Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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524 FXUS61 KRLX 242019 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 319 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front crosses pre- and post- dawn Saturday morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple systems next week with precipitation chances.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Friday... After a record breaking warm afternoon and a dry, mild evening, a strong cold front still appears on track to bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through the area just ahead of it overnight into Saturday morning. The main convective threat is wind damage as super cells that form upstream evolve into a fast moving squall line, but the hail and even tornado threat could not be entirely ruled out if the low level shear can give rise to sufficient mesoscale organization. Dry slot behind the cold front will bring a quick end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east on Saturday, but wrap around precipitation will then spread into northern portions of the area later Saturday afternoon. These rain showers will start turning over to snow showers late, as much colder air advects in. Used a blend of primarily near term sources for hourly temperatures in the warm air ahead of the front tonight, and in the cold advection behind the front on Saturday. Lows tonight will be close to or equal to highs Saturday. Record highs today were already breaking... Location.......Old Record/Year....As of 3 PM.....Forecast High Charleston 76 / 1925 79R 81 Huntington 73 / 1930 79R 80 Parkersburg 70 / 1961 78R 79 Elkins 72 / 1985 76R 76 Beckley 71 / 1981 73R 73
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday... Good model agreement on strong north to south cold front vicinity central WV at 12Z Saturday, and quickly on the move eastward. It should clear the mountains by early afternoon. Good dynamics with the cold front and upper level support continue with the front, so that cannot rule out thunder chance with the rain showers ahead of the front mainly over eastern sections. However, severe thunderstorm chances look to be gone at the beginning of this period. There also will be a sharp tapering off of the showers behind the front associated with a dry slot. Precip chances will pick up again later in the day into Saturday night, with mainly snow showers in the northern mountains where good cold advection will combine with modest upslope flow and marginally deep moisture. Precip will end before Sunday morning as high pressure builds in. Thus, only minor snow accumulations of an inch or less is expected in the higher elevations by Sunday morning. Temperatures will be much cooler saturday, with temperatures falling behind the cold front, and cold enough to change rain showers to snow showers by evening over the higher northern mountain elevations. After a cold night Saturday night with decreasing clouds from west to east, Sunday will be only in the 40s under abundant sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 AM Friday... Changeable weather this period. High pressure will shift east of the area Sunday night, but not quite as cold with clouds increasing ahead of the next system. The next system will be the first in a series of low pressure systems moving across the area next week, under mainly zonal flow aloft. So, we expect modifying temperatures to above normal by mid week. Models are less bullish on precip with this lead system for Monday, as this upper system flattens out somewhat. Still, it pulls a good warm front northward so that will keep lower chance pops for rain showers. Thereafter, the next stronger system comes in mid week, though there are some timing differences. Will have the best chance for rain showers Wednesday. Another system affects us toward the end of the work week with more rain showers. Temperatures will be above normal mid to late week with these systems. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Friday... After a VFR afternoon, a strong cold front will impact the area overnight tonight into Saturday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front is timed to reach HTS near 08Z, PKB 09Z, CRW and CKB 10Z, and EKN and BKW around 11Z. Probably MVFR conditions for, with brief IFR possible within, about a 4 to 5 hour period late overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR across the lowlands Saturday, as dry air and a rising frontal inversion increases mixing heights to about 5-6 kft. South to southwest surface flow will be gusty at times ahead of the cold front, shifting to west and remaining gusty behind the cold front early Saturday morning. Moderate south to southwest flow aloft ahead of the cold front into tonight will become moderate west behind the cold front on Saturday. Strong wind gusts are possible with the convection overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add TSRA to prevailing. Gusty winds will tend to vary, especially with the convection and the passage of the cold front overnight tonight into Saturday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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