Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260754 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 254 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH COVERING THE OH VALLEY...WV...THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S LOWLANDS...TO THE MID 40S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...AND 20-30 KNOTS MAINLY WEST AT H850. AFTERNOON MIXING COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. AT NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR CALM WIND...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ISOLATED AREAS COULD EVEN REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT. WENT COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER CHILLY NT FRI NT...BEFORE EXITING ON SAT. HAVE SIMILAR TIMING AS PREVIOUS FCST FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SAT EVENING...AS A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY A LONG...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WELL BEHIND IT. THAT TROUGH MINORS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND BEYOND...AS A LARGE TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG THE CONUS W COAST BACKS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SAT NT...BUT A FLAT WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO CATCH UP TO IT...IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED MIX FOR LOWS FRI NT AND HIGHS SAT...AND THEN FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES SAT NT AND SUN AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. ONLY HAVE TEMPERATURES GETTING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S NW CORNER OF FCST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THIS IS A RAIN ONLY EVENT THROUGH THAT TIME. VIA THE RFC...HAVE FROM TWO DIMES QPF IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS...AND CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLING OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...AND HAVE POPS COMING TO AND END ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT ON GFS AND ECMWF...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS THE COLD AIR SQUEEZES OUT WHAT REMAINS OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A GOOD DEAL LOWER ON THE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS HIGH NOSES IN...SO LOWERED POPS VS. PREVIOUS FORECAST. BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...TO COVER THE MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY INCLUDING WV THROUGH SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW STRATUS FINALLY LIFTED NORTH ACROSS PKB...CKB AND EKN AROUND MIDNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE AFTERNOON SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER DIURNAL MIXING WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 22Z FRIDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS OVER MOST SITES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...AND CALM DURING THE NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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