Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 110733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek bringing another arctic blast and ushering in a more unsettled pattern through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... Warm front gradually drifting northward through the northern CWA. Radar echos beginning to show up with this...however no obs showing any precip just yet with dry low levels. Atmosphere should gradually moisten up and expect some light snow to begin falling. Have a very tight POP gradient clipping extreme northern CWA based on HRRR and WRFNMM. All models in good agreement keeping the bulk of the activity north of the forecast area. With that said, do have some likely POPs in extreme northern Perry and Morgan counties with about an inch of snow accumulation during the pre- dawn. With the warm front north, have non-diurnal temperatures coded up for the remainder of this morning as WAA kicks in. This will also allow a nice warm up today for most. One exception will be the eastern slopes where southeast flow cold air damming will keep things on the cool side. As a low pressure system moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, a cold front will begin moving through from west to east. Have an area of 80+ POPs along and ahead of the front for tonight. Some concern that the eastern slopes could still be near freezing when the precip starts early Monday morning -- will need to monitor this for freezing rain potential. Have a few hundredths of ice accretion, mainly in Pocahontas County. Will add this to the HWO. For the rest of the forecast area, generally looking at around 0.4"-0.5" of rain tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... The tail end of a weather system will impact the area on Monday evening. While cold air is filtering in believe most places will remain rain with the exception being the highest terrain. After the front moves off to the east, high pressure builds and then the big story will be a bitter cold air intrusion on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... -20C 850 mb blob arrives Thursday and will drop temps into the low teens in the lowlands and single digits in the high country. Wind chills will likely drop to advisory levels in the Pocahontas and Randolph county highlands. Confidence remains low concerning overall pattern evolution for the remainder of the long term. Multiple rounds of precipitation are possible through the period with any waves embedded in the larger scale flow. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 AM Sunday... Warm front setting up north of the forecast area, with VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. Could get some MVFR to IFR in snow across extreme northwestern tip of CWA. VFR expected into tonight, with clouds on the increase. A surface low moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, bringing overnight rain. Expect IFR with this...although mainly after the end of the current TAF period. Winds will gradually turn from southeast to southwest through the TAF period. Have some LLWS in the TAFs where calm surface winds in the inversion are under a decent south to southwesterly flow just off the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium SE OH/N WV. High elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes tonight may vary. LLWS may end sooner than later if inversion breaks down. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/11/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain and stratus late tonight into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...DTC/JW AVIATION...MZ

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