Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211933 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 333 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WARM FRONT OSCILLATES SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AT H5 PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EVIDENT IN DEWPOINT READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASS BY. CODED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY MIDNIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA PER CONSENSUS ON QPF FIELDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...AND SFC CAPE ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR OF ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS NOT IMPRESSIVE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT PER HIGH DEWPOINTS. PERHAPS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING..WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. USED AN ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DRIER REGIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AREA. STILL HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS BLENDED IN FROM CONSENSUS AND INHERITED NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL STAY MOSTLY AROUND 2200 FEET...BUT LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF CRW. ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WV WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF STORMS COULD AFFECT BKW BY 19-20Z. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN ACTIVITY TODAY. THE SECOND ROUND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AFTER RAIN SHOWERS PASS BY. BELIEVE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY. CODED STORMS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO HEALTHY SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN H5 MODEL CHARTS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW...WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUD MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN CODED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H M M H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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