Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270553 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1253 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT. A LOT OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS... WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY. IN THE WEAK WIND FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM THE COASTAL STORM. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS. WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z THURSDAY. WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES. COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON TURKEY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN. MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT. SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE MAV FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN. CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z. CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 11/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M L M M H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WV MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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