Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281310 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 910 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KANAWHA COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG I64 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 10 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND. HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS ON. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATUS DECK COVERS CENTRAL WV AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR RETURNS FROM KBKW-KCRW-KEKN LINE WITH NW GUSTY WINDS AND CAA. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING SOME CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KMC

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