tonight. Much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1150 AM Monday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Cold frontal boundary at 1545Z across central KY, and pushing eastward, with area of heavier rain evident on radar. Front will push east across the CWA this afternoon and evening, exiting to the CWA later tonight. Expect an uptick in precipitation this afternoon and evening as it does so, along with continued gusty winds. Later tonight, general drying trend as front exits to the east of the area. Will still be some lingering showers, and plenty of cloud cover in the overnight hours A chance for showers, and cooler weather is expected on Tuesday, as an upper low/trough pushes into the region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Models indicate a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending south, well east of our eastern mountains Tuesday. An upper level trough will cross Tuesday and Wednesday. This trough will provide some moisture and lift, allowing for a chance of showers. With colder air aloft, could see some snow flakes in the higher elevations of the northern WV mountains. By Tuesday night, models show H850 temperatures reach minus 2-3C, suggesting a widespread area with surface temperatures at or below 36 degrees over the lowlands. This poses a threat for a widespread frost event Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Mainly dry Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... A high pressure system will build over the area, to provide dry weather conditions Thursday and Friday. Strong cold front will move into the area from the west over the weekend. There are minor differences in the arrival timing among the GFS and ECMWF models. This looks like a progressive system, so rainfall accumulations, although heavy at times, could be minor. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 AM Monday... A strong cold front will cross late today. Ahead of the front, clouds and precipitation will be on the increase driven by strong southeasterly flow. Winds at 850mb will be increasing to 50-60kts by this afternoon, and have included gusty conditions in each TAF. Strongest surface winds will be at higher elevation terminals. Have included a one hour slot of IFR visibilities at each TAF site to account for strongest showers just along and ahead of the cold front. Timing on this may be off, but can be tweaked as things progress today. With a fair amount of cloud cover and some lingering flow expected tonight, did not include any post rain fog -- however if any breaks develop and winds decouple, fog will become more likely. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers may vary by an hour or two. Could get valley fog tonight if clouds break. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M L L L H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L M H H H H L H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M L M H L H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M L M M L H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings if frost does not occur. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/MC NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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