Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261907 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 307 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE VARIETY. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. .AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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