Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220217 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 917 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system crosses tonight. Cloudy and cooler in its wake Wednesday. Unseasonably warm again Thursday and Friday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 9 PM Tuesday... As current forecast indicates, precip initially having hard time overcoming dry air, but will gradually overspread mainly the southern half of the area tonight into Wednesday morning. As of 300 PM Tuesday... Heating in the afternoon sun combined with just enough mixing to lower RH values into the 20s across south central WV and southwest VA. Given only an occasional puff of wind, marginally low fuels, opted to hold off on SPS. Temperatures and dew points converge this evening, with not much deviation from guidance and previous forecast overnight tonight. Light rain to the north and spotty light rain showers to the south were marching up the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, in response to a flat upper level short wave trough that will cross the area tonight, likely bringing the showers along with it. Models continue to peg higher coverage south and less north. These showers wane Wednesday as the short wave trough exits early, and heights build. A moist southerly low level flow will struggle to take out a shallow inversion Wednesday, making for a cloudy day with temperatures at or below the latest guidance, which is lower than the previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... Strong warm air advection kicks in on Thursday as a warm front pushes northward across the region. There is some weak instability and although we will mostly see just a few showers with the passing of the front, it is possible that there could be an isolated thunderstorm. Friday should be mostly dry as we will be entrenched in the warm sector as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great Lakes. High temperatures will soar well into the mid to upper 70s. We should stay dry through 00Z Saturday, as cold front at this point is still across Indiana/Illinois border. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 PM Tuesday... Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will drive a cold front through the region Saturday morning. Models continue to slow down this front and now with the early Saturday morning arrival, it appears that t-storm chances are decreasing. Still left a mention for t-storms for now in the forecast, but expecting mostly showers with isolated embedded storms possible. Sharp temperature contrast behind the front and colder air arrives fairly quickly Saturday night. With northwest flow it is possible that we will see some snow flying Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but this activity will mainly be in the favorable upslope areas across Northern West Virginia Mountains. Models continue to be miles apart after Saturday. As ECMWF keeps high pressure overhead while the GFS has a clipper system pushing across the region. Continued with what previous forecast had with slight chance POPs Sunday night. All guidance agrees however, that warmer conditions will make a return by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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03Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday... As of 710 PM Tuesday... A weak upper disturbance with a moistening southerly flow will bring showers across mainly southern portions of the area tonight into Wednesday morning. VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR cigs and vsby with showers mainly after 06Z across southern sites including HTS, CRW and BKW. Northern sites will remain VFR, with scattered light showers also mainly after 06Z. Conditions will likely lower to IFR 10Z-14Z across east facing slopes of the WV and SW VA mountains including BKW. The showers will gradually taper off from west to east on Wednesday. However, with an increased moist atmosphere on continued light southerly flow, we look for generally MVFR ceilings spreading northward during the day and covering most areas by 20Z. Some east facing slopes may remain in IFR ceilings, but will improve BKW to MVFR by 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High early, becoming medium later tonight and Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR may be more widespread across the south late tonight and Wednesday morning than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JMV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.