Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242353 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 653 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Cooler Sunday. Milder through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 645 PM Friday... Expect another sharp fall in temps this evening before leveling out and rising late tonight. I have reworked hourly temp grids to reflect this thinking and allowing the mountain valleys to fall quickly below freezing before stabilizing. As of 200 PM Friday... A broad high pressure will continue to build east into the OH Valley and WV through early Saturday. Then, clouds and showers will increase ahead of an approaching front. Moisture associated with this front is limited. Therefore, expect light rain showers mainly across the northern portions of southeast OH and northern portions of WV on Saturday. Otherwise, especially the southern sections will remain dry with plenty of clouds. Models show different solutions with the limited moisture. Only the NAM brings light QPF while the rest of high resolution models are dry with this front. Southerly winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer, but low spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Friday... A mainly-dry cold front passes through the region during the day Saturday, with deep northwesterly flow providing strong cold air advection Saturday night. Moisture near the front itself is scarce, however low-level moisture from the Great Lakes, cold air advection processes, and upsloping will continue precip chances. Expect scattered rain showers in the northern WV mountains with a brief switch to mixed precip and possible light snow during the pre- dawn hours of Sunday, tapering entirely by mid-morning. High pressure quickly builds from the southwest Sunday, shifting to the Piedmont region by late Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday Southwesterly flow gradually creeps mild, above-average temperatures back into the region through mid-week. Models agree at this point on a short-wave trough moving through late in the week with rain showers, however timing discrepancies are abound so went with a general blend of PoPs with cooler temperatures on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 645 PM Friday... VFR conditions thru 15Z. A cold front will cross thereafter with MVFR stratocu developing during the afternoon...primarily across northern sites. Scattered showers will develop across the northern mountains, perhaps affecting EKN late in the period. Surface will decouple for a time this evening while a low level jet increases across the area 40-50 kts overnight. As a result, LLWS was coded up for all sites except BKW/EKN. As the core of the jet skirts the area, enough mixing will become realized for the LLWS threat to end during the predawn hours. Thereafter, southerly surface winds will become gusty 15 to 20 kts, becoming westerly following fropa. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may also develop at KEKN overnight. Alternately, enough mixing may occur tonight to keep LLWS threat window relatively short at the other terminals. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...30

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