Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251105 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 605 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses today with limited moisture. Period of NW flow and upslope rain and snow showers late today and tonight. Cooler Sunday. Milder through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 600 AM Saturday... Inversion mixing out quickly as surface winds kick in. Bumped up temps early this morning -- especially in the Ohio River Valley where temps are already climbing into the 50s. As of 1240 AM Saturday... Southerly flow beginning to pick up across the middle Ohio River Valley early this morning as a 30-40kt low level jet noses in. Temperatures have already bottomed out in this area, where HTS and PKB are in the mid 40s. Quite a bit cooler in valley locations farther east where the atmosphere decoupled this evening. Should get mixing going during the pre-dawn so have a general warming trend taking over prior to sunrise. A cold front will push through today. Low level moisture is limited, so kept POPs dry with the frontal passage. Will see stratus moving in however. Colder air filters in behind the front under NW flow. This, combined with an upper level shortwave trough should be enough to squeeze out what limited moisture there is -- yielding some upslope rain showers, changing over to snow showers as 850mb temps drop into the -4C to -6C range late this evening and tonight. Have a half inch or less snow accumulation along the higher ridges of the northern mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Upper trough exits towards Atlantic Canada, leaving the area under control of high pressure and dry conditions through mid week. Expect 500hPa heights to rebound, along with 850hPa temperatures, resulting an a warmer than normal period for the entire CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Digging 500hPa trough in the Great Lakes brings the next chances for rain Thursday night, but there will be a question of coverage and extent as the operational long term progs show the cold front possibly shearing as the central area of low pressure tracks from northern Minnesota into central Quebec, away from the area. Capping POPs at chance for this period for now, with temperatures modestly dropping back towards normal with a Pacific airmass in its wake. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Saturday... High clouds beginning to move into the forecast area ahead of a cold front. The front will push through today, with a period of MVFR stratus. Behind the cold front, NW flow will keep stratus going across the northern and eastern CWA, with some upslope rain showers across the northern mountainous counties. These will change over to mountain snow showers overnight. IFR expected in these at higher elevations, but not at EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May have too much MVFR stratus later today, especially across the south. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 11/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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