Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291054 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 554 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY MID WEEK...WITH DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 5:45 AM UPDATE...CLEARNING CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS IS OCCURRING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SO HAVE UPDATED FOR THIS. ALSO REMOVED THE AREAS OF FOG AS THAT HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. MESSY FORECAST TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY. TONIGHT THIS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S TODAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED WAVE NOTICEABLE IN H500 VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE ALOFT TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR AS SEEN BY H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING MINUS EIGHT BY 18 TUESDAY UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTING A NON DIURNAL TREND. WENT WITH NEAR STEADY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CAA CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 1000 FEET WITH NO INVERSION. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S LOWLANDS...AND INTO THE SINGLY DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BOTH NIGHTS TUESDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING POPS. HAVE POPS MAXING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLOWED DOWN OVERALL PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS. RECENTLY THE ECMWF HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS NOT USED. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. KPKB IS VFR AND KHTS WILL BE GOING VFR BEFORE 12Z. KCKB WILL ALSO BEING GOING VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. AFTER 15Z IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR WITH SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS GOING CALM OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UPPER FRONT MOVING WESTWARD AND CAUSING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LASTING PAST 15Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...FB

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