Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231400 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weekend. Weak disturbance dropping through today. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10 am update...No changes necessary. Weak ripple aloft may kick off an isolated thundershower this afternoon, but expect this to me more miss than hit. These should come to an end late evening, with just some clouds lingering overnight. Afternoon temperatures expected to top 90 degrees across much of the lowlands today. Combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, heat indices will climb above 100 degrees. No changes planned to ongoing heat advisory. CKB area is not included...and by blending in ECMWF MOS to previous forecast, still coming up just short of advisory criteria there. Regardless, a good day to take water/shade breaks if spending time outside.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Guidance suggest that a cold front will stall north of the area on Sunday before lifting north as a warm front later Sunday night. Then, the area will remain under a warm sector of a disturbance crossing east across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. An approaching cold front will reach OH valley and WV. Kept likely PoPs with this second cold front passing Monday through Monday night. Humidity will stay high with dewpoints around 70 degrees. High temperatures on Sunday should range the mid 90s lowlands to the mid 70s higher elevations. This conditions could bring heat index numbers into the triple digits once again Sunday afternoon. Went closer to the super blend numbers fog temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Early morning fog will clear by 15z. Cannot rule out an isolated thundershower this afternoon, but not enough coverage to include in TAFs at this point. Have some dense river valley fog reforming tonight. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could need an amendment for shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JW/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.