Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291624 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1224 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large upper level low will bring unsettled wet weather through Friday. It pulls away in time to bring dry weather for much of the weekend. High pressure continues the dry weather early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1050 am update...Added a higher chance of thunderstorms to the forecast through today. With cold temps aloft and low freezing levels any storms that reach about 15K feet should start producing lightning. Also, I did not put any hail in the forecast at this time, but some isolated stronger storms could produce small hail. 850 am update...Went ahead and boosted PoP across the CWA today with the upper low producing widespread showers. Current thinking is that Flash Flood threat is fairly low today...however we will have to monitor for training today with unidirectional flow and diffluence aloft . It is still possible that a flash flood watch may be needed at some point...but will hold off at this time due to dry conditions and uncertainty on where the heaviest precipitation will set up. Previous Discussion... As of 420 AM Thursday... Unsettled and cool weather for the near term surface cold/occluded front pushes east through the region today...and as upper low...which will slowly dig south into Kentucky today...and associated vort to trigger showers and thunderstorms...particularly this afternoon. There is the possibility that a few storms could be on the strong side...particularly across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA. Any breaks that are able to develop in the cloud cover today will help to destabilize the environment...and this combined with strong shear...could lead to organized/strong convection...with damaging winds a primary threat. Small hail can also not be ruled completely out...or the possibility of an isolated tornado. SPC has placed the majority of the CWA in a marginal risk...with southern/eastern WV zones in a 2 percent for tornadoes. Will highlight in the HWO. In addition to the severe threat...there will be heavy downpours with any storms...but with the overall dry conditions and storm movement...not concerned about issuing any water headlines. Based on water vapor imagery...and model consensus...heavier axis of moisture/precip should stay just to the east of the CWA...where stronger low level winds will aid in higher moisture transport off the Atlantic. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1222 PM Thursday... Large upper level low over the lower Ohio Valley will move to northern Indiana by Saturday afternoon and then to the eastern Great Lakes late. Showers will be most numerous across northeast portions of the area early Friday night. However, coverage should quickly decrease by early Saturday with much of the area getting into the dry slot. There could still be a few showers in the northern mountains as well as portions of northeast Ohio early Saturday night. However, expect Sunday should be dry across the area. Used a blend of guidance for lows and highs.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1205 PM Thursday... Period will begin with pesky upper low moving away from the region. Upper level ridge will build in as an upper level trof approaches from the west. Models differ on the track of Tropical Storm Matthew. GFS has the system moving along the North Carolina coast while the ECMWF has it well to the south. Current thinking is to follow WPC timing which is close to that of the GFS. End result should be dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday before the flow around Matthew begins to push some moisture westward into the mountains. This increasing moisture could result in some afternoon/evening showers and storms in the northern mountains Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 AM Thursday... Upper level low will continue to rotate across the area during the period...with areas of showers...and thunderstorms...particularly after 16-18Z. Expect brief gusty winds...heavy downpours...and MVFR/IFR conditions at times...particularly in vicinity of showers/storms. Bulk of convection will die off after 00Z...however...showers with restrictions...and areas of MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will continue to linger for the remainder of the period. Isold LIFR possible in low cigs and fog after 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of convection this afternoon...and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast. Isold LIFR in question tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H M L L L M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Areas of ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK SHORT TERM...JSH/30 LONG TERM...JSH/30 AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.