Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230711 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM Wednesday... SW to NE oriented cold front currently stretching from SW PA to near the OH River and southwest into KY. Ahead of this boundary, lingering low-level moisture and weak upslope forcing keeping spotty showers in the mountains, along with low stratus. Front will continue progressing south and east across the area through the night and into morning with drier air filtering in from the north as the front crosses. Tweaked PoPs based on radar trends with little precip expected outside the mountains as frontal forcing remains weak. Temperatures following guidance fairly well so no major changes for this issuance. Front clears the mountains by this afternoon with cloud cover clearing into the evening and northwesterly winds in its wake.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Wednesday... Upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will bring much cooler and drier air southward from a large high pressure system centered over central Canada. There will be one note worthy but moisture starved short wave rotating southeast across the Great Lakes into the northern mid Atlantic states Thursday, but any light shower activity from this features is expected to be minimal and remain northeast of our CWA. Overall, it will be nice weather, with the much cooler and less humid conditions.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 250 AM Wednesday... Most of the extended period will remain dry with a slow warming trend, although there will be a slight chance for showers Saturday across the higher mountain terrain. This will be due mainly to a temporary moist influx of low level moisture on easterly flow off the Atlantic as the aforementioned high pressure system shifts into eastern Canada. By Sunday this moist flow is cut off as a low rides up off the southeast coast. A pattern change is expected for early next week, as the eastern U.S. upper trough lifts out and another upper trough develops over the center of the nation. This will bring an increase in temperatures, moisture and dynamics for scattered showers and storms Tuesday, as the aforementioned surface high pressure system finally shifts off the east coast and winds turn southerly.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Wednesday... Cold front currently stretching SW to NE near the OH River with continued movement to the SE. Ahead of this boundary, lingering low-level moisture and weak upslope forcing in the mountains keeping some spotty SHRA hanging around. No significant changes to the aviation forecast for this issuance with low stratus holding on for all terminals. Expecting cigs to drop a bit more before the front clears with IFR cigs likely at KCRW, KCKB, KEKN, and KBKW through 23/13-14Z. Highest confidence in IFR or possibly LIFR cigs remain in the mountains with MVFR to occasional brief IFR cigs expected elsewhere. Given the abundance of cloud cover, not expecting dense fog overnight but some BR/HZ possible before a cleaner air mass entrenches behind the front. Once the front crosses through the morning, winds will shift to the northwest and clouds will lift/scatter to VFR at all terminals. Chances of fog increase by Thursday morning with good radiational cooling expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of IFR cigs may vary. Low chance that some dense fog could develop with very humid low levels ahead of the front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M L H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M H L L L L M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L M L M M M M M M M L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... River valley fog possible each morning through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...DTC

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