Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221925 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 225 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1240 PM UPDATE. WITH DOWNSLOPING OCCURRING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON FORECAST. WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. OTHERWISE...EXPANDED POPS TONIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS AREA. 1020 AM UPDATE. EXPANDED POPS WESTWARD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUM EAST FACING SLOPES OF POCAHONTAS AND FAR EASTERN RANDOLPH...ELSEWHERE IN MOUNTAINS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR POCAHONTAS...BUT NOT EXPANDING IT FOR RANDOLPH DUE TO VERY SMALL AREA AND LESS POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... PESKY MOISTURE FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST AS WELL AS WAA WILL COMBINE FOR LIGHT PRECIP MOVING UP THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT E WITH W EXTENT OF LIGHT PRECIP TO WHERE MOST FALLS OVER POCAHONTAS AND E RANDOLPH CO. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF ONSET OF FZRA WITH PSBL SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIQUID AND PULLING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLIGHT DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...THINK WINTRY PRECIP MAY WILL BE BRIEF. LOOKING AT ABOUT 3 HR PERIOD BEGINNING LATE MORNING FOR THOSE CO. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH AID OF DEVELOPING SE DOWN SLOPE FLOW. SOME PEAKS OF SUN IS PSBL S OF I64 LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE SE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND WAA ALOFT CONTINUES...THINK THE RIDGES WILL SEE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS SHOULD HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES WITH POCKETS OF DZ PSBL OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASING ALONG AND W OF THE OH RIVER LATE TONIGHT FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL REALIZED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWLANDS. HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE FOR POCAHONTAS CO...ALTHOUGH WINDOW FOR FZRA IS RATHER SHORT BUT A TRACE IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE HEADLINE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS QUITE SMALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WEDMESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE FASTEST MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST... FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM. END RESULT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY BY LATE CHRISTMAS. MODELS INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND ONLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SO ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE A WELCOME RETURN WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY 00Z...MODELS DIVERGE WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR POPS AS THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. SOME WAVINESS AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH WARMER TEMPERATRUES...THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW TWEAKS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AFFECTING BKW. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 4000-6000 CEILINGS WITH BREAKS ESPECIALLY WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VERY GENEROUS WITH RAIN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST LOW POPS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO HOLD EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND VFR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 06Z MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY. GENERALLY BECOMING VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY 15Z AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INCREASES BY AROUND 18Z. S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H L L M M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WED NT...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/LS NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JMV

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