Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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967 FXUS61 KRLX 291010 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 610 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds gradually break today as high pressure arrives. A warm front pushes in Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Wednesday... Cut back on afternoon highs another couple degrees in areas where clouds are expected to hang in longer. This is mainly along and south of I-64 across the lowlands. As of 130 AM Wednesday... Secondary cold front exiting the CWA early this morning with any isolated showers/drizzle ending. Dense layer of stratus in place under northerly flow. This will gradually break up today. There always seems to be an area covering a handful of counties where the clouds linger longer than expected. Quite often this is somewhere in the Kanawha Valley to Tri-State region. With this in mind, did increase cloud cover along I-64 across the lowlands into mid afternoon. Also dropped temps a few degrees in this area. In reality, there will probably be a much sharper gradient to the clouds than the forecast shows, so confidence not the highest on exactly how the clouds/temps evolve today. Winds gradually turn east to southeast tonight. This could lead to some rain/drizzle in the low level moisture trapped along the eastern slope late tonight. Opted to keep the forecast for tonight dry right now but do have clouds increasing ahead of an approaching warm front. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Active, but progressive pattern continues with a broad low pressure system crossing Friday. System spacing is buffered by a day or two on both sides. This tends to allow excess precip to evacuate the area making water issues less likely. Stuck in a pattern that keeps trekking systems` low pressure centers over OH/WV, so healthy doses of precip continue with each system keeping FFG low, but difficult to pull out specifics as slight variations in track equate to a different forecast. High pressure builds Saturday, but thick, residual low level moisture may keep -dz around. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... More of the same, continued parade of similar type systems and phasing with large breaks in between. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 610 AM Wednesday... Low stratus in place this morning producing MVFR to IFR. Clouds should slowly break up late this morning...possibly lingering into mid afternoon along and south of I-64. Winds will generally be northerly today, turning easterly then southeasterly overnight. With the SE flow, clouds and maybe some light rain or drizzle should redevelop along the eastern slopes tonight with some MVFR to IFR in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category improvement may vary today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M H H H H M M L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M BKW CONSISTENCY M L H M L H M M M M L M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H M M H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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