Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240641 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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230 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN PER CURRENT TRENDS. THIS PROMPTED THE ADDITION OF SOME FROST...ALTHOUGH THE FORMATION OF DEW EARLY ON MAY PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. 200 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED THE CLEARING...AND HENCE THE FOG...FASTER AND FARTHER E. 1000 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREV DISCN... MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY WILL CREATE. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD. FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH. TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING. WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS WARM. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MEET. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC. GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO WILL HOLD POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY. WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI. OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD. VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z SAT. MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SAT. CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM AGAIN FRI NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/24/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM

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