-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO IMPROVE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD MIXED PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN...SOME IN
THE FORM OF MIX RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. WENT
WITH THE WRFNMM FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND CLOSER TO THE NAM FOR
LOWS TONIGHT.

WITH THE PCPN EXITING THE AREA...THE THREAT FOR AREAL FLOODING HAS
DIMINISHED AND FLOOD IS NOT LONGER EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...THE
FORMER FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED. THE ONLY HEADLINE STANDS FOR A
WINTER STORM WATCH THAT CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
FOR POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND IMPACTS FROM
ICE AND RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR AN ICE STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...THE NEXT SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING
OUT AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE...SFC WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANCHORING IN COLD AIR NEAR SURFACE. PRECIP WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY 18Z SUN. AT 12Z SUN PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
FOR MOST LOWLANDS...WITH ALL RAIN FOR THE VA COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
MCDOWELL COUNTY WV...AND A WINTRY MIX IN BETWEEN. THE TRANSITION
ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RAIN EXPECTED
FROM THE CRW-HTS CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COALFIELDS BY AROUND
18Z. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SNOW A BIT LONGER. MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL TRANSITION WHAT WAS INITIALLY SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO FREEZING RAIN BY 18Z SUN. WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING IN PLACE...EXPECT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND IN PARTICULAR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF RALEIGH COUNTY WV NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
RANDOLPH COUNTIES TO SEE THE BULK OF THE ICE POTENTIAL. UPGRADED
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FROM WATCH TO WARNING FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OF UP TO A HALF INCH...AGAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALVES OF THESE COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH...QUESTION IS WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO WARNING OR ADVISORY. STILL NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
NECESSARY ICE ACCUM FOR A WARNING HERE AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT IT. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE
IS POSSIBLE FROM RALEIGH COUNTY UP TOWARDS WEBSTER
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES WHERE A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE APPEARS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...EXPECT A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. AND FINALLY...WATER WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED ONCE AGAIN WITH ALREADY SWOLLEN STREAMS AND RIVERS
FROM THU/FRI RAINS AND UPWARDS OF 1.00-1.50IN OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING PRECIP AS
RAIN BY 12Z MON. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
INHERITED MAX TEMPS MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S STILL LOOK
ON TRACK. DID WARM MIN TEMPS UP ON MONDAY NIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES DRY...BUT YET ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TAKES CONTROL TUESDAY AND LASTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UNDER DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE BUT COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTER SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF
CLOUDS...EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK...BRINGING QUITE COLD NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING TO
IMPROVE LIFR CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND
THEN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COULD PROVIDE AREAS 0F IFR
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES AS SNOW AFFECTS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS
OF WV TODAY.

VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. SITES
PRONE TO SNOW EFFECTS ARE HTS...PKB...AND CRW. OTHER SITES SUCH AS
EKN AND CKB COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS UNDER SNOW LATER
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA SAT WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MORNING GIVING
WAY TO VFR BY NOON LOWLANDS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW WILL BE N TO NW WHILE MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO
LIGHT NW W OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY ON...THIS SHIFT REACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SAT...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT THEN REMAINING THROUGHOUT
THE AREA THROUGH SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORICAL AND PRECIP CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND THEN
RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END...CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH AS WE TRANSITION INTO RIVER FLOODING. MAIN CONCERNS
NOW LIE WITH MAINSTREAM RIVERS AS RUNOFF CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST RISES THUS FAR HAVE BEEN AT TORNADO ON THE COAL AND
ALONG THE TYGART VALLEY RIVER AT BELINGTON AND PHILIPPI WHERE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED AT CLAY AND QUEEN SHOALS FOR THE ELK.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ADDITIONAL PARTS FOR PARKERSBURG ASOS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR WVZ035>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...