Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261957 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 357 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong cold front brings thunderstorms Thursday. Heavy rain possible especially Thursday night into Friday. High pressure for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... Flat cu field mainly from I-77 to the east. Otherwise noted some CI working in from the northwest. An upper level wave sweeps south across the Great Lakes with mid level clouds expected to spread across the forecast area across the forecast area Thursday. Moisture in atmospheric column increases significantly by Thursday afternoon as forecast area comes under the influence of high PW plume. Think severe threat will be somewhat diminished due to high precipitable water values. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be threat increasing from west to east in the afternoon hours. Latest model information has dipped most max temp values down a degree or two across the board for Thursday. The solution generally accepted since there will be more clouds than sun that could offset any warm air advection. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... General forecast pattern remains the same this period, although there are still timing and tracking differences in the axis of heaviest QPF with these features. Lead short wave out ahead of a strong upper low dropping southeastward thru the Great Lakes will drag a cold front eastward into the Ohio Valley Thursday. A low pressure center will then form and ride up the front to our west as the strong upper low drops southeastward thru the Great Lakes later Thursday and Friday. With anonymously high PW`s AOA 2 inches feeding northeastward ahead of the front and good dynamics, the result will be a large swath of heavy showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the low and slow moving cold front. While it appears the severe thunderstorm threat has been reduced with all the expected clouds and less sheared environment, the heavy rain potential continues to be a real threat. Again, the axis of heaviest rains remain in question, as the the models target different parts of the area. With this uncertainty, will continue to highlight heavy rain potential in the Hazardous Weather product Thursday and Friday. Newer model runs show the upper low to be progressive enough for things to clear out Saturday morning. A cool season like Canadian high pressure system will build in behind the front later Friday and gain real control Saturday. Look for an abnormally cool and rainy Friday, and a cool but drier Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... A tranquil period under a dry northwest flow aloft with Canadian high pressure hanging around. There will be a slow increase in high temperatures each day with abundant sunshine, but it will be dry with still at or below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... Mostly VFR this afternoon into the late morning hours. Have river and elevated valley fog setting in once again after 09z. Fog and low stratus will lift and dissipate after sunrise. Offsetting amount of fog will be mid level clouds working in from the west in association with a front, so do not expect as widespread fog conditions Thursday morning. Chances of precipitation increase from west to east late in the TAF period. Also bring mentions of TS late in period over western sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of morning fog could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions with thunderstorms likely Thursday night into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KMC

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