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988
FXUS61 KRLX 131539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue into the new work week as a warm and
moist airmass remains in place.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1125 AM Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon, especially across the higher elevations of eastern
West Virginia. Short-term model guidance consistently shows PWAT
values reaching 1.75-2.00 area-wide. While severe weather is
unlikely due to a lack of significant wind shear, an isolated
stronger storm or two could develop, bringing localized
damaging wind gusts.

A cold front will slowly approach the Ohio River Monday, with a 60-
70% chance of stalling along or just west of the river. The NBM
model has shown increased confidence in this stalling, leading to a
higher probability (50-70%) of increased PoPs across the region for
Monday afternoon. Heavy downpours remain a concern with PWATs
expected to be at or around 2.00. However, storms should be moving
fast enough ahead of the front to prevent widespread flooding
issues. An alternate scenario for Monday is the front pushing
further east into West Virginia, which could lead to drier
conditions along and west of the Ohio River. However, this
alternate scenario does not look likely.

Expect high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and
Monday with dew points reaching the middle 70s. Staying hydrated and
taking breaks in air conditioning will be necessary when spending
extended time outdoors.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1128 AM Sunday...

For Tuesday, there is a 40-60% probability of rain, primarily
concentrated over the mountains. This represents an increase from
yesterday`s 10-30% probability, likely influenced by the high-
pressure center`s projected position just east of the Appalachians
and lingering upper-level energy. Wednesday presents similar
probabilities for showers and thunderstorms due to a comparable
atmospheric setup. Both days carry an elevated probability of heavy
downpours within any developing storms, with precipitable water
values ranging from 1.60-1.80.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1129 AM Sunday...

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are highly probable from
Thursday through Saturday. A high-pressure system along the
Southeast U.S. coastline will channel significant Gulf moisture into
the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. While models
generally indicate a front approaching the Ohio River between
Thursday and Saturday, there is inconsistency regarding its precise
timing.

Based on the latest runs from the NBM, ECMWF, and GFS, the most
probable scenario (supported by a majority of recent model runs,
especially the NBM and more recent GFS runs) is that the front
stalls over our region, leading to continued rain chances into next
weekend. A less likely alternate scenario (supported by earlier
model iterations and some ECMWF variability, though it now leans
towards stalling) suggests the front pushes through more
definitively. This could temporarily decrease rain chances after the
frontal passage before renewed moisture advection.
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&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1134 AM Sunday...

Conditions will be a mixture of VFR and MVFR the rest of today
with a field of cumulus and stratocumulus developing across the
area. Thunderstorms will begin to erupt by 18Z, lasting through
around 00Z Monday. Beyond 00Z, there can still be some lingering
showers.

IFR conditions are expected overnight with patchy river valley
fog developing, especially in places where it rained today. The
most likely locations to experience IFR fog overnight into early
Monday morning are KCRW, KEKN, and KCKB. Although, this could
change, depending on exactly where rain falls today. In
addition, an approaching cold front from the west will usher in
a scattered low stratus deck overnight, likely beginning around
06Z. The front will stall out west of the Ohio River.

Scattered showers are expected Monday from 12Z-18Z. Beyond 18Z
Monday, thunderstorms will develop once again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and extent of fog
overnight will vary, depending on where the rain falls today.
Areas that see rain today will likely see fog overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR river valley fog possible during the overnights.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC