-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171839
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front tonight into Friday. Generally drier afterwards
until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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As of 225 PM Thursday...

QLCS across Eastern Ohio associated with a prefrontal trough will
push into the Ohio Valley later this evening. Well out ahead of
this line we are currently seeing isolated to scattered showers
and storms across our area. Despite moist and unstable low
level profiles, drier air in the mid level has kept these cells
in check, and the severe threat with these cells is extremely
low, however they do contain brief downpours. Any severe storm
threat will be associated with the main convective line later
this evening, but this threat is still quite low, with our
Northern Ohio Counties most at risk. Here, 0-6km bulk shear will
be strongest at about 30 to 35 knots and although instability
will drops off by the time it arrives later this evening, there
may still be enough there to produce borderline severe storms.
Also, with the high PWATs, torrential rainfall will be possible
into the overnight hours.

The actual cold front will not pass the area until later
tomorrow afternoon and some weak showers and storms are
possible. Behind the front drier air moves in with high
pressure.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

What remains of a cold front crosses the CWA Friday for scattered
showers.

A weak upper level wave brushes the northern CWA over the
weekend though high pressure will likely keep the rest of the
area rain free and warm.

High pressure continues Sunday for dry weather area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

High pressure continues Monday for dry weather area wide. Moisture
will increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next
approaching cold front. The cold front crosses Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Thursday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon. There may be brief lull before another line of
showers and storms pushing through late this evening through
tonight with a passing prefrontal trough. Brief IFR will be
possible just about anywhere if a shower or storm moves
overhead. For now have only included IFR at CRW and PKB based on
current storms on Radar moving towards the airfields. Behind
this trough there may be some low stratus early Friday morning.
Conditions should improve to VFR again later tomorrow as the
cold front passes from east to west and dries things out behind
it.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Will likely need amendments for IFR in
storms today through tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK