Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191034 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 600 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT. WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO VEER TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FORMING THROUGH MIXING FIRST THING THIS MORNING. IT COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. WITH THE FLOW VEERING A BIT MORE SRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN JUST E OF BKW. DENSE VALLEY FOG ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING /CRW AND EKN IN PARTICULAR/...SHOULD THIN OUT BY 13Z. A NE PUFF PREVENTED MUCH FOG FROM FORMING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE PATCHY STRATOCU PREVENTED DENSE FOG AT CKB AND DELAYED ITS ONSET AT EKN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z TODAY. VFR WILL FOLLOW WITH AFTERNOON CU AOA 4 KFT. VALLEY FOG / MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A S TO SE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TODAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CIGS IN SRN WV MOUNTAINS WITH THE DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW THIS MORNING MAY VARY. VSBYS IN FOG / MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/19/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L M H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM

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