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980
FXUS61 KRLX 060654
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily
chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will
pose concern for localized flooding each day.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 255 AM Monday...

A disturbance encroaches the area starting this morning,
kicking off what looks to be an active weather week. A frontal
boundary will be draped along the northern extent of the
forecast area today amid shortwave energy gliding up from the
south. The stalled front, coupled with the approaching
shortwave trough, will help give rise to showers and isolated
thunderstorm development for the second half of the period.

Radar trends at the time of writing depicted storms pressing
into Kentucky, which will then be progged to lift north into
the forecast area through the day. Early morning CAM guidance
suggests precipitation moving into our southwestern zones some
time between 9-11 AM, then engulfing the forecast area under
POPs on the order of 50-80% for the afternoon and evening
timeframe.

PWATs will be on the rise amid the strong southerly pull of
moisture, leaping back up to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by this
afternoon. Localized flooding concerns grow by the day as flash
flood guidance is chipped away by daily showers and storms. This
will especially be the case in the event of heavy downpours
and/or repetitive showers/storms not only today, but stretching
into the extended forecast period as well.

With excess cloud cover expected over the area today, afternoon
highs will fall a few degrees shy of readings that were
observed over the weekend. Instability will also be kept at bay
as a result, with severe weather being limited for today.
Precipitation diminishes to slight chances (20-30%) late tonight
as the shortwave trough departs off the Delmarva coast, but
looks to return in earnest heading into Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1217 PM Sunday...

Severe weather will be possible across parts of the area Tuesday.
SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and
western West Virginia outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather.
Models suggest that all severe hazards will be possible, but the
greatest threat may be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values may exceed
1,000 J/kg, MUCAPE values look to exceed 2,000 J/kg, 0-6 km mean
wind looks to be around 25 kts, and the effective bulk wind
difference should be 25-30 kts. All of these parameters point toward
a possible damaging wind threat with thunderstorms on Tuesday. PWATs
are expected to be from 1.50-1.75", so flooding downpours will also
be possible in thunderstorms.

Another severe weather threat will exist Wednesday. The main severe
risks on Wednesday appear to be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Forecast soundings show a large layer of mid-level dry air Wednesday
afternoon, which would be conducive to hail development and damaging
wind potential. SPC currently has portions of northeast Kentucky,
southeast Ohio and extreme western West Virginia outlooked in a 15%
risk for severe weather Wednesday (day 4).

The intensity of any thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
will depend on how well the atmosphere destabilizes after prior
morning convection. In addition, the ground is becoming more
saturated due to recent convective activity over the past couple of
days. Any thunderstorms that move over saturated ground may lead to
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1218 PM Sunday...

A cold front will pass through the region Friday morning, and the
severe weather threat should diminish heading into next weekend as
cooler, more stable air funnels in behind the front. However,
showers will remain possible through the weekend with lingering
energy aloft. With the ground becoming increasingly saturated due to
recent convective activity, we may still have to keep an eye on the
threat of flooding heading into the end of the week. Confidence is
low at this time, so stay tuned for more details over the coming
days as the picture becomes clearer. Temperatures will be much
cooler Friday through next weekend, with highs only expected to be
in the 50s (mountains) and 60s to lower 70s (lowlands).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Monday...

An assortment of patchy fog, low stratus, and a passing mid-
level cloud deck will impose a challenging aviation forecast
this morning. Some clearing is taking shape down in the southern
coalfields, where vsbys have tumbled down to IFR thresholds,
while northern half of the territory still resides under anvil
blow off from convection upstream that has prevented
development of fog. However, further clearing is in the realm of
possibility over the next few hours, that could give way to fog
before sunrise. Tempo groups were included to attempt bouncing
flight rules during the overnight period.

After daybreak, a warm front lifts up into the Tennessee
Valley, with showers attached to the boundary. This will drape
itself through our forecast area for the majority of the day,
allowing for showers and afternoon thunderstorms to sprout. The
front may also promote MVFR ceilings during its northern
progression through the Central Appalachians. Activity gradually
wanes this evening, however low ceilings will prevail overnight
tonight as the front remains parked nearby.

Light and variable winds overnight will aid in fog production
amid peaks of clear skies. Low level flow will shift out of the
southwest through the day as the warm front migrates over the
area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog tonight will
likely vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/06/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday
night.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK