Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011857 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 257 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR FROM N KY INTO W WV. QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY THUS FAR FOR AREAS FROM HTS TO CRW TO BKW. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THE STRATUS WILL CONT TO MIX OUT INTO BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA S OF I64 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS SW VA...AND THE S COAL FIELDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPPING A HAIR FURTHER S AND BECOMING MORE ENGERGIZED WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION. DID ALLOW FOR THUNDER ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN LACK OF GOOD HEATING DESPITE THE THETA E ADVECTION. MUCH OF THE ACTION WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST ISOLATED SHRA THREAT ACROSS S WV AND SW VA. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE FG AND LOW STRATUS WILL FORM. BL WINDS LOOK TO RELAX QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THINK BEST FG POTENTIAL IS SE OH AND N WV. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS REFORMS ACROSS S ZONES AND WITH A LIGHT NE LLVL WIND...BKW SHOULD FG DOWN AS WELL. FOR THURSDAY...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE AGAIN FOR THE STRATUS TO MIX OUT S OF THE BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW AND LOW INVERSION. WILL WATCH FOR DECAYING MCS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FEELING IS MUCH OF THE DAY IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH EXTENT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS S ZONES IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WITH CURRENT THINKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL AND CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TO EARLY FOR ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES RIGHT NOW AND KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRY US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE BEGININNING OF THE WORK WEAK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... MVFR LOW STRATUS SCT TO BKN AT TIMES REMAINDER OF AFTN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MAY MAKE A RUN OUT OF KY INTO SW VA AND S WV...AFFECTING KBKW. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHO FOGS AND WHO GETS THE STRATUS. CURRENT THINKING IS N TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR OR WORSE FG WITH S TERMINALS LOW STRATUS. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD BRING KBKW DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO A PERIOD OF MORNING HZ...WITH SCT TO BKN MVFR/LOW END VFR CU AFTER 16Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND OR STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...30

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