Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250639 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues its dominance through mid week. Cold front Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 AM Monday... As has been the case over the past several days, not much change in the sensible conditions to the forecast. Upper level ridge oriented northeast to southwest prevails, and with the higher heights, temperatures remain well above normal. Getting high level moisture slung into the CWA from Hurricane Maria, but otherwise, not expecting any effects from the tropical system in the near term. No precipitation expected. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM Monday... Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and warm conditions through mid week. Temperatures will continue well above normal with no rain.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Monday... Finally a change in the pattern from a stagnant to a quite progressive one. A northern stream upper trough will push a cold front through the region from the northwest to start the period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area, it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front. Thus, all models have a significant but dry cold front coming across Thursday, with the main change being much cooler but still dry air for the end of the work week. Temperatures will go from well above normal to near normal. There will be a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend under a cold upper trough. So while a light shower with this feature cannot be ruled out for the weekend, chances are not high enough to include at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM Monday... VFR expected with the exception late night/early morning river valley fog. Winds less than 8kts through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Late night valley fog through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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