Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280730 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ADJUSTED DOWN POPS PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. ONE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HIT BKW BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 07-09Z. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE. KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE IT HAS RAINED. PREV DISCN... SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY 12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY. CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU TUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30/DTC AVIATION...ARJ

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