Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 101040 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 540 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper trough moves away today. Next upper trough and cold front push east Monday night, with a stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 231 AM Sunday... Latest radar mosaic shows snow showers continue across portions of the area. Based on latest guidance, the snow showers should end across the lowland counties by sunrise and then across the mountains before noon. Current thinking is that a few inches of additional snow is still possible in the higher elevation with lesser amounts in the lowlands. Will continue Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations until 9 AM today. Clouds should break up from the west today allowing for sunshine, especially across portions of northeast Kentucky, northwest Virginia and the southern and central counties of West Virginia. However even with the sunshine, temperatures will remain below normal with readings in the 20s across the highest elevations and 30s across the remainder of the area. Another system will move across the state tonight. This system appears to be moisture starved and do not expect much in the way of precipitation. Models show widely suggest areas of precipitation across the northern mountain counties. Have maintained slight chance PoPS there to reflect this trend as well as matching up with the neighboring offices. Overnight temperatures should be a few degrees below normal. with some mid level moisture/cloud cover for the region, but no precipitation late Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Sunday... Start the short term period off with a decent day on Monday. Temperatures should warm back up to normal values with southerly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front will push through Monday night and into early Tuesday morning, bringing cold arctic air back into the region. May see some rain showers or a rain/snow mix out ahead of the front, but that will likely be short-lived as the cold air rushes in and changes any precip over snow. Should not see much in the way of snow accumulation with the initial frontal passage, but snow showers will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon as an upper trough swings overhead. This system will be similar to what we just saw this weekend, but forecast soundings are indicating a bit more of instability. By Tuesday afternoon, NAM Bufkit cross sections indicate a modest zone of omega intersecting a nearly saturated Dendritic Growth Zone. These early indicators suggest snow squalls will be possible across the region and a quick half inch to an inch of snow will be possible. Timing will be everything, as the Tuesday afternoon commute could be impacted, but confidence remains low on the exact timing. It`s possible that winter headlines will be needed for Tuesday through Tuesday night in the favorable NW flow upslope areas of the mountains. Along with the snow in the mountains, gusty winds combined with some of the coldest air we have seen yet this season will drop wind chills possibly lower than minus 20F at times. Will mention all this in the HWO for now. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Upper trough swings to our east on Wednesday, but some snow showers may still be on going early Wednesday morning. Although conditions will improve through the day, it will remain quite cold and highs will likely be well below normal. Forecast guidance diverges after the middle of the week, as GFS brings another deep upper trough through the area. However, the Euro has a bit more of a zonal pattern with only a quick moving clipper system pushing through on Thursday. Have went with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for days 5 through 7 for now. Any precip we do receive this time period will likely be all snow as the models at least agree that the cold air remains in place through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 540 AM Sunday... Latest radar analysis and surface observations continue to decrease in intensity and areal coverage. VFR/MVFR conditions prevailed in most locations. Spoke with CRW tower a few hours ago and they indicated that the visibility was 4 miles. However, they continue to carry 2SM -SN. Radar mosaic would suggest visibility is above 2SM. The snow should end across the lowland counties by 14Z and then across the mountain counties by 17Z. Expect MVFR clouds will quickly lift/dissipate with most lowland locations seeing VFR conditions by 18Z and across the entire region by 21Z. The VFR conditions should then prevail across the entire region through 12Z Monday. Gusty west to northwest surface winds will back to the southwest by this afternoon and become much lighter after 00Z Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and IFR may vary from forecast. Timing on improvement on ceilings today may vary. Gusty winds will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/10/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L H H H H L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H M H H H M L M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for WVZ520- 522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JSH

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