Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 070604 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 104 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
After system departs overnight, high pressure will build for Wednesday. A cold front crosses early Thursday. Much colder into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 100 AM Wednesday... Forecast on track with stratus hanging on in the wake of the rain. As of 1030 PM Tuesday... Cold front passing through the area. A chilly wind gust will accompany the front. Temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. Moisture on the roads/sidewalks should dry before temperatures get close to freezing, but something to keep in mind. There may be some slick areas out there. Drastic improvement in conditions Wednesday with the sun making a return though temps will struggle to get to the mid 40s as cold air advection continues.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Main feature in the short term will the arrival of modified arctic air. The models continue to waffle on the extent of development of a mid level wave Thursday, with all showing little to no development such that low pops currently may be able to be lowered even more. Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there in the lowlands. Elected to beef up the sky grid from what the Blender provided as well as lowering highs from the Blender. Think most if not all places will stay below freezing for highs. A gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but clouds should linger. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday... Increasingly milder air will filter into the area this weekend, but still will be rather chilly on Saturday with sunshine finally returning to the area. Milder air will work into the area in earnest Sunday and Monday ahead of the next system with showers and perhaps a mix at onset working in Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 100 AM Wednesday... Stratus in the wake of the rain Tuesday will go IFR in the mountains at times overnight into Wednesday morning, but should lift out of IFR at CKB before dawn, with otherwise MVFR ceilings throughout the lowlands through Tuesday morning. The stratus will evolve into stratocu / morning cu that then lifts above 3 kft and breaks up Wednesday afternoon. As the next cold front approaches from the west Wednesday night, mid level clouds from the associated upper level short wave trough will overspread the area. This should be enough to keep fog from forming. West to northwest surface flow will be a bit gusty in the mountains overnight, and generally be enough, together with the stratus deck, be enough to keep fog from forming overnight. Surface flow will diminish on Wednesday, and be calm to light and variable Wednesday night. Moderate northwest flow aloft overnight will become light northwest on Wednesday, and then light west Wednesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium into Wednesday morning, then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR ceilings may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/07/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H L M L L M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in the mountains,
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/JW SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.