Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311947 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 247 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM ADVECTION PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA. IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER CLOUDS BY PRE-DAWN AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL/KTB NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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