Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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831 FXUS61 KRLX 211956 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through the end of the week. Cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1255 PM Tuesday... Winds will be gusty at times into this evening out ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. A weak northern stream short wave and associated surface cold front pushes through the area late tonight. Not a whole lot of moisture with the front, but we will see an in clouds and mostly northern areas will have a chance for a shower. Behind the front it is likely that we will see a brief transition to upslope snow showers in the mountains. Very little if any accumulation is expected through noon tomorrow as high pressure moves in fairly quickly behind the front and cuts things off. Much cooler tomorrow as high temperatures will run almost 20 degrees cooler than they were today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday... Not much has changed in this period over the last 12 hours. As cooler and drier air push into the area from the west any remaining clouds will dissipate. Thursday and Friday will be cooler than normal with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday... Went with a blend of models for this period as another cold front approaches overnight Friday. Rain and snow showers are expected, especially in the northern portions of our area. Light snow accumulations are expected in the mountains.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions through today and then MVFR ceilings will be possible overnight as a cold front pushes through. This front will bring a chance for rain and snow showers across the north and mountains, with only brief restrictions possible due to the lack of moisture with the front. High pressure builds back into the area tomorrow and conditions should improve again late in the TAF period. Gusty winds everywhere will persist into this evening and then only stronger gusts in the higher elevations after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could vary late today and tonight. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/AB NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...MPK

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