Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 061718 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 115 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB/RPY AVIATION...MZ

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