-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
WORKING ON THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE. NO CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
17Z VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DEPARTING THE EAST SLOPES OF POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE TO BE GONE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY WITH CURRENT
READINGS GENERALLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH
OUR AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PULL
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS
TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. NEAR-CALM WINDS EARLY ON WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB
IS NOTED WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPS UP JUST A BIT WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT SUSPECT MOST WV LOWLANDS PROBABLY ABLE TO STAY UNDER AND
COOL NICELY. PREV FCST MINS GENERALLY LOWER AND MID 30S LOWLANDS
STILL ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.  DID NUDGE EKN DOWN A
BIT.

SATURDAY FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM SW TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS SE OHIO BY 18Z. MOST OF THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY A BIT LONGER WITH THE MORE DENSE
CLOUD COVER NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NUDGED MAX TEMPS
UPWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON LATEST PROGGED 850MB/925MB
TEMPS AND MOS GUIDE. HAVE MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...AND A FEW 60-DEGREE READINGS WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION FROM ROUGHLY THE I-64 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE
COALFIELDS. HUNG ON TO LOWER 50S FURTHER NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
OFF-SFC TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVING QUICKER. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AND LOW CHANCE POPS BY AND AFTER 21Z SAT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP COMING IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS SLOWER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FASTER. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF MODELS...BUT LEAVE
A TRAILING SLIGHT CHANCE SINCE THIS PERIOD IS GETTING INTO THE SHORT
TERM WHERE THE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM CAN CAUSE IT TO BEAT THE
OTHER MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS SHOWS A BOUNDARY SLIDING INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM
ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN
CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT TUE-WED. THE GFS SHOWS A
POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS
INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LARGE SYSTEM...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF...GENERATING
MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC.  THIS MAY HAVE TO DUE WITH
ITS BRINGING IN SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE 4 CORNERS AREA
TUE NT.

THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND
FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA
LATE WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION.  THE GEM IS FLATTER
STILL...WHILE THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N AND W TRACK OF THE
ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE AREA TUE NT INTO
WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED EVENING.  THE COLDER
AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED NT...AS THE SFC SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW...MAY PROLONG THE PRECIPITATION A
BIT...INTO THU MORNING.  THE SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER ON MOST MODELS
COMPARED WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SEVERAL RUNS.

DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER
CASE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING FRI.  THIS HIGH LOOKS TO BE AN
ODD BRIDGING OF HIGHS OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC ORIGIN.

PERIOD STARTS MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AND ON INTO WED
WHEN THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA.  WITH THE DIFFERING SOLNS...USED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR 6 HOURLY TEMPERATURES LATE TUE NT
INTO WED NT.  THIS PUTS HIGHS WED BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT
CLOSE TO WPC. STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO WPC
THROUGH FRI.  RAIN LIKELY WED FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WED NT
AND A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR MIST IN PKB TONIGHT MATERIALIZING AS ADVERTISED BY LAMP
GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP THAT THROUGH EARLY DAWN SATURDAY.

CEILING LOWER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND THE 21Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. EXPECTING CEILINGS IN THE 1.5-2.5KFT RANGE
WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND MINIMAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
WITH MVFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. BRIEF IFR IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 03/08/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30/26