Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 292149 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 547 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure exits tonight. A warm front pushes in late Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses Thursday night and Friday. High pressure crosses Sunday. Next system Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 547 PM Wednesday... Updated forecast to lower sky cover this evening based on latest satellite and meso model trends. As of 127 PM Wednesday... Clouds have been much slower to clear than previously thought. However, they are now clearing, especially from the north and west. The clouds should continue to clear during the evening hours. Clouds will then begin to increase across portions of the mountains by late tonight, as winds turn easterly ahead of an area of low pressure. The low pressure system will continue to approach the area Thursday, with a warm front expected to push into the region from the southwest during the afternoon. Expect precipitation chances will increase on Thursday. However, the models differ about the onset of the precipitation chances. Latest 12 UTC NAM suggests that much of the area should remain dry with some low precipitation chances developing in the mountains. Latest 12 UTC GFS is much faster with precipitation chances across much of our NE KY and SE OH counties by daybreak. The precipitation chances will then spread across the remainder of the area during the day. Previous forecast indicated a trend which was a compromise of these models and see no reason to make any wholesale changes to that forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /4 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Wednesday... The next in the series of spring southern stream bowling balls approaches Thursday night, and then rolls across Friday and Friday night. Showers associated with the warm front may be lifting up through the middle Ohio valley Thursday evening. Otherwise, models, most notably the NAM, are slower with this system, delaying the main round of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front, so that, with the loss of heating, thunder is more likely Friday than Thursday, albeit more like morning and midday rather than Friday afternoon. The system pulls out of the area late Friday and Friday night, with upslope rain showers / drizzle lasting into Saturday. High pressure brings some clearing Saturday night. Temperatures and dew points in line with previous forecast and central guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 PM Wednesday... After a dry close to the weekend, the next spring southern stream bowling ball approaches late Sunday night and Monday, and crosses late Monday night into Tuesday, and the one after that may already be approaching by the end of the day on Wednesday. Temperatures continue above normal including behind the cold front Wednesday, with central guidance staying largely in line with the previous forecast. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 127 PM Wednesday... Low clouds continue to erode with much of the region still experiencing mvfr cigs. Conditions should rapidly improve with most locations having vfr conditions by 23 UTC. An area of low pressure will approach the area tonight. In response, northeasterly winds will turning easterly then southeasterly overnight. With the southeast flow, clouds and maybe some light rain or drizzle should redevelop along the eastern slopes tonight with some MVFR to IFR in the mountains. As low pressure system continues to approach on Thursday, expect chances for showers will spread across southeast Ohio, Northeast Kentucky and the western half of West Virginia by 18 UTC. There could also be a few thunderstorms. Much of the area will see VFR conditions with MVFR to IFR conditions still possible in the mountains FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Clouds could be slower to erode this afternoon. Showers and ifr conditions could be more prevalent in the mountains than thought. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH/RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JSH

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