Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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165 FXUS61 KRLX 291324 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 920 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front remains just to the north today. Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 920 AM Saturday... Will update the forecast to better account for the latest radar, satellite, and meso model trends for today. Also concerned that precipitation this morning may have moistened atmosphere further south than models are indicating, meaning there might be more afternoon convection further south than indicated in the models. As of 610 AM Saturday... Last of the stronger line of storms from overnight exiting CWA to the NE. Still plenty of showers and storms to our west and have maintain some isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tonight...mainly in SE Ohio and also mountains of WV. Flash flood watch remains in effect for multiple waves of convection moving through mainly SE Ohio this morning, which could lead to localized amounts of 1-2 inches of rain. Combined with areas of 1-1.5 inches that fell overnight, anticipate there could be some issues on creeks and streams in the middle Ohio River Valley. Cut back highs across the northern portion of CWA by 5-10 degrees due to abundant clouds and showers. Still looking like mid to upper 80s across the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... In the warm sector, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across the northern half of the CWA Sunday. Otherwise just looking at a summer like day with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands. Cold front moves through on Monday with showers and storms. Ahead of the cold front we should have a modestly unstable air mass with decent shear as well. This could lead to at least an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon east of the Ohio River -- as noted by marginal risk from SPC. Have included this in the HWO. In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier weather moves in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday... The bulk of the long term looks to be influenced by a close upper low developing somewhere across the midwest Thursday into Friday. GFS and ECMWF both show the feature, but handle it differently. Either way it looks like a cool, cloudy and rainy end of the work week. Stuck close to a consensus blend, which despite the model differences, still has likely POPs Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 610 AM Saturday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to continue today across mainly the northern half of the CWA. Periods of MVFR and possibly brief IFR possible in these. Father south, expect drier weather with some mid to high clouds passing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ009>011. OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ101. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MZ

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