Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 022002 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MORE STABLE AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AHEAD OF FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM WAS RACING EWD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS 18Z PASSED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH T E FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WAS WASHING OUT AS IT WAS CHARGING EWD THROUGH NRN OHIO...AND WILL DISSOLVE ALTOGETHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FEATURE STRUGGLES TO LOWER HGTS 20 M. SFC CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIVERGENCE...AS WELL AS SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE ORGANIZED NE-SW ORIENTED FEATURE OF EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TRANSITIONING TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO AN E-W ZONE WITHIN WHICH AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE FORMING. THE KILN SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED 1.99 IN PW. THOUGH THE STORMS WERE MORNING IN THE 30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...THIS SAME FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION TO A DEGREE. WITH THE MORE W-E ORIENTATION OF THE ZONE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...TRAINING IS A POSSIBILITY...WHICH WOULD THEN GIVE RISE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IF AND WHERE IT MATERIALIZES...AS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST CENTRAL GUIDANCE. 3-HR FFG VALUES OF JUST UNDER 2 IN WERE COMMON ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN WV. RAISED POPS ACROSS THE S FOR TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DRAGGING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED FURTHER AND STRETCHED FARTHER N. WED STARTS WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG THAT TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF...OTHERWISE A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS. USED A BLEND OF STRAIGHT GUIDANCE ON HIGHS WED FOR LITTLE CHANGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SE COMPONENT TO WHAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WE HAVE... WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. OTHERWISE MORE STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCLUDE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS. STILL KEPT DEW POINTS HIGHER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM OUR EXTENDED FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO. ANOTHER FRONT COMING INTO AHEAD ON DAY 4/SATURDAY AND TRYING TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN. AS USUAL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVIATE ON THEIR RUN TO RUN FRONTAL SPEED. THE ECMWF HAD A FASTER TREND TODAY THAN YESTERDAY ON DRYING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. ALL IN ALL...THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SLOW DRYING TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS 18Z PASSED...WHILE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE QUICKLY MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM...THE THREAT OF WHICH CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN...AND THEN TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF WED IN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CLOUDS. SFC FLOW WILL BE SW AND A BIT GUSTY THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 40 KTS FROM THE W TO NW. SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT AND WED WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MODERATE W THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT W TO NW OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION WED COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L M H M M L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H L L L M L L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.