Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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124 FXUS61 KRLX 201831 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 131 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the work week. Weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weather for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Today... High pressure north of the area today slides off to the northeast, and off the northeast U. S. coast, on Tuesday. That high will keep dry weather in place most of the period. There is a chance for showers getting into the middle Ohio Valley late in the day on Tuesday, as an upper level short wave trough approaches, but deep layer moisture and instability remain absent. Lowered lows a bit tonight but still closer to the higher MET versus the lower MAV. Highs Tuesday were close to a blend of the guidance and accepted. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Light shower activity will return to the region by Tuesday evening/night, as a weak frontal boundary, and moisture from a low in the Gulf of Mexico, interact. Overall, amounts look to be light, with greatest activity expected across the southern zones, where more moisture will be present from aforementioned low. Mostly dry by mid week, but a warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area on Thursday, with isold-sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north, as it does so. Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal, particularly Thursday into Friday, as southerly flow increases out ahead of approaching cold front. In addition to the warmth, winds will pick up as we approach the end of the work week, with gusty conditions developing due to enhanced pressure gradient and increasing winds aloft. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Strong cold front will move through the area Friday night and Saturday. Still some uncertainty in this time period, but possible we could be looking at strong thunderstorms during this time period. However at this point, greater chance of severe lies just to the west of the CWA, where better instability and shear will exist. Behind the cold front, Saturday will become much cooler, and windy due to strong CAA, with the possibility of light rain and snow showers developing later on into Sunday, particularly across the higher terrain. Linger some low end POPs Friday as well in the warm sector, and then have POPs increasing pretty quickly Friday night as a cold front moves through. ECMWF pretty quick on moving the moisture out by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS has wrap-around moisture lingering. For now stuck closer to the ECMWF and have POPs ending by Saturday night, with a dry forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Today... Mainly VFR forecast as high pressure slides off to the east. The southerly flow on the back side of the exiting high should preclude the fog from reforming tonight for the most part. Did allow for a brief period of MVFR most along the Ohio River overnight tonight. Surface flow will remain light and variable into tonight, before becoming southeast late, and then south on Tuesday. Light southeast flow aloft will become light south and then southwest tonight, and remain light southwest on Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be more fog overnight tonight than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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