Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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448 FXUS61 KRLX 281759 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings a stellar night, before yielding to a southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through Saturday. Cold front crosses Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As usual in very tranquil weather, models are in very good agreement, with high pressure dominating our area this period. Our high pressure center will continue to shift to our east. Thus, after a milder night, increasing southerly winds and abundant sunshine on Thursday will boost temperatures well into the 80s, along with a modest increase in humidity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Broad high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast, will extend west into WV Thursday night. This will continue to bring mostly clear skies and warm temperatures through Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the northwest stalling to our north Saturday. Its vicinity could enhance the formation of showers or storms during the afternoon hours. Models show a series of upper level shortwaves that should keep the warm sector convectively active through the weekend. Overall, dry Thursday and Thursday night with PoPs increasing to likely by Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... By Sunday, with the weakened stationary front just north of the area, chances for pcpn diminish to bring dry conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Additional upper waves will keep unsettled weather through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Til 12Z Thursday... High pressure brings VFR with scattered cirrus. Fog is not expected tonight outside of a possible brief period of MVFR in the most protected valleys around sunrise Thursday. For now will leave EKN out of fog tonight. Near calm to light south winds. After 12Z Thursday... Continued VFR with scattered cirrus, but as the high pressure shifts to our east, look for winds to increase from the southwest at 7-12 KTS with some higher gusts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV

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