Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200647 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 247 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM Friday...No major changes to the forecast, however I did lower the extent of the fog cover through this morning. Low level flow should be just strong enough to keep fog at a minimum and I have confined the fog cover strictly to the larger river valleys. As of 810 PM Thursday... High pressure in control. No changes. As of 225 PM Thursday... These near term shifts continue to remain void of any significant weather. There will be a weak front crossing this evening across the northern reaches of the CWA but will have little if any impact other than a few clouds. Expect another quick drop in temps this evening in the valleys and hollows. Overnight lows will see a few degrees improvement from last night/this morning, continuing the trend over the past few days. The boundary winds will be a bit more relaxed tonight, so expect some dense river valley fog, primarily hugging the main stem river banks. One can basically paste today`s weather in for tomorrow, with sunshine amid temperatures running 8 to 12 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 245 AM Friday... High pressure remains in control through the short term.Used a consensus blend for highs and lows, with temperatures continuing to run above normal for late October.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 245 AM Friday... A cold front will push through Monday night into Tuesday. Models have some discrepancy on timing of the front, and especially the track of the low pressure system the front is attached to. The ECMWF is much farther west, taking the low from Western TN, through IN and Northwest OH. The GFS on the other hand brings the low across the forecast area. Either solution should still result in a good dose of precipitation, so have a fairly broad area of 80+ POPs. Kept some low probability thunder mention in Monday afternoon just ahead of the cold front. Cold air filters in as an upper trough slides through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Should enough moisture linger behind the surface feature, we could see some snow flakes at high elevations. A brief ridge dries things out to end the work week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Friday... Low level flow should be strong enough through the morning to keep valley fog at a minimum. Dense fog should remain very close to the rivers. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will persist through today with high pressure overhead. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Still some concern at EKN for IFR fog, as low level flow may weaken enough there before sunrise. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK

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