Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201807 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINS IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSES THURSDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STARTING LITTLE OR NO PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z. AN MCS CROSSING SOUTHERN IN AT 18Z...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...THIS SYSTEM DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND DIE BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND PORTIONS OF WV OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...INTRODUCE SMALL POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 06Z...SPREADING EAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...AND ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WHICH SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPCOMING DYING MCS. A WARM FRONT DISSECTS OUR CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THIS TIME AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UNDER PLAYED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DYING MCS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE NAM AND CMC MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER H5 VORTMAX BUT STRONGER WAVE ON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. .
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED DURING THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO PUSH 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES DURING THE PERIOD IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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RADAR IMAGES SHOW A PCPN FREE AREA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AT 18Z. A DYING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN...TRACKING SOUTHEAST. REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REACH HTS AROUND 06Z TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST SITES DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TO MID 60S...POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS ON THURSDAY AND ALONG STRATIFORM RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ONSET AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION AGAIN THU NT AND FRI NT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ

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