Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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032 FXUS61 KRLX 241941 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 341 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening. High pressure will provide dry weather through midweek. Cold front with storms late work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Monday... Sent an update to increase PoPs along the line of showers and storms noted in radar. Some of these activity will affect the eastern mountains with strong gusty winds. Rest of forecast remains representative. As of 205 PM Monday... Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed ahead of the cold front entering the mid Ohio River Valley. Initially, a storm went up near PKB, getting pretty tall with a decent amount of lightning. But it struggled with the mid level cap and very dry air aloft and flattened out some. Expect this to be the trend through the afternoon...could get a pulse up from time to time with lightning and a brief downpour. Precipitable water maxes out around 1.5 inches this afternoon. With the dry air aloft, could also get a quick gust of wind due to dry air entrainment...but not expecting anything significant or widespread. The cold front will slide through late this afternoon into this evening. Expect a mix of low clouds and some river valley fog to form overnight in the lingering low level moisture. High pressure dominates for Tuesday with drier air in place.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Monday... Models have an upper ridge in the west and upper trough in the east. Canadian high pressure with cooler and drier air will dominate into Wednesday, continuing a respite from the heat and humidity of typical summer. The surface high shifts east Thursday with a marked increase in heat and humidity on increasing southerly flow. Models strongly agree a rather strong cold front will drop southeast within this upper regime, moving through the area Thursday night and Friday morning. Scattered showers and storms will increase Thursday well ahead of the front, especially over southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. Showers and storms will become more widespread Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front slides southeast through the area. Behind the front, an unusually cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during Friday with showers and storms ending from northwest to southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... This weekend will be dominated by Canadian high pressure as northwest flow aloft continues. There will be an increase in high temperatures over the weekend with abundant sunshine, but continued drier air under the high will still keep the more typical summer time humidities at bay. By Monday, the high shifts east with the heat and humidity beginning to increase, but storms are expected to hold off for Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected into this evening as a cold front slides through from the NW. Included VCTS at CRW, CKB and EKN... the sites most likely to get close to a storm. Would expect a brief restriction if a shower/storm crosses, but confidence on specific timing to low to go beyond vicinity coding right now. Models fairly insistent on a mix of low stratus and fog overnight. Based on previous nights, went with fog across the north, and stratus across the south. Any fog and or low stratus should dissipate quickly Tuesday morning, with VFR expected through the remainder of the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR to IFR possible in showers/storms today. Areas that get fog vs. stratus may differ tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Mainly VFR through midweek. Tstorm impacts likely Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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