Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192030 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 430 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP. WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER RESOLUTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND. TIL 00Z...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF NO SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WIND AT SURFACE CONTINUES TO STIR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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