Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 062143 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 443 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... After system departs tonight, high pressure will build for Wednesday. A cold front crosses early Thursday. Much colder into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 PM Tuesday... Lingering showers still apparent on radar giving light rain. Temperatures at Snowshoe are hovering right at the freezing mark, so continued the Freezing Rain Advisory there, but upped the amounts to a 0.10" of additional accumulation expected this evening given the heavier band of rain moving through the area. Wide swath of clouds fills in behind the system for a damp night. Conditions improve for Wednesday with the sun making a return by the afternoon though temps will struggle to get to the mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Main feature in the short term will the arrival of modified arctic air. The models continue to waffle on the extent of development of a mid level wave Thursday, with all showing little to no development such that low pops currently may be able to be lowered even more. Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there in the lowlands. Elected to beef up the sky grid from what the Blender provided as well as lowering highs from the Blender. Think most if not all places will stay below freezing for highs. A gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but clouds should linger. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday... Increasingly milder air will filter into the area this weekend, but still will be rather chilly on Saturday with sunshine finally returning to the area. Milder air will work into the area in earnest Sunday and Monday ahead of the next system with showers and perhaps a mix at onset working in Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 PM Monday... Generally VFR though expect a trend towards IFR as many non-TAF sites are showing a 500-1000 ft cloud deck and models suggest a lowering of cigs overnight as high pressure builds. Kept vsbys relatively high. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated MVFR to IFR conditions may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H M H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H M L M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H M H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L H L L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night, mainly in the mountains, && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ523- 526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JW

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