Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231439 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 939 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system passes overhead and to the east tonight. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM Monday... Updated QPF and PoP timing to better reflect latest model run and radar assimilation. This resulted in relatively minor changes in overall forecast. Will continue to watch southern areas of WV as 3 to 6 hour QPE amounts are broaching the one inch mark. Another round of precip is upstream which may cause local flooding issues. As of 555 AM Monday... No changes to the forecast. Current rainfall amounts generally less than a quarter inch, although McDowell is pushing one half inch in some spots. Rain coverage has increased over the last couple hours, so the evolution of the POPs grids are in good shape. As of 235 AM Monday... No major changes to the evolution and track of the stacked upper level and surface low, but challenges remain with the QPF. The RAP and especially the HRRR are still on the aggressive side, giving more than an inch and a half in places, but will keep it on the lower end of the models with about an inch to an inch and a quarter through today. Rain shadow in place west of the mountains currently due to the easterly component to the low level flow, but eventual saturation will occur. As the lows pass to the east, low level flow will back to the northwest, transitioning the event to more of a northwest flow scenario complete with a low level thermal trough. Cold air advection is not much of a driver here, but dynamic cooling from the proximity of the upper low brings highest ridge temperatures below freezing, and subject to a change over to snow later this evening and tonight. Accumulations will be 1 to 3 inches, but look like they will be primarily above 3500ft. Greenbrier and Tygart River valleys will likely remain as rain, or a rain snow mix. Still no headlines for water issues, but isolated pockets of minor problems may occur due to persistence of rain and multi basin coverage. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Tuesday will see the shower activity wind down fairly quickly from west to east as the strong low pressure system moves away. Dynamic cooling will also wane as the system moves away, so that lingering high elevation snow showers in the northern mountains will change to rain showers before ending. Little additional snow accumulation expected there. High pressure will return Tuesday night with dry weather and near seasonable low temperatures. The pattern will change beginning Wednesday as northwesterly flow aloft drives a cold front southeastward into our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A good warmup again into the 60s Wednesday ahead of this cold front. Scattered rain showers will spread southeast across most of the area Wednesday night behind the cold front, with rain showers changing to snow showers in the northern mountains, but with little accumulation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 AM Monday... For this period, established northwest flow aloft will bring a series of upper disturbances and cold fronts, with progressively colder air invading the area. These will bring scattered showers for the later half of the week and into the weekend, but with no storm systems expected, precip amounts will generally be on the light side. Temperatures will cool to at or slightly below normal by Friday. The scattered low elevation rain showers, and high elevation snow showers, on Thursday will change to mostly all snow showers Thursday night and continue into the weekend. In general, little snow accumulation is expected in the low lands, while some snow accumulations in the mountains are likely. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 555 AM Monday... Models still continue to trend the TAFs in the IFR direction through te day, but the forecast is subject to many variables. First is the wind direction, which may make the lowland terminals drier in the lower levels, and may take longer to saturate, even in rain. Wind speeds should increase as well, which helps keep the air below 1000ft mixed better, even in rain. But, in the end, expect observations my bounce between MVFR and IFR through 00Z Tuesday, especially in different intensity rain. Flow turns to the northwest after 03Z Tuesday, and low ceilings become a good bet once again, with IFR back in the fold. Highest elevations will see snow, and perhaps RASN at BKW and EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations likely to fluctuate in rain and low ceilings. Amendments may be needed. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY L M L M M L L L L M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M L L M L EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M L M L L H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY M L M M H H M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L M L L AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR weather is expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/26 NEAR TERM...JW/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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