Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250025 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 825 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... After another warm, muggy night, and another hot, humid day on Monday, a weak cold front drops through Monday night lingering into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 815 PM UPDATE... Heat advisory for today expired, but for Monday continued for all but the far northern tier lowland counties. The slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm is left in for the overnight, mainly across northern portions of the area. 515 PM UPDATE... In coordination with ILN, have issued heat advisory for Monday afternoon for a similar area as today, except with the northern tier trimmed on account of the approaching cold front. Previous discussion... High pressure bringing oppressive dew points to the area with temps in the 90s making for heat indices hovering around 100. Abundant moisture and instability may kick off an isolated shower this afternoon, but lack of forcing mechanisms and dynamics should quell anything significant relegating everything to garden variety modes. Radar indicates a few of these pinhole cells are already popping up here and there. A front to our north should slide close to our area by Monday morning increasing clouds and giving a slight chance for some PoPs and some relief from the heat and humidity. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The front and associated upper level wave will slowly sag into the area Monday night with a good chance for shra/tsra. High pwats and relatively weak flow spells torrential downpours as the main hazard. This system still looks to meander about southern sections on Tuesday and the overall flow becomes more zonal and remains weak. So have the best chances for shra/tsra across S zones Tuesday with drier air taking hold across SE OH/N WV. A slight nudge further S on Wednesday but still sct mainly diurnally driven shra/tsra generally S of I64 corridor. The heat wave will give way to temps more close to normal for this time of year...but still a bit toasty. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... After a VFR start, valley fog is again likely to form overnight, and may become dense. However, since none of the TAF sites received rain this past afternoon, did not take any all the way down to VLIFR. Once the fog burns off Monday morning, expect another VFR day with cu forming midday and afternoon. However, a front that has been to the north of the area this weekend will sink southward, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the across the middle Ohio Valley and northern WV. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast. VLIFR (1/4SM OVC001) is still possible toward dawn Monday. Fog may lift into MVFR stratocu or MVFR stratocu may form briefly mid or late Monday morning. A shower or thunderstorm may directly impact a TAF site Monday afternoon with brief IFR conditions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms early Monday night. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for WVZ005>009- 013>019-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ075-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/JW SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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