Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301929 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 330 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PASSES NORTH WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. WARMER THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN TODAY ON GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A SCATTERED CU DECK OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HAVE A PSEUDO WARM FRONT DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF CWA TONIGHT...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO THE DELMARVA AREA...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR CWA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS SOME WITH THIS...AND HAVE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS WITH 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY. STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...EXCEPT MAYBE ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD POSE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS. ENDED UP MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...BUT A TOUCH COOLER AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT TRICKY...WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW BY LATE TONIGHT. LIKE WITH HIGHS...ENDED UP A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT A TOUCH COOLER EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 00Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL AREAS OF LKLY POPS IN OUR CNTRL WV MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. 850 MB THERMAL TROF HOLD OVER US THROUGH 06Z-09Z...WITH SOME WARMING BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY. MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE MAKES CLOUD FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. STILL COUNTING ON NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RAISE OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO 12Z GFS MOS LEVELS. STILL PLEASANT DAY FIGURED FOR WEDNESDAY...HOPEFULLY IT IS NOT AN APRIL FOOLS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOW TO WARM AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL REMAIN UNDER 12Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. PSEUDO WARM FRONT THURSDAY...INSTABILITY LIMITED. INCREASED SURFACE WINDS WITH 925 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 15Z. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN OUR WESTERN LOWLANDS. POPS RAMP UP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY...BUT MAIN COLD FRONTAL ZONE STILL REMAINING TO OUR WEST. STILL HAVING LOWLANDS REACHING MID/UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RATHER UNSETTLED END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWED BY A SURFACE WAVE. WILL BE WATCHING THE TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY WATER ISSUES ARISE. THE EASTER WEEKEND...THOUGH...IS SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONALE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CU DECK IN PLACE. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT TAF SITES...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO TURN MORE SW AND DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...MAY HAVE SOME 30-35KT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY 10-15MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH. THIS WILL HELP DRY FUELS OUT FOLLOWING WEEKEND RAIN OR SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SW WINDS 15-20MPH...GUSTING 30-40MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY BUT STILL HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN IS RELATIVELY LOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ FIRE WEATHER...MZ

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