Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291904 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 304 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold fronts cross Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure Thursday. A low brings a front into the area Friday and Saturday. Unsettled again next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM Monday... Cold front has passed the region and seeing some diurnal Cu develop in the wake of the front this afternoon. Cloud cover should dissipate after sunset this evening. Another cold front will push through the region tomorrow, however the best dynamics will be positioned to our north. Moisture will also be limited, but we should see at least isolated to then scattered showers by 18Z Tuesday. Expecting a boost to the shower activity with orographic accent in the mountains, but still not confident in how widepsread the coverage will be, so have capped the PoPs at just Chance for now. Low level flow increases out ahead of the front tonight and there should be enough turbulent mixing within the boundary layer to hinder fog development. However, across our eastern zones the flow remains weak until later Tuesday morning and there is a chance for some fog across the sheltered mountain valleys. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Monday... Wednesday will start relatively dry with a cold front to our east. However, diurnal heating with CAPE exceeding 1800 J/Kg, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots and pwats around 1.3 inches are enough ingredients for Wednesday afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure brings drier conditions behind the front Wednesday night and for the most part Thursday. A weak front associated with a strong upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will bring low chance for precipitation Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Monday... Another, but weak cold front approaches from the north Friday into Saturday with better chances for showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to stall across our area keeping the chances for showers and storms through the end of the period. The GFS shows strong upper waves with this front which could delay the timing of the front and produce heavy weather Saturday and Saturday night. Made minor adjustments to PoPs Friday and Saturday. Went with the blend of models through the rest of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... One cold front is just about through the region this afternoon, but another one will press into the area tomorrow. Good news is that mostly VFR conditions are expected today with just some Scattered Cumulus decks developing behind the front, but they should dissipate around sunset this evening. Low level flow out ahead of the next front should hinder fog develop tonight, except for possibly in our sheltered mountain valleys. Decided to add IFR fog early tomorrow morning at EKN due to weaker flow there, but still not sure if mid to upper level clouds ahead of the front will prevent fog from developing even there. Our front tomorrow will be moisture starved, but scattered showers will be possible by Tuesday afternoon. Have decided to hold off putting any showers in the TAFs at this time, but could see possible MVFR showers into the Ohio River Valley by 16Z tomorrow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium confidence at EKN with possible Fog, High confidence elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog may not develop at EKN overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, and maybe in fog Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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