Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221858 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 158 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary front meanders about the area through the end of the week, as surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall possible into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Tuesday... Low pressure wave exiting today has pushed the southwest to northeast oriented front southeastward into the Appalachians, and it will push through the remainder of the area in its wake. In light flow behind the front in cool, moist low level air, low clouds, along with areas of fog and drizzle are likely to form tonight. The next wave will push the front back northward, through the area, on Friday, especially with the help of daytime mixing. there is also the chance for showers on the north side of the front tonight into Friday, even likely northern tier early Friday morning, on developing nocturnal warm advection north of the front, which increases with the approach of the next wave. That wave is likely to bring rain to the middle Ohio Valley again Friday, mainly west of the Ohio River. Figuring a half to three quarters of an inch of rain there Friday, which will be just enough to keep Ohio streams up, or bring them back up, out of their banks in some cases. More importantly, this is yet another round that will add water to the headwaters of the Ohio River across the upper Ohio Valley, where higher amounts will fall. Temperatures fine tuned to reflect the baroclinic zone across the area through tonight. That zone then shift north of the area, with the front, on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 155 PM Thursday... Expect significant hydrologic issues in low lying areas, streams, and creeks, eventually leading to mainstem river flooding, especially late Saturday and early Sunday onwards. Main weather headline is that a surface front remains draped across the Ohio Valley for most of the period before moving east on Sunday, as stronger a system pushes in from the west. This will lead to several periods of significant precipitation falling in the upper Ohio River Valley through the weekend. After a brief respite Friday night, the next series of waves will traverse the front Saturday, then another one on Saturday evening, and then again early Sunday morning. For the wave tracking across late Saturday night, Sunday morning, there will be strong mid and low level jet support, and dynamics combined with copious amount of moisture available in the atmospheric column, should lead one last round of rain falling across southern and eastern Ohio as well as northern West Virginia. This last round will feature the heaviest rainfall Saturday night and Sunday morning. Staying close to RFC and WPC guidance for overall forecast precipitation amounts.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 155 PM Thursday... 5h ridge with surface high pressure will lead to a drying trend. Next system works across the southern plains associated with the southern stream for Thursday. Followed model blends for temps and pops for long term.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Thursday... Most sites have gone VFR on visibility in the wake of a low pressure wave that was pushing a cold front through the central Appalachians today. However, IFR stratus was hanging on west of the front, which may lift to MVFR. MVFR in showers is possible in the central Appalachians this afternoon, as the front pushes through. The MVFR to IFR stratus to the west will then arrive in the mountain sites behind the front this afternoon. Light flow in a cool boundary layer beneath the frontal inversion is likely to result in IFR stratus and fog, along with some drizzle. The next wave will push the front back north of the area on Friday. MVFR in rain showers is possible early Friday morning for northern sites, as that warm front pushes north. Conditions will improve to VFR behind the warm front later Friday morning, except for MVFR hanging on along and west of the Ohio River, and in at least the northern WV mountains, into Friday afternoon. Strong gusty surface winds at BKW will shift with the front, and then diminish this afternoon. Light north surface flow will veer to east tonight, and then southeast overnight and early Friday morning, and then south to southwest later Friday morning, and may start becoming gusty toward Friday afternoon. Flow aloft will be light to moderate west to southwest, becoming moderate to strong southwest on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary through the TAF period, especially with the low cloud / fog / drizzle forecast overnight tonight into Friday morning.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible at times in showers into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...TRM

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