Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 291908 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MID/ UPPER WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. WEAK STEERING FLOW/NO FRONTS AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR AS OF 17Z. HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SE OHIO AND IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD ON LIGHT SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND...AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DRIFT TOWARD FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH...DID UP POPS TO MID-CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MID LEVEL 500 MB VORT MAX THAT MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...GETS SHEERED OUT TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. HOW FAR NORTH ITS INFLUENCE GETS...IS IN QUESTION. LEFT SOME 40 POPS EARLY IN OUR SE... WITH 30 POPS ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAVING 30 POPS THRU THE NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY JUST 20/30 POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE SENSITIVE NAM DO SHOW SOME SKINKY CAPE TO 30 TO 35 THSD TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIRUNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH 20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHRE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOME DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OHIO...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A BIT BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY AS CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.