Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051457 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATED 1045 AM UPDATE... EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD. STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016- 018-024>029-033>038. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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