Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211824 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough keeps showers and clouds around into tonight. High pressure late Saturday into Sunday. Re-enforcing cold front Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Friday... Upper level trough centered right over CWA early this afternoon, with showers across the east drifting north, and rain across west drifting southeast. This trough is starting to become more negatively tilted, and we are seeing some development of the rain across SE Ohio due to this. Expect an area of moderate rain drifting westward across the CWA into tonight. Generally thinking around 0.5 inch of additional rain with this. 850mb temps starting to crash as cold air arrives. This should keep clouds and some precipitation around through much of the night across the eastern half of the CWA. With 850mb temps dropping below 0C overnight, expect highest elevations to see a gradual switch over to snow instead of rain. Moisture is becoming pretty limited by this time, but think the highest ridges could get a dusting of snow accumulation...mainly on grass and elevated surfaces. The 850mb temperature trough maxes out from 12Z-15Z, after which any lingering precipitation in the mountains should end with just an isolated shower possible Saturday. Clouds will gradually break up from west to east through the day as surface high pressure begins nosing in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM Friday... Broad upper ridge and surface high pressure dominate the region this period with dry weather. Temperatures will be on the rebound Sunday, after a chilly Saturday night, as the surface high pressure center slides east and allows southwesterly winds and abundant sunshine to boost temperatures well into the 60s Sunday. Sunday night will also see a warmup with southerly flow persisting. There may be a band of clouds Saturday night and early Sunday to herald in the warmer air.
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As of 200 PM Friday... The upper ridge continues to dominate Monday into Wednesday with dry weather. There will be just enough northwest flow aloft to drive a moisture starved cool front southeastward across our area early Monday. However, cooling behind the front will be modest at best, with the net effect of bringing temperatures to near normal readings for this time of year for early next week. Thereafter, guidance is in pretty good agreement in bringing a frontal system into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday with rain chances increasing.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM Friday... Upper level trough bringing rain and clouds to the forecast area into tonight. Much of the IFR low stratus has broken up, but do anticipate it filling back in later today into tonight as colder air filters in. So have a period of IFR everywhere but HTS where things are beginning to wind down. Also tried to time out some IFR visibility in rain based on radar trends. Precipitation will gradually move out from west to east overnight, with MVFR ceilings lingering into Saturday morning in northwest flow. Expect some flow to remain at the surface, so did not include IFR in fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers. Ceilings may bounce in and out of IFR into tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday night. IFR in valley fog possible Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.