Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030535 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 135 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO SLOWLY DRY OUT WEDNESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK...WITH EAST FLOW HERE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW HOURS AGO...KRLX RADAR INDICATED A BOUNDARY PROPAGATED NW INTO THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED IN THE CHARLESTON AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FORECASTED NUMBERS. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL BELOW FORECASTED NUMBERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT THIS TREND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AREA SOCKED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WAS EVEN STRONGER THEN PROGGED. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN A LIGHT FLOW REGIME BUT BETTER MIXING WED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE SHOULD GIVE RISE TO BREAKS AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LEEWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERSION AND CLOUD DECK HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE S...JUST S OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN SW VA AND ERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING...AND A SHOWER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION NEARBY THERE. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS...A REVERSAL OF THE PATTERN MON WHEN A FRONT DISSECTED THE AREA INTO A CLOUDY...COOL REGIME OVER THE LOWLANDS AND A SUNNIER...WARMER REGIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE E TRIES TO WORK WWD IN THE ERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW SW OF...AND BY WED AFTERNOON S OF...THE FCST AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE RUNNING EVEN BELOW RAW GUIDANCE AND SHOULD CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LESS SO BY WED AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA...WILL KEEP MOUNTAINS COOL AND CLOUDY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MIX OF MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EARLY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP LATER TODAY...WITH SHOULD HELP CLOUDS LIFT EVEN MORE FROM CKB TO CRW...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO BKW FOR TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERALL TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA MAY VARY. .AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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