-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AS OF 06Z HAS CROSSED CRW AND EKN AND SAGGING SE.
NARROW BAND OF HIGH REFLECTIVITIES AS WELL AS WSR-88D VELOCITY
IMAGE DEPICTS FRONT VERY NICELY ON ITS TREK. NOT LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MORE OF A SLOW DECLINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE 60S ARE GONE.

STILL LOOKING AT SE OH FOR FIRST CONCERN FOR WATER ISSUES IN
CREEKS AND STREAMS THRU MORNING. THIS CONCERN EXPANDS INTO
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING
ON A MOIST FETCH SLOPED BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT AMID A STOUT
UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS. WORRIED ABOUT SNOWPACK RELEASE IN THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A STIFF WIND THRU
MUCH OF TUESDAY.

TREND IN THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM IS FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE
SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND CONFINE THEM MORE ACROSS SE
WV AS THE NEXT WAVE THROWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLD
SECTOR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
LOWLANDS BUT STILL NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
GIVEN HEAVY RAIN PRECEDING IT. THERE IS ALSO A FZRA CONCERN IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND IN PARTICULAR OUR SW VA COUNTIES WHERE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLY BY 12Z THURSDAY.

AS FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE AREA...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OH IN THE FORM OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO
SNOW. THIS THINKING PROGRESSES SE INTO THE EVENING HRS WITH NE KY
AND WV LOWLANDS TRANSITIONING IN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY
TO HANG ON ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV...MEANING MORE IN THE WAY OF
SLEET AND FZRA.

CONCERNING RAIN TOTALS...LIQUID QPF LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
HAS BEEN EXPECTED. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER WITH LOLLIPOPS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THAT
WILL STILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL BE EXPANDING WINTER STORM WARNING TO COVER
REMAINDER OF THE N WV LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS. STILL DEBATING ON
HOW TO HANDLE THE COAL FIELDS INTO SE WV AND SW VA GIVEN MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET AND ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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16Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL FALL OVER OUR AREA...WHICH IS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT LAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN WILL TRANSITION INTO A
MIX AND THEN SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR PREVAILING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>032-035>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ033-034.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083-084.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV/30