Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271939 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVEREAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR. .AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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