Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260226 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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925 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT...FELT NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE HEADLINES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THUS LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...AND THAT PERIOD OF GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND THUS HEAVIER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DURATION...WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED. WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES AS IS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED. ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY AND LARGE. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED NT INTO THU MORNING. TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW -10C. THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS. WARM ADVECTION AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH/EAST TO NORTH/WEST AS A LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OUT IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH RAIN BELOW 2500 FEET ELEVATION 06-12Z...WITH SNOW AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY AFTER 12-15Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND VA. SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M L M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ032-037>040. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003- 004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL

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