Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181932 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 232 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure pushes into the region tonight. However, active pattern continues, with a warm front crossing Friday, and then a stronger low pressure system early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Wednesday... High pressure currently centered over Kentucky will continue to the east-northeast. Low level clouds will start to erode across the south later this afternoon and continue northward tonight, but how far north the stratus clears is still uncertain. Will have to watch and see what areas clear out tonight, as the saturated soils with cool overnight temps could develop dense fog in some areas early Thursday morning. Still not enough confidence on if we will see enough clearing and if clearing will take place soon enough for dense fog to develop. Tomorrow will be drier with high pressure overhead and drifting northeast. Will likely see some sunshine across much of the forecast area and this combined with warm air advection will send temperatures soaring. Highs will be close to 60 across much of the south with mid 50s in the north. Mid and upper level clouds will be on the increase afternoon as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Any rainfall will likely hold off until later Thursday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... High pressure Thursday. A system lifts through the area Thursday night and Friday. Overall it seems to be modeled well, but there is also some indication that as it traverses our cwa that the precip shield splits due to downsloping. For now, just kept general high pops across the area mainly in the overnight hours. This one looks like about a 1/4 of an inch of rain for everyone. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Dry weather for Saturday then a large system approaches the area Sunday and arrives Sunday night into Monday before exiting early Tuesday. Still too warm for snow, so rainfall amounts and winds are the primary concerns with this system especially with our saturated soils. Models are in good agreement on details, so fairly confident in its occurrence thus have pops on the high side for that timeframe. Due to the systems approach trajectory, downsloping may break up precip shield again. The system will be occluding as it passes the area, so QPF amounts may be maximized in the vcnty. High pressure builds Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 PM Wednesday... High pressure is building into the region but still a abundant amount of low level moisture in place with widespread MVFR ceilings. Clouds should slowly break up from south to north this evening into tonight as the high continues to push northward into the region. If we are able to clear tonight at any location the antecedent conditions suggest that IFR fog will be possible with the saturated soils. Not enough confidence to go with IFR fog at this time to the 18Z forecast, but later shifts may need to add fog for early Thursday morning if clearing occurs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings may may start to lift sooner this afternoon and this evening earlier than expected. Fog may form overnight if clouds lift. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK

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