Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161347 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 947 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 945 AM Wednesday...Forecast remains on-track and no changes needed at this time. As of 630 AM Wednesday... Despite some clouds drifting through, still getting river vally fog across the forecast area. Expect this to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Can pick out a weak MCV moving through central TN/KY on radar and satellite. Models show this brushing by to the south this morning, so have isolated to scattered showers and storms -- mainly in SW VA. Models also show a weak vort lobe moving by just to the north...so added some isolated showers and storms across extreme NW forecast area this afternoon as well. A warm front lifts through tonight, with POPs on the increase through the night. With a lot of clouds tonight, generally raised low temperatures a degree or two across the board. Only minimal change made to highs for this afternoon -- tweaked up a bit across central forecast area, and down a bit north and south were clouds/showers are will be more prevalent.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... A front will drive a juicy air mass through the region Thursday evening with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Latest model trends keep most upper level energy to be north of the area which lends a little more uncertainty to the potential for severe weather and/or flash flooding due to lack of forcing in our CWA. Will maintain extra awareness for this period to see if anything changes. Showers linger Friday. By Saturday morning, weak high pressure rebuilds for a drier day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... High pressure remains over the region through Monday. Zonal flow in a weakly forced environment makes this period a low confidence forecast for timing/precip intensity. A front is supposed to cross Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Wednesday... Fog will dissipate 13Z- 15Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Could get isolated to scattered showers across the far south and far north today, but should not cause any restrictions at TAF sites. A warm front lifts through overnight with increasing clouds and showers. With clouds and showers around did not go with dense fog...but could still get some MVFR in fog and/or showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation may vary. May get more fog tonight than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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