Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201844 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 144 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT LONGER. STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MZ

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