Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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290 FXUS61 KRLX 230529 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain through Friday night. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 100 AM Friday... Adjusted PoPs according to latest radar images and removed thunder through 12Z. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 745 PM Thursday... Tweaked hourly temperatures and wind grids. Otherwise, previous forecast appears to be on track. As of 215 PM Thursday... First round of showers and storms moving generally northeastward at the moment, pushing into the Tug Fork Valley along the nose of a low level 850mb jet running around 50kts. This will be a slow to push northward through the evening, essentially priming the surface and triggering the potential for flooding later on in the forecast. Tropical moisture from Cindy still the main issue as it stream in the low and mid levels, and have PWATs 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Bulk of the rain organizing along the frontogenesis bands will take place in OH/WV northern panhandle/PA, clipping our northwestern zones in southeastern Ohio heading into Friday. Given the set up, cannot ignore the severe threat tomorrow, that still has more questions than answers right now. The low to mid tropospheric flow setup is favorable, but surface based instability is in question given clouds, although some breaks in the cover and insolation could provide a short window for storms to form well ahead of the cold front. Water loading and less than favorable mid level lapse rates could also hinder severe threats, but again, the increasing flow may win out in this situation. Heaviest rain is slated for the short term. Flash flood watch issued, however, with thunderstorm potential this evening and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Thursday... Remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be passing over the forecast area Friday night. NCEP 12Z models along with the ECMWF are in pretty close agreement in terms of their mass and synoptic fields and show the circulation passing by around 06Z Saturday. Canadian NH taking main circulation a bit further south into VA. Still noted considerable differences in QPF output and associated moisture fields in the models. For this forecast cycle, we bisect max QPF axis on Friday night across central WV, with the higher amounts painted across the southern coalfields. The rainfall rate maxima will occur in association with front as it passes through. Flash Flood watches posted since tropical downpours combined with already wet soils from previous rains will make water problems strong possibility. Flood potential will remain with us on Saturday, and depending on where heaviest precipitation falls, could mainly be relegated to the main stem rivers as headwater runoff moves down to the larger river channels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 PM Thursday... General troughiness will be in place over the Eastern United States with weaker shortwaves rotating through. Atmospheric columns will be relatively dry in comparison to previous tropical airmass that have been dominating the weather pattern for our area. As each of these disturbances rotate through, we could see some light shower development. Went with blends for temps and pops. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 AM Friday... Radar images show a batch of MVFR/IFR showers moving northeast across PKB, CKB and EKN. Brief IFR conditions could be possible under heavier rain. Rainfall activity will diminish from southwest to northeast overnight. Models are in agreement in bringing a wave of showers and thunderstorms around 18-20Z Friday, particuarly across southeast Ohio, shifting eastward across the area towards 00Z Saturday and beyond. Expect heavy downpours, IFR/LIFR conditions, and the possibility of strong damaging winds. Most of the area is under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Expect amendment will be required especially winds and visibility. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of any MVFR conditions overnight may vary from forecast. Timing and development of tsra on Friday may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H L H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H L H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M L H H H M M H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L H H H H H L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

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