Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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961 FXUS61 KRLX 232015 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 415 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will generally be in control into the weekend. Marginal moisture/instability may produce showers/storms...mainly during the afternoon/evening starting late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers/storm have developed over the northern West Virginia mountains. Models suggest these storms will continue into evening hours...before dissipating before midnight. With high pressure in control...expect conditions will be quite favorable for dense valley fog to develop once again tonight... generally after 04 utc. The fog and any low clouds that form tonight should dissipate shortly after sunrise on Tuesday. GFS suggests there could be some showers and storms across the northern mountains again Tuesday afternoon...while NAM suggests dry conditions. Have decided to keep forecast dry for now. Temperature guidance is relatively close and is similar to previously forecasted lows for tonight and highs on Tuesday. So only minor tweaks made. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Period begins with upper ridge crossing in the wake of an upper level low pulling away from the New ENgland coast. This spells dry weather with not much cloud Tuesday night into Wednesday. Once the ridge axis passes Wednesday, weak upper level disturbances in the west to southwest flow in its wake, and increasing warmth moisture in low level south to southwest flow, will lead to an increase in cloudiness, and the shower thunderstorm possibility from the west, by late in the day on Wednesday. The it appears the crescendo of this will be a pair of warm fronts and trough axies that cross late Wednesday night into Thursday. This should give rise to the greatest precipitation coverage of the period Thursday morning, not a diurnally favored time for thunderstorms. In the wake of these systems, it appears deep layer wind shear will be weak but CAPE could exceed a KJ/KG into the middle Ohio valley by late Thursday to support scattered thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish Thursday night with loss of heating, and weak upper level ridging rebuilding into the area. Raised highs a little per latest guidance while lows appeared to be largely in line. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather, especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday given the breaking down of the ridge. The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the coastal Carolinas. Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and storms with MVFR/Isold IFR conditions have developed over the northern West Virginia mountains...with the coverage expected to develop southward along the mountain counties. Have VCTS/CB at BKW/CKB into the evening hours with MVFR conditions in TSRA indicated at EKN. After 00 UTC...expect storm chances will wane with vfr conditions expected at most locations. Valley fog is once again expected tonight with conditions to deteriorate rapidly after 04Z with IFR/LIFR in many valley locations...especially across West Virginia. Expect fog and low clouds will dissipate shortly after 12 UTC...with vfr conditions expected over the entire region by 16 UTC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in prevailing TSRA. Fog timing tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR in river valley fog possible Wednesday morning...in showers/storms late Wednesday into Thursday morning and widespread fog Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JSH

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