Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280633 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 225 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Sunday... The weather pattern continues to remain fairly consistent with hot and humid conditions under upper ridge. Heat indices will once again approach 100 degrees in the tri-state region. May need to go with a heat advisory for this area, will evaluate over the next couple hours. Do have some weak low level convergence and a ripple rotating around the upper high this afternoon. This should lead to convection popping up today, with the best coverage in the the Ohio River valley later this afternoon into this evening. These showers and storms should wane overnight with another muggy night on tap. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Models showing a cold front sagging southward into the area on Monday...gradually pushing southward on Tuesday. There is considerable spread in the models with the position of this front...which drastically effects the forecast. Used a ECMWF and GFS blend for now...which remains on the northerly side of guidance with the frontal position. This seems reasonable due to the very light flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Guidance is in good agreement with large ridge developing over the Central U.S. by Mid week and a upper level trough digging into the Eastern U.S. Cold front looks to cross the region late Wednesday with a chance for showers and storms but the good news is that this will bring cooler and drier air behind it. Temperatures look to be around normal for this time of year by the end of the week...with highs in the low 80s and lows near 60. However...the break may be short as ridge in the Central U.S. will likely slide east by next weekend...opening the door for tropical moisture into the region once again. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM Sunday... 06Z Sunday through 06Z Monday... Satellite shows decent cirrus deck moving across southern half of CWA...which could play havoc with fog formation early this morning...and leads to a lower confidence forecast. EKN already fogging in...which should linger through sunrise. Went with IFR fog at CRW and CKB. Think the clouds and current dewpoint depression will keep dense fog at bay for HTS and PKB. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms today, and have included vicinity thunderstorms where expecting better coverage this afternoon/evening. Depending on rain...and lingering clouds...will most likely have some areas of dense fog again tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MZ

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