Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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771 FXUS61 KRLX 111105 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 605 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek bringing another arctic blast and ushering in a more unsettled pattern through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Sunday... Never saw any obs in the CWA with snow, but any snow that has been falling across extreme north should taper off pretty quickly over the next couple hours. Temperatures continue to warm with ongoing WAA and expecting a decent warm up today for most. One exception will be the eastern slopes where southeast flow cold air damming will keep things on the cool side. As a low pressure system moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, a cold front will begin moving through from west to east. Have an area of 80+ POPs along and ahead of the front for tonight. Some concern that the eastern slopes could still be near freezing when the precip starts early Monday morning -- will need to monitor this for freezing rain potential. Have a few hundredths of ice accretion, mainly in Pocahontas County. Will add this to the HWO. For the rest of the forecast area, generally looking at around 0.4-0.5" of rain tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... The tail end of a weather system will impact the area on Monday evening. While cold air is filtering in believe most places will remain rain with the exception being the highest terrain. After the front moves off to the east, high pressure builds and then the big story will be a bitter cold air intrusion on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... -20C 850 mb blob arrives Thursday and will drop temps into the low teens in the lowlands and single digits in the high country. Wind chills will likely drop to advisory levels in the Pocahontas and Randolph county highlands. Confidence remains low concerning overall pattern evolution for the remainder of the long term. Multiple rounds of precipitation are possible through the period with any waves embedded in the larger scale flow. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 600 AM Sunday... VFR expected into tonight, with clouds on the increase. A surface low moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, bringing overnight rain. Expect IFR visibilities in the rain, with IFR ceilings behind it. Winds will gradually turn from southeast to southwest through the TAF period. VAD shows winds just above any lingering inversion are not as strong as they were overnight, so have removed LLWS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and category changes may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/11/16 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain and stratus late tonight into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...MZ

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