Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300546 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Firmly in warm sector today. Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Sunday... Fairly quiet weather expected through most of the period. We will be in the warm sector throughout with summer-like temperatures. Expecting highs around 90 across most of the lowlands, with 70s and 80s at higher elevations. With the summer like airmass...cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm today into tonight, so maintained some low end POPs. Most of us should remain dry however. Cold front approaching from the west late in the period, with POPs beginning to ramp up across SE OH during the pre-dawn Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Cold front pushes through Monday with showers/storms. Front should be progressive as to not cause much water concerns despite wet grounds across southeast Ohio and northern WV. A Much fresher and cooler airmass arrives behind the front for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday... Uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the mid/late week omega block across the country. Models continue to waffle regarding whether a developing low pressure system across the MS Valley remains connected to the westerlies or if it cuts off across the southeast states. This will play a significant determining factor to the sensible weather across our area, with temps and amount of rainfall. As a result, did not stray much at all from Superblend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Some MVFR fog in place across SE OH into PKB area through sunrise. Warm southerly flow should persist through the TAF period with mainly just some mid to high clouds passing by. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but not enough coverage expected to include in TAFs at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/density of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/30/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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