-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26