Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 101105 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 605 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Remaining cold today. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Saturday... Still managing to squeeze out some snow flakes, so added some flurries into this morning. Otherwise no changes needed. As of 1235 AM Saturday... Still some flurries lingering...mainly along and east of I-79. But clouds are beginning to break up west of the Ohio River. Blended WRFNMM into previous POPs, with little resulting change. Snow showers and flurries will gradually taper off through this morning. Temperatures today will struggle to get above freezing for most, but there should be some sunshine across the southern half of the forecast area to help ease the chill some. Cirrus begins moving in late today into tonight ahead of a warm front. Have a tight POP gradient, with precip just skimming the far north late tonight, pretty much just northern most tier of counties. Previous 12Z ECMWF was a bit more aggressive bringing precip south...however newer 00Z ECMWF, along with the NAM and GFS barely clip the northern CWA. 850mb temps still well below zero, so precip should be in the form of snow with some minor accumulations possible by sunrise Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Models are in stunning agreement with timing and intensity of Sunday night into Monday precip, so confidence is rather high at this point that there shouldn`t be too much snow in our CWA. All said and done less than an inch and most of that in the north while the southern half of our CWA may escape the snow altogether. Instead, rain will be the predominant weather maker as this system passes. I will throw the caveat that a slight nudge colder could change the forecast to more of a snow event, but at this time that seems highly unlikely. Even the mountains escape most of the snow though lingering cold air may cause a bit of a freezing rain threat. After the Sun night/Mon system passes, high pressure builds for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 PM Friday... There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be ushered in by a wave on the front. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 600 AM Saturday... Still have some lingering MVFR stratus and flurries across much of the forecast area. Expect these to both come to an end through this morning. Cirrus should begin streaming in late today and tonight. Wind will generally be light, with some variability as a warm front sets up across or just north of CWA late tonight. Looks like best chance of snow remains north of PKB-CKB-EKN line early Sunday morning, but did include some light VFR snow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary into this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/10/16 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M H H M M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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