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197
FXUS61 KRLX 110452
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1252 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Smaller chances of storms today, otherwise daily chances for
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue as a
warm and moist airmass remains in place.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1240 AM Friday...

River valley fog and fog where rain occurred yesterday can be
expected this morning. Although warm, moist and humid air will
remain at the surface today, some drier air aloft will limit
afternoon and evening thunderstorm development compared to
previous days. The best chances to see precipitation will be in
the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1245 AM Friday...

The warm, moist and humid air will remain over the region this
weekend. This will provide mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front approaches from the northwest and
moves into the region on Sunday, increasing moisture over the
region. The front will stall over the area while a wave forms
along the front associated with an upper level trough. This wave
will cross the area Sunday night into Monday, allowing for some
storms outside the typical diurnal pattern. Drier air will move
in behind the wave Monday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1250 AM Friday...

A high pressure system will provide drier air for Tuesday. Even
so, can`t rule out some afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains.

As the high shifts eastward, a southerly wind flow will allow
moisture to gradually increase Wednesday and Thursday. This will
allow for an increasing chance afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1250 AM Friday...

River valley fog and fog where rain occurred yesterday can be
expected this morning. A cumulus deck will form during the day
with some showers and thunderstorms, but less than previous days
with the best chances in the mountains. River valley fog and fog
where rain occurs today can be expected again tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, expect medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        FRI 07/11/25
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    H    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the overnights.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY