-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200211
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW. RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WAS A BIT FASTER FORMING THE FOG IN THE WET COUNTIES FROM
CKB DOWN THROUGH CRW INTO SW VA.  PATCHES OF CLOUDS ON WEAK E FLOW
MAY DELAY FOG A BIT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

THIS WEAK SUMMER WIND PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THERMALS TO BREAK
THROUGH THE MID LEVEL CAP LATE THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THEN DRIFT ABOUT IN THE EVENING.  WILL NOT ADJUST POP UP
A BIT YET...WILL HAVE GRAVEYARD SHIFT LOOK AT ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
BUT WAS THINKING IN THAT DIRECTION CURRENTLY.

NO MAJOR TEMP CHANGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AS WE REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VERY DRY AS WELL...AND ALL FACTORS LEAD TO A LOW POP
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THROW IN SOME AFTERNOON
POPS BASED ON ELEVATION PRIMARILY AND ALSO ABILITY TO REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT
700MB...AND THUS DRY AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL COLLAPSE
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT IN ALL ASPECTS.

IN THE END...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.  AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WAS A BIT FASTER INTRODUCING NOCTURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT...ALONG THE
KEKN TO KCRW CORRIDOR WHERE THE GROUND IS THE WETTEST.  KCRW VCNTY
ALSO HAD THE LEAST DRYING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRATUS LINGERING
THROUGH ABOUT 17Z WEDNESDAY.  BUT WITH THE 1 DAY OF DRYING...DO NOT
THINK THE STRATUS WILL LINGER MUCH PAST 13Z THURSDAY.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.  THINKING MAINLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCT
OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 17Z THURSDAY.
THE WEAK SE FLOW COULD FORM SOME SLOW MOVING AND MAINLY ISOLATED
CELLS 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY INCLUDING THE KBKW VCNTY.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY AND DURATION OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 06/20/13
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR/LIFR IN NOCTURNAL FOG LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT STILL POSSIBLE 06Z
TO 12Z FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB