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032
FXUS61 KRLX 241941
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
into this evening. High pressure will provide dry weather
through midweek. Cold front with storms late work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM Monday...

Sent an update to increase PoPs along the line of showers and
storms noted in radar. Some of these activity will affect the
eastern mountains with strong gusty winds. Rest of forecast
remains representative.

As of 205 PM Monday...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed ahead
of the cold front entering the mid Ohio River Valley. Initially,
a storm went up near PKB, getting pretty tall with a decent
amount of lightning. But it struggled with the mid level cap and
very dry air aloft and flattened out some. Expect this to be
the trend through the afternoon...could get a pulse up from time
to time with lightning and a brief downpour. Precipitable water
maxes out around 1.5 inches this afternoon. With the dry air
aloft, could also get a quick gust of wind due to dry air
entrainment...but not expecting anything significant or
widespread.

The cold front will slide through late this afternoon into this
evening. Expect a mix of low clouds and some river valley fog
to form overnight in the lingering low level moisture. High
pressure dominates for Tuesday with drier air in place.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Monday...

Models have an upper ridge in the west and upper trough in the
east. Canadian high pressure with cooler and drier air will
dominate into Wednesday, continuing a respite from the heat and
humidity of typical summer. The surface high shifts east Thursday
with a marked increase in heat and humidity on increasing
southerly flow. Models strongly agree a rather strong cold
front will drop southeast within this upper regime, moving
through the area Thursday night and Friday morning. Scattered
showers and storms will increase Thursday well ahead of the
front, especially over southeast Ohio and northern West
Virginia. Showers and storms will become more widespread
Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front slides
southeast through the area. Behind the front, an unusually
cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during Friday with
showers and storms ending from northwest to southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM Monday...

This weekend will be dominated by Canadian high pressure as
northwest flow aloft continues. There will be an increase in
high temperatures over the weekend with abundant sunshine, but
continued drier air under the high will still keep the more
typical summer time humidities at bay. By Monday, the high
shifts east with the heat and humidity beginning to increase,
but storms are expected to hold off for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected into
this evening as a cold front slides through from the NW.
Included VCTS at CRW, CKB and EKN... the sites most likely to
get close to a storm. Would expect a brief restriction if a
shower/storm crosses, but confidence on specific timing to low
to go beyond vicinity coding right now.

Models fairly insistent on a mix of low stratus and fog
overnight. Based on previous nights, went with fog across the
north, and stratus across the south.

Any fog and or low stratus should dissipate quickly Tuesday
morning, with VFR expected through the remainder of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR to IFR possible in showers/storms
today. Areas that get fog vs. stratus may differ tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...

Mainly VFR through midweek. Tstorm impacts likely Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ