Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190533 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1233 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system exits this morning. Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Sunday... Updated POPs based on current radar and blend of HRRR and WRF- NMM. Have likely POPs early this morning transitioning from HTS-CRW to the northern mountainous counties through 09Z, and then decreasing fairly quickly as the surface wave driving the precip head off to the east. Generally have around a tenth of an inch QPF in this likely POP area, with only a hundredth or two in the scattered showers on either side. Only minimal changes made to temperature forecast through the period, with 50s and 60s today and upper 30s to low 40s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. I hedged toward the slower NAM given the stout upper ridge that will be in place ahead of this system. Still feel many southern areas hit or surpass 70 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, despite the abundance of high clouds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... The very warm pattern continues through the week. A weak system passes Wednesday. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties trees/vegetation. They looks to be a brief respite from the warmth over the weekend as a colder air works in. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 AM Sunday... Surface wave sliding through early this morning is bringing an area of light showers from HTS to CRW and then into the northern mountains. So far remaining all VFR, however ceilings will drop into MVFR over the next few hours. Some guidance suggests IFR ceilings...but LAMP trends are not indicative of widespread IFR. Did include some just after sunrise at BKW...but kept everyone else MVFR. Clouds should gradually scatter out into the afternoon. Wind will generally be SW to W through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and change in ceiling category may change. Low chance of IFR ceilings at other TAF sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 02/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H L H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H L M H L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L H M M L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Widespread IFR not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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