Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230947 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 547 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM WAVE MOVES UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. CENTER OF HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL SEE ANOTHER GOOD DIURNAL SWING BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS CREEP IN OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THAT SYSTEM IN OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING GETS LEFT BEHIND BY NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT THROUGH ERN CANADA DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CLOSES OFF. THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TAKES AN INLAND TRACK...WANDERING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN DRY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT CIRRUS IS SHOWN WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THU SKIRTING EASTERN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY DAY WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG AT NT. TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN. DID BLEND IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR HIGHS WED AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR LOWS THU NT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DENSE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIFR FOG WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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