Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271023 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 523 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT 2014. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RADAR IMAGES INDICATE LIGHT PCPN IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PCPN IS FALLING FROM AN UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOST OF IT NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PARTIAL CONTROL TODAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SOUTHWEST AT H850. THEREFORE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER MODEL CONSENSUS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY 09-12Z SUNDAY. WENT CLOSER TO ALL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... OVERALL...MODELS LOCKED INTO THE SHORT TERM PATTERN PRETTY WELL WHICH EQUATES TO MINIMAL CHANGES ACROSS THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST CHANGES ARE BUMPING UP THE POPS WITH ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE STORY IS THE SAME WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN...GOING STATIONARY WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG IT...AND ULTIMATELY HAVING DIFFICULTY EXITING THE AREA WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS NOTED LAST NIGHT...NO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH QPF TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR THE MOST PART. STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT POSSIBLE SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT EVENTUALLY TO MORE NORMAL DECEMBER VALUES...BUT STILL NOT TAPPING INTO ANY REALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR JUST YET. FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES BEING TO THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAKING THEM BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPARTS. BRING BACK IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE TROUGH AND WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK...SO DO START INCREASING POPS RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPS...AND THEN WENT JUST A TOUCH COOLER ON LOWS. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TOWARDS 09Z SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THESE SHOWERS. CODED MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z SUNDAY BECOMING IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME IFR WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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