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000
FXUS61 KRLX 152323
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
723 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled
pattern returns to end the week with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 705 PM Tuesday...

No major changes to the forecast this evening.

As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Just some very isolated showers through this afternoon across
the Southern Forecast Area and along the mountains. High
pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry
through Wednesday. However, moist soils from the recent
rainfall, combined with clearing skies and light winds will
likely make for thick valley fog overnight. Locally dense fog
could make for a tough commute through the early morning hours,
but any fog will burn off by the middle of tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow should be partly clouds with near average high
temperatures for this time of year.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

SFC stationary frontal boundary remains over the area oriented
west to east Wednesday night. This boundary will serve as a
focus for convection mainly during the afternoon hours. Showers
and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday and Friday as
southwesterly flow pump moisture and warm advection. Models
suggest pwats values exceeding 2 inches. Any passing upper
level shortwave will be enough to act on the sfc boundary for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Friday night, an approaching cold front will bring better
chances for showers or storms into Saturday. The actual FROPA
crosses Friday into Saturday morning enhancing strong showers,
some wth heavy shower or storms.

Broad high pressure will dominate over the Great Lakes region,
OH Valley and portions of the Mid Atlantic states. Use a blend
of models for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Tuesday...

Should get enough clearing aside from some passing high clouds
to get stout river valley fog going tonight after 03Z. LIFR
expected at all terminals, including BKW tonight with strong
signals in the LAMP threshold guidance, high res ARW, NAM, and
SREF. Fog could take some time to lift to MVFR/VFR, after 13Z or
so.

VFR once fog dissolves. Surface winds less than 7kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog overnight may
vary. Radiation fog at BKW in forecast is somewhat unusual and
may not materialize.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week
Thursday. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning this
week depending on clouds.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26