-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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17Z VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DEPARTING THE EAST SLOPES OF POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE TO BE GONE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY WITH CURRENT
READINGS GENERALLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH
OUR AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PULL
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS
TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. NEAR-CALM WINDS EARLY ON WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB
IS NOTED WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPS UP JUST A BIT WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT SUSPECT MOST WV LOWLANDS PROBABLY ABLE TO STAY UNDER AND
COOL NICELY. PREV FCST MINS GENERALLY LOWER AND MID 30S LOWLANDS
STILL ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.  DID NUDGE EKN DOWN A
BIT.

SATURDAY FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM SW TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS SE OHIO BY 18Z. MOST OF THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY A BIT LONGER WITH THE MORE DENSE
CLOUD COVER NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NUDGED MAX TEMPS
UPWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON LATEST PROGGED 850MB/925MB
TEMPS AND MOS GUIDE. HAVE MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...AND A FEW 60-DEGREE READINGS WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION FROM ROUGHLY THE I-64 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE
COALFIELDS. HUNG ON TO LOWER 50S FURTHER NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
OFF-SFC TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVING QUICKER. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AND LOW CHANCE POPS BY AND AFTER 21Z SAT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP COMING IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BEING DOMINANT. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN AMPLIFYING THIS FEATURE AND SLOWING
IT SOMEWHAT...SO THE FASTER AND FLATTER GFS WAS USED FOR DETAILS.
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
ENDING QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY. ONLY A BRIEF AND MINOR COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A
WARMING TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS A CONTINUED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
EURO AND NOAM MODELS. EACH IS CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES IN THE THE
EURO SHOWS A MAJOR STORM DUE TO PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE NOAM MODELS SHOW LITTLE PHASING WITH A WEAKER AND
FASTER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WILL TEND TO LEAN WITH
WPC AND THE EURO CAMP...BUT PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM TIL MAYBE THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT...AND FINALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO PASS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

LAST OF THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING/S SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST NOT
DEPARTING THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE POCAHONTAS/RANDOPLH COUNTY AREAS. EXPECT THESE TO BE
GONE BY 20Z-21Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SAT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/50/26
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TRM/JMV
AVIATION...50