Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232303 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 703 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather returns as southerly winds pump air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will climb well above normal this weekend. the next shot at showers arrives Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 705 PM Thursday... Only minor changes this evening. Expecting cloud cover to increase tonight, with overnight low temperatures much milder than last night. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM Thursday... A deepening mid level cyclone in the midwest will continue to churn and move slowly north northeast through the short term. This will keep the region in the warm sector and largely precip free. With southerly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere, H8 temps climb into the double digits. This will equate to the warmest weekend since the last week of Feb as the mercury makes a run near 80F in the coal fields, but mostly 70s outside the higher terrain. The occluded front is knocking on the door of the tri state region around Huntington by 12z Sunday. Continue to ramp up probability of precip chances by then, however given the strength of this system would expect a later onset as we get closer due to operational model bias. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... Highlights: - Above normal temperatures and precipitation - Dry spells won`t be that long - No big storms Active southern stream will yield a parade of weather systems moving across the region. With all of the low pressures passing well to our northwest and the Gulf wide open, no signs of winter weather on the horizon. Monday and Tuesday yield the warmest weather of the week as temperatures climb 15 to 20 degrees above normal. I would not be surprised to see a few places in the southern coal fields get to 80F. Nonetheless, most of the tri state will be basking well into the 70s. The higher elevations will be in the 60s, still above normal for late March. The weather gets iffy mid week with the placement of a baroclinic zone somewhere in central WV / I-64 corridor. This will bring temps back to reality due to clouds and scattered showers. A transitory mid level anticyclone crosses Thursday and Friday which will a return of dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 705 PM Thursday... VFR through the period with mid level moisture from a warm front passing through tonight, lowering to low end MVFR between 3-4kft. Surface flow less than 10kts out of the south/southeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Restrictions and low level wind shear are likely with the advance of late Monday cold front. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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