Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031859 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 259 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z TUESDAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND EAST OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE PROVIDED ENOUGH HEATING TO GET STORMS GOING. MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH. ALTHOUGH SFC CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM SEEMS TO BE EXAGGERATED BY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH BOUYANCY TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAVE THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHEAST OH AND THE WESTERN HALF OF WV THROUGH TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS...STARTING PCPN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 00Z...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS IT LOOSEN ITS GRIP BY LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE LOOKS DESCENT WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS...STORMS COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. BLENDED THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FEATURES AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WENDESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WENDESDAY TIMEFRAME...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF THE CWA...INITIALLY...AND THEN SPREAD THEM NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING...TRIED TO TIME POPS WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS SOLUTION. BY WENDESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CHC POPS EVERYWHERE. TEMPERATURES A CONCENUS BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS CENTER OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FEED IS GOOD WITH THIS STORM AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL WV BY 06Z...AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG STRONGER STORMS AS THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE. THEREFORE...CODED VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW...IMPENDING AMENDMENTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOW CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER 09Z...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINA...THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINA...AND SOUTHWEST VA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VARY. DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS/26 AVIATION...ARJ

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