Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230216 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1016 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front crosses tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend.
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As of 1015 PM Tuesday... The cold front continues to slowly move our way. As of 02Z the front was approaching a line from SDF-CMH-CLE. The line of thunderstorms has really weakened, with mainly scattered showers along and south/east of the Ohio River now. Did not make any huge changes to POPs as many are still getting in on one of these showers -- thus likely POPs still warrantied across WV...and eventually into SWVA. As of 3 PM Tuesday... A rather classic set up for severe weather presents itself this afternoon and evening. A strong cold front extended from southeast MI to southern IL early this afternoon. In an axis ahead of it, surface dew points into the lower 70s, CAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and 45 to 50 kts of deep layer bulk shear provide ample potential for severe weather for late August, especially given prime heating time. Already approaching the Ohio River as of early afternoon, the severe threat continues through the evening hours, well out ahead of the advancing cold front. The severe threat will end prior to the frontal passage on loss of heating and of some dynamics. The front itself reaches the Ohio River around midnight, and then crosses the remainder of the forecast area by dawn Wednesday. After low clouds and some fog to start, drier northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid weather Wednesday. Temperatures looked to be on track given the latest guidance and weather pattern, notwithstanding wet bulb cooling, which led to a somewhat lower than guidance forecast for early tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night for drier weather. Looking to overall be a dry period, with warm sunny days, and foggy mornings under high pressure. A shortwave trough will affect the area on Thursday, which could create a few light showers or sprinkles, but overall, main threat for this appears to be low, and to our north. It will however, bring in an additional shot of cooler air. Overall, will be nice weather, with the much cooler and less humid conditions, and sunny weather. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Most of the extended period will remain dry, although there will be a slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain, possibly drifting westward into the lowlands. Expecting a slight increase in temperatures from the short term. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM Tuesday... Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front moving through late this evening, with IFR possible in the stronger storms. Tried to time the IFR into CKB, HTS and CRW. Will likely need to amend at EKN and BKW as timing becomes more certain. As a cold front moves through, expected ceilings to drop into MVFR to IFR. Models indicating potential for dense fog, but think with overcast skies and some flow that dense fog is not likely. Ceilings will gradually scatter out and lift to VFR through the morning on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of storms and IFR may vary. Low chance that some dense fog could develop with very humid low levels ahead of the front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H M H H M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M L H H M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L H M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... River valley fog possible each morning through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.