Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160215 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1015 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1010 PM Tuesday... Bumped up temperatures tonight based on dewpoints still hovering around 70F. Upper 60s in the lowlands a better bet than the mid 60s from the previous forecast. As of 140 PM Tuesday... Just some very isolated showers through this afternoon across the Southern Forecast Area and along the mountains. High pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry through Wednesday. However, moist soils from the recent rainfall, combined with clearing skies and light winds will likely make for thick valley fog overnight. Locally dense fog could make for a tough commute through the early morning hours, but any fog will burn off by the middle of tomorrow morning. Tomorrow should be partly clouds with near average high temperatures for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... SFC stationary frontal boundary remains over the area oriented west to east Wednesday night. This boundary will serve as a focus for convection mainly during the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday and Friday as southwesterly flow pump moisture and warm advection. Models suggest pwats values exceeding 2 inches. Any passing upper level shortwave will be enough to act on the sfc boundary for showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Friday night, an approaching cold front will bring better chances for showers or storms into Saturday. The actual FROPA crosses Friday into Saturday morning enhancing strong showers, some wth heavy shower or storms. Broad high pressure will dominate over the Great Lakes region, OH Valley and portions of the Mid Atlantic states. Use a blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Tuesday... Should get enough clearing aside from some passing high clouds to get stout river valley fog going tonight after 03Z. LIFR expected at all terminals, including BKW tonight with strong signals in the LAMP threshold guidance, high res ARW, NAM, and SREF. Fog could take some time to lift to MVFR/VFR, after 13Z or so. VFR once fog dissolves. Surface winds less than 7kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog overnight may vary. Radiation fog at BKW in forecast is somewhat unusual and may not materialize. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L M L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week Thursday. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning this week depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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