Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231758 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1258 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system passes overhead this afternoon and to the east tonight. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Monday... Main concern is prolonged rainfall causing isolated flooding issues as a system moves up the East Coast. Radar showing a lot of bright banding, so you cannot trust any radar-derived precipitation. Most rainfall gage amounts thusfar have been under an inch and a half in 6 hours. Even this is causing a few creeks to rise out of their banks, but there have been very few reports of issues. Rain should continue this afternoon before decreasing tonight as the system moves north. Cold air will pool in and turn the rain to snow in the mountains and even right now Snowshoe is experiencing snow. Dry slot is beginning to nudge into the WV mountains so do not expect much in the way of snowfall amounts in our counties. An additional inch or so possible. Have an SPS out for rainfall in the south of WV - may need a few more of these as wave lifts north and training occurs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Tuesday will see the shower activity wind down fairly quickly from west to east as the strong low pressure system moves away. Dynamic cooling will also wane as the system moves away, so that lingering high elevation snow showers in the northern mountains will change to rain showers before ending. Little additional snow accumulation expected there. High pressure will return Tuesday night with dry weather and near seasonable low temperatures. The pattern will change beginning Wednesday as northwesterly flow aloft drives a cold front southeastward into our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A good warmup again into the 60s Wednesday ahead of this cold front. Scattered rain showers will spread southeast across most of the area Wednesday night behind the cold front, with rain showers changing to snow showers in the northern mountains, but with little accumulation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 AM Monday... For this period, established northwest flow aloft will bring a series of upper disturbances and cold fronts, with progressively colder air invading the area. These will bring scattered showers for the later half of the week and into the weekend, but with no storm systems expected, precip amounts will generally be on the light side. Temperatures will cool to at or slightly below normal by Friday. The scattered low elevation rain showers, and high elevation snow showers, on Thursday will change to mostly all snow showers Thursday night and continue into the weekend. In general, little snow accumulation is expected in the low lands, while some snow accumulations in the mountains are likely. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Monday... System slides through the area today bringing widespread MVFR conditions with intermittent IFR and/or VFR. Trended TAFs downward as system passes but improve conditions as it moves off to the north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations likely to fluctuate in rain and low ceilings. Amendments likely. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L M L L L M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L H L M L M M H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M M M M M L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR weather is expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

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