Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171113 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 613 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system brings spotty light precipitation today and tonight. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 610 AM Sunday... Forecast on track. As of 315 AM Sunday... Dampening wave coming out of the central plains this morning flattens almost completely, as it scoots quickly across the area today. The system was drawing low level moisture northward through the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning, and will then draw it eastward across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys today, and into the forecast area tonight. Very dry low and mid level air initially, and then upper level warming and drying reducing crystal growth later, spell very light precipitation that has difficulty reaching the ground initially, and then tends toward drizzle later on. Model soundings and guidance grids show surface temperatures near freezing in the northern mountains tonight, with an isothermal layer near freezing all the way through h7, as the cloud top lowers to h85 overnight. Freezing drizzle, very light freezing rain and / or sleet will be spotty, and barely if at all measure, even with upslope effects applied to a NAM and WRF QPF blend. A blend of MAV, MET, NAM and short term consensus was employed for temperatures, which flat line overnight after a modest evening drop, and then rise a bit in the mountains toward dawn Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Sunday... Weak disturbance crossing to the north on Monday, along with saturated low levels, will result in areas of drizzle, or perhaps very light rain, along with plenty of cloud cover on Monday into Monday night. Went ahead and put a mention of this in weather grids everywhere for Monday, as felt it cannot be completely ruled out even in southern zones. Otherwise, mainly dry for Tuesday, as high pressure takes hold, however, may still have some areas of light showers or even drizzle Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a weak cold front moves through the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday... Extended period starts out mainly quiet. There will still be a slight chance for showers across the far south on Wednesday as a system skirts by to our south. Otherwise, Thursday and most of Friday look to be dry, however, another system will approach the area by the weekend. The models are coming into better agreement with the timing and path of the system, although lots of uncertainty still exists. But at this point, have coded generally rain to start, with snow developing for Saturday afternoon as the cold front pushes east through the area. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 610 AM Sunday... A weakening upper level wave will streak quickly across the area today, bringing some light rain. However, the low levels are so dry, and the system will be moving so fast, that much of the rain will not reach the ground at first, and the rain does does is not likely to cause aviation restrictions. The system pulls east of the area tonight, diminishing the chance for rain, except in and near the mountains, where there may be MVFR stratocu. Overnight tonight, low level moisture arriving from the west and southwest, in the wake of the wave, is likely to bring on more widespread MVFR ceilings, with drizzle becoming a possibility. Surface flow will be light south to southwest, beneath light to moderate west to southwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of MVFR stratocu tonight may vary, and may even lower to IFR by dawn Monday. Fog may form late tonight, especially if it rains more than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times Monday through Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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