Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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738 FXUS61 KRLX 221055 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 555 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm today, cold front later this evening/tonight. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 550 AM Monday... Added some timing changes for the POPs, largely slowing the likelies at the onset of shower activity by a couple of hours. Sky grids were also given some TLC this morning. As of 155 AM Monday... Few showers across the northern tier will lift north over the next few hours, providing a dry day in the warm sector. Holding the CRW temperature of 70F this afternoon in southerly flow. Timing of the front still brings the bulk of the activity after 21Z today, and do not deviate much from the previous forecasts. Very dynamic environment with strong speed and directional shear in place, but very limited instability. SPC continues general thunder for a large portion of the CWA, but will continue without thunder in the grids. Will probably see a few stray lightning strikes, but not justified to put thunder in the grids still at this point. The POP gradient will likely be able to be tightened up a bit as the timing settles in upcoming RAP and HRRR runs Expecting strong increases in the winds heading into tonight, especially behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Cold front will be east of the forecast area to start the period, with cold air surging in behind the front. Have a non- diurnal temperature trend in at higher elevations Tuesday, with a transition to from rain to snow as an upper level low crosses the Great Lakes. Across the lowlands, we should see mostly rain showers Tuesday before changing over to snow through the late afternoon and evening. Bumped up winds and gusts above the consensus blend with 40-60kt 850mb flow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Expect continuing snow showers Wednesday as a 500mb shortwave trough slides through, with northwest flow snow showers Wednesday night. Ended up with a couple inches of snow across the mountainous counties of WV, with up to 4 on the highest ridges. This is a decent increase over the previous forecast. Across the lowlands, expect a dusting west to a half inch east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Dry weather with a warming trend is expected Thursday and Friday as a broad surface high passes. A cold front approaches from the west Friday night. Some timing difference between GFS and ECMWF, but front looks to cross Saturday night. Depending on the timing, could see precipitation start transitioning to snow Sunday as cold air arrives. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 550 AM Monday... VFR ceilings dominate on the front end of the forecast, with ceilings set to rise in the warm sector of the frontal system slated to pass through the region after 21Z today. Expect increasing flows at the surface through the period, and visibility restrictions, primarily MVFR, in showers associated with the frontal passage. Ceilings will lower behind the front with MVFR expected in cold air advection, with some prevailing IFR possible in the mountains. Ahead of the front, gusts 15-25kts are likely, but stronger winds behind the front with gusts 20-30kts are possible, with the highest at the BKW terminal. Have also put low level wind shear in the forecast for BKW in the southerly flow prior to frontal passage. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Frontal timing/showers could vary from forecast. May need brief IFR visibilities in TEMPOs for the onset of showers. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 01/22/18 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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