-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 111739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND TURNING MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMING FRIDAY. WEAKER COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT OUTBREAK OF SPRING FEVER PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. PATCHES OF MID DECK SHOULD NOT INTERFERE MUCH. SO STILL
LIKE OUR FORECAST WHICH IS A BIT WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.

925 MB FLOW ON REMOTE SENSING ARND 25 TO 30 KNOTS 13 TO 14Z... SO
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS A BIT FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET TOO
ROBUST SINCE THE 925 MB FLOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON.

WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS NOW TAKE THE CENTRAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A BIT FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
STANDPOINT...THIS ALLOWS THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WORK ITS WAY FURTHER NORTH. THIS NOW BRINGS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS SEEN IN LIFTED INDICES AGAIN IN THE 0
TO -2 RANGE.

EXPECTING A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BEHIND THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IS OFTEN TIMES THE
CASE...THE QUESTIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA IN TIME FOR APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW FALL WILL COME IN THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE IN THE THERMAL
TROUGH.

IMPORTANT TO NOTE WILL BE THE IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE DROPS IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
FROM NEAR 10C 12Z WEDNESDAY TO -20C 06Z THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL SEE AIR BEGIN WEDNESDAY
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
WITH 20S AND 30S IN PLAY BY 00Z THURSDAY. POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
THAN THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL GIVEN
THE WET SURFACE FROM THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RAINFALL EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD TEENS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWSHOE WILL END UP
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH FOR
THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
BRIEF UPSLOPE CONDITIONS.

A RAPID APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY BRINGS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT VERY QUICKLY...AND A HUGE
REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A RATHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPS WILL ENSUE FOR
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON MAGNITUDE
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS ON
THE COLDER SIDE. THIS LEADS TO IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY HANDLING SOME ENERGY DIVING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MEAN TROF AND ECWMF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS CLOSING
OFF INTO A POTENT UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES THE SE STATES...INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND THUS A STORMY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS DAMPENS OUT THIS ENERGY AND ALLOWS THE UPPER TROF TO
OVERWHELM THE E CONUS WITH COLD AIR AND STORM. GONNA SIDE CLOSE TO
HPC SOLUTION WHICH GIVES GREATER WEIGHT TO MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF
VERSUS THE WAFFLING GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. ALTHOUGH EVEN ECWMF IS
NOT ENTIRELY STABLE REGARDING WHETHER IT BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE
MEAN TROF OR NOT. NEVERTHELESS...PREFERRED SOLUTION HAS A SURFACE
LOW ORGANIZING ALONG THE SE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
INFLUENCE FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX ANTICIPATED BUT TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH INITIAL BAND
OF RAIN ARRIVING 08Z TO 13Z...MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...LESS COVERAGE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
CEILINGS BECOMING 2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN
RAIN...POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN...MAY BE A LULL IN WEST VIRGINIA FOR
2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  HAVE
THE COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR A CKB TO CRW LINE AROUND 18Z.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2
THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES.  SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 18Z.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ALONG FRONT
SHOULD INCREASE E OF CKB-CRW LINE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

WIND GUSTS INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS ARRIVING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE DROPPED TO MEDIUM TRYING TO TIME ANY LULL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BETWEEN INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN AND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
LINGERING IFR IN BACKLASH RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB