Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301434 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER POPULATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START ADVECTING TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPDATE... ASIDE FROM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTING TO THE EAST...WILL BE GETTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD. HAVE TWO MECHANISMS DRIVING THE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW...PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW. THE SECOND PORTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD PUSH INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AROUND 03Z OR SO AND WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LIKELY POPS. IN THE END...THIS WILL MARK THE FIRST WAVE OF A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED WET PERIOD. INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL NOT BLANKET THE POPS WITH THUNDER. RAN THE THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON NAM CAPE...BUMPING THE THRESHOLD UP A BIT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT BIAS OF THE MODEL. PWAT VALUES STILL OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOT SURPRISING BY ANY STRETCH GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT THE COOLER LATE JULY AND VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE AUGUST HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ROLES...HAVE ANOTHER DAY WHERE 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HIT HERE AND THERE. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE TOPPED BY MUCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN HANDLING AT LEAST ONE OF THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL BE PULLED UP AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK INDICATES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. USUALLY WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER. THUS...WHILE CAT POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR SUNDAY...WILL PUT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE CHANCE OR SCATTERED CATEGORY. IF THERE WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT KEEPS MENTION OF POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY EVENING...CARRYING THE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD WITH IT. THIS LEAVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH PWS STILL NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WILL KEEP SMALLER POPS IN MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...THIS TIME DRAGGING A COOL FRONT WITH IT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THIS ONE...SO WILL COMPROMISE WHICH LEADS TO TUESDAY BEING THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUITE HUMID PERIOD. CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY. THEY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS THERE MAY BE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MUGGY AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO WILL BE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. SHRA/VCTS IS DEFINITELY A BETTER PLAY THAN TSRA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BKW TO HTS LINE MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ANY TIME AFTER 00Z SUNDAY HOWEVER. TIMING IN TAFS IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...26

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