-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 090920
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER MONDAY. STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
DROPPED THE POPS QUICKER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR RETURNS ON THE WANE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH WITH LOW STRATUS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ALREADY SEEING SOLID TEMPERATURE DROPS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE OHIO RIVER...WITH UNI CHECKING IN AT 35F AND
PKB AT 34F. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COOLER DAY...WHILE STILL ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO EVACUATE THIS MORNING...LEADING
TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO DROP MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
TONIGHT. TRIED TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A NOTCH
OR TWO IN THE CLOUD COVER...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SLOWLY MIGRATING
EASTWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTS ABOVE FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AHEAD
OF A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A LEAD
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH CUTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND PREVENTS
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE FROM FEEDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL OFFSET
THIS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A HALF INCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...CHOSE TO OMIT THUNDER AND GO WITH MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE QUITE MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL END THE PRECIP AS
SOME SNOW BEHIND THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS IS MARCH...A
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...AND THE GROUND WARMER...ONE MUST START QUITE
CONSERVATIVELY ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS LOOK IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EVIDENT IN
H5 HEIGHTS AND VORTICITY MAX...BRINGING GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
RIGHT AFTER...THE ECMWF SLOWED DOWN A BIT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
EXTRA FORCING ALONG THE OLD FRONT. THIS SETUP CALLS FOR A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT STILL UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG THE SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS LATER TROUGH...ALONG WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AS SUGGESTED BY
BOTH MODELS.

THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND...CAPABLE
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES UNDER SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SO...EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN BEFORE TURNING INTO
ALL SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME...EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND DOMINATE INTO LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ERODING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OHIO AS SEEN ON
INFRARED IMAGERY...AND CLEARING SHOULD BE ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z TODAY. THUS...WILL LOSE THE MVFR CEILINGS FAIRLY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LASTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
COLUMN DRYING.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TIMING COULD VARY SLIGHTLY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 03/09/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26