Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181924 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek brings showers and thunderstorms. Front becomes nearly stationary through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM Sunday... Quick update for Sky Grids to start clearing earlier through this afternoon. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 400 AM Sunday... Expired winter weather advisory across higher terrain. As of 205 AM Sunday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Looking like current winter weather advisory will be on track to expire at 09Z as planned, with precipitation appearing to be rather light/spotty in nature. Otherwise, gusty winds across the area this evening, will gradually become light throughout the day as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west, along with a gradual clearing trend. Temperatures under abundant sunshine should allow for a nice warm up, with temperatures expected to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the area. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. Expecting either a slight increase in temperatures overnight, or at least a steadying out of temps. Precipitation overnight is looking to be quick hitting, and light in nature, so not expecting any additional water issues from it at this time. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area. Have kept a mainly rain forecast at this point. Flooding along the Ohio River is expected to continue through at least Monday or Tuesday, depending on location. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM Sunday... Warm air advection behind a warm front for Tuesday. This will send our temperatures soaring into the 80s across much of the region. Several record high temperatures could possibly be broken. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and shower/thunderstorms will be possible. Best chance looks to be in the Ohio Valley, where any additional rainfall will be problematic, especially of the convective nature. Will have to watch for the how far east the boundary makes it on Wednesday. Still some disagreement among the models on when the heaviest rainfall will enter the region. One thing of note, is the GEFS is indicating highly anomalous PWATs of 3 to 4 standard deviations by Wednesday afternoon in the Ohio Valley. With the available moisture in place, any convection could lead to flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Confidence is starting to grow in the long term for a potential high impactful rainfall event. As mentioned in the short term discussion, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon or evening. This front will not make it very far and guidance eventually has it stalling out in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. Deep moist SW flow will pump continuous moisture into the area. Still too early to exactly say where the highest rainfall axis will be, but models are starting to hone in on the Ohio Valley. Potential exists for possibly as much as 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, which would cause major flooding issues across the area. Although the Ohio River is forecast to come out of flood stage over the next couple days, it is possible we will be looking at a similar or worse situation by this time next weekend if this pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1247 PM Sunday... MVFR ceilings at CRW, HTS and and PKB will become VFR as clearing takes place due to a high pressure overhead early this afternoon. Easterly light winds early this afternoon will turn southeast tonight. On Monday, the next system approaches increasing clouds and chances of rain showers along with MVFR conditions to the southernmost sites, then spreading north to affect rest of sites. Models show different solutions on pcpn, some of them, splitting east and west leaving most of our area rain free Monday. However, models are notorious for not handling warm front correctly. Confidence runs low for any IFR conditions due to pcpn. A new but slow cold front will reach the OH River Wednesday and Wednesday night. IFR conditions expected under periods of rain showers and a slight possibility for thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. Medium with system Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...MPK/AB LONG TERM...MPK/AB AVIATION...ARJ

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