Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231740 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure will generally be in control into the weekend. Marginal moisture/instability may produce showers/storms...mainly during the afternoon/evening starting late Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers/storm have developed over the northern West Virginia mountains. Models suggest these storms will continue into evening hours...before dissipating before midnight. With high pressure in control...expect conditions will be quite favorable for dense valley fog to develop once again tonight... generally after 04 utc. The fog and any low clouds that form tonight should dissipate shortly after sunrise on Tuesday. GFS suggests there could be some showers and storms across the northern mountains again Tuesday afternoon...while NAM suggests dry conditions. Have decided to keep forecast dry for now. Temperature guidance is relatively close and is similar to previously forecasted lows for tonight and highs on Tuesday. So only minor tweaks made.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The transition to a warmer environment starts on Tuesday. Despite the weak wind flow and poor mixing...the strong May sunshine should counteract the lack of mixing to boost temperatures. In the weak wind flow...and before dew points increase...tried to stay on the low side of mos temperature guidance for Tuesday night minimum temperatures...especially in the mountain valleys. No surface front in sight. Moisture tries to increase and weak disturbance approaching from the west...denting the 500 mb ridge... will keep just the minimum chance pops Wednesday afternoon and night...as model sounding showing some limited instability. For example...00z gfs shows about 500 cape vcnty Hts late Wed...and about 1000 Thursday...but flow remains weak. Those weak 500 mb disturbance pass late Wednesday night into Thursday morning...so kept pops through the night for our western and northern counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S. Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be monitored closely. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Showers and storms with MVFR/Isold IFR conditions have developed over the northern West Virginia mountains...with the coverage expected to develop southward along the mountain counties. Have VCTS/CB at BKW/CKB into the evening hours with MVFR conditions in TSRA indicated at EKN. After 00 UTC...expect storm chances will wane with vfr conditions expected at most locations. Valley fog is once again expected tonight with conditions to deteriorate rapidly after 04Z with IFR/LIFR in many valley locations...especially across West Virginia. Expect fog and low clouds will dissipate shortly after 12 UTC...with vfr conditions expected over the entire region by 16 UTC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in prevailing TSRA. Fog timing tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR in river valley fog possible Wednesday morning...in showers/storms late Wednesday into Thursday morning and widespread fog Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JSH

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