Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222004 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 404 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this weekend with risk for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Fronts cross late Sunday and again late Monday. High pressure midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 354 PM Saturday... A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of southeast OH and portions of the northern half of WV until 10 PM. As of 155 PM Saturday... MCS moved across northern zones this morning, producing generally an inch or so of precipitation. Area in the warm sector of a low pressure system moving across Great Lakes region, with sct showers and thunderstorms popping up area wide in the warm, humid, unstable conditions. With the lower FFG/wetter soils across the north, and the potential for additional MCS overnight, went ahead an hoisted a flash flood watch for the area through Sunday morning. This may need to be expanded in area or even in time as we progress, but for now, just decided to issue for the wetter areas/greatest threat region. In addition to flooding issues, the potential for severe exists through much of the night, with strong shear on the order of 40+ kts. SPC has issued a slight risk for most of the CWA through 12Z Sunday, with a slight risk area wide on Sunday for an additional severe thunderstorm threat, as the cold front approaches the area from the north. Frontal boundary should be entering SE Ohio zones towards the end of the period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday... Models in good agreement in a significant short wave amplifying the northern stream over the eastern U.S., which finally drives the very deep and moist unstable air with the cold front eastward across most the area Sunday night. Even though the front gets hung up in the mountains by Monday morning, the really deep moisture and convection should continue eastward with the main departing short wave. By Monday morning, we expect most of the area to be dry, except across the far southern coal fields and southern mountains where some lingering convection may continue. Thereafter, models have another short wave and cold front dropping southeast through the Great Lakes and across the area Monday afternoon and night. Even though moisture will be more limited with this feature, there will be enough moisture to combine with diurnal heating to fire up a band of convection with the front. Things will finally die down Monday night, with most areas dry by Tuesday morning. However, again, this new front will struggle to exit the far south and have left a few showers possible there Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 PM Saturday... High pressure builds in briefly Tuesday and Tuesday night with slightly cooler but drier air. However, models agree in another short wave and front diving southeast across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, with enough dynamics, moisture and instability to fire yet another band of convection ahead of the front. But it will be a bit cooler and less on the summer heat and humidity. But despite this latest short wave and front, the models quickly lift out the upper trough and return the front northward Thursday, which meanders across the area for the later part of the work week. Again, lots of moisture will be available to keep things very unsettled with the meandering front, although temperatures are progged to be tempered by the clouds and precip. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z Saturday through 18Z Sunday... As of 200 PM Saturday... Showers and thunderstorms, with heavy downpours, and strong damaging winds are possible during the TAF period. Expect MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms, along with strong gusty winds. Bulk of convection will generally decrease in coverage from north to south after 12-15Z, but local MVFR and IFR cigs will linger. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection could be less widespread than currently forecast. Conditions on Sunday may not improve as quickly as currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L M M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L M M L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Sunday in heavy showers and thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ007>011- 014>020-027>032-039-040-517>526. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005-006-013- 024-025. OH...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>086. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ/JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...SL

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