Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290717 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 317 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FOR BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE AT H5 EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND JUICIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA...TO INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ABOUT 40 KFT. SO EXPECT TALL THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWEST SPREADING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST OH INTO MONDAY. THE WAVE WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SEEMS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/29/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L M M M H H M H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW NEAR TERM...MZ/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

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