Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231701 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1201 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary front meanders about the area through the weekend, as surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall possible into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM Friday... Extended Flood Watch in time from 12Z to 21Z Sunday. Also got the gusty winds with the thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening in the package. As of 1025 AM Friday... Adjusted PoPs to allow rainfall to get farther east, to about the Ohio River, with the wave existing this morning up north, and the second wave this afternoon into this evening. Still allow for the chance for thunder near and on the warm side of the front this afternoon into this evening. Thin CAPE but adequate shear, freezing level around 11 kft, and a dry mid level could lead to gusty winds, and perhaps small hail. Will add the gusty winds to the grids and forecast for this afternoon. Bulk shear will be higher tonight and Saturday. As of 420 AM Friday... Models show a front pushing back northward today as a surface wave brings more rain to northern portions of the forecast area. While most of the rain will be north of the front, some instability develops this afternoon south of the front, so can not rule out some showers or even thunderstorms there as well. Will continue the flood watch as ground is saturated and several streams and rivers remain in flood in southeastern Ohio. Behind the wave this evening, the cold front pushes back southward into the region before again stalling. Another wave is set to move along the front late Friday night into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 415 AM Friday... We continue to highlight the flooding potential over the weekend. An impressive low level moisture feed into the Ohio Valley will interact with a quasi stationary baroclinic zone to produce rounds of downpours and some storms. It appears there will be two significant rounds of heavy rain. One mid to late morning Saturday into early afternoon across much of the area. The other slated for Saturday night, with the focus across southeast Ohio, as the frontal boundary pivots northwestward as a warm front. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage during the day Sunday, with a continued threat for showers. Qpf amounts around 2 inches are forecast across southeast Ohio, tailing off as once progresses east of the Ohio River. This will result in a renewed threat for flooding across southeast Ohio, with main stem rivers in the zone for significant flooding come Sunday night and Monday. This is especially true for the Ohio River, where major flooding is forecast along many of our official forecast points. The current forecast levels compare closely to Ivan in 2004, which produced significant flooding along the Mighty Ohio. Temperatures will remain very warm over the weekend, with a slight cool down behind the front for Monday. Some showers may linger across the mountains on Monday before the upper trof finally sweeps everything east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 435 AM Friday... A brief lull in the active weather early next week before another wet system crosses mid to late week. It will remain very mild for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 515 AM Friday... A frontal boundary across the area will gradually push northward this morning. LIFR conditions can be expected north and west of the front, with generally VFR or MVFR conditions south and east of the front. A wave will move along the front today providing rain to Ohio and northern WV. The front will push back southward behind this wave this evening, again stalling over the area. Once again Friday night, expect LIFR north and west of the front with generally VFR or MVFR south and east of the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing of the frontal boundary moving could vary, meaning LIFR conditions could last longer or lift quicker than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H M H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible at times in showers into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.