Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290024 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 824 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... More upper level systems will keep unsettled weather over weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... All watches have been cancelled this evening. The last in the series of MCVs is weakening as it traverses thru the mountains. Rain rates have significantly decreased as convective elements have shifted into the piedmont of VA. In the wake of the departing MCV...expect dense fog to quickly develop this evening as partial clearing occurs. Upstream disturbance currently over the middle OH Valley is not expected to be a major player in our area tonight as the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over at this point. This system will however work thru the area tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon hours with sct shra/tsra developing by afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Even though the upper system exits by Friday morning...the air remains moist and conditionally unstable...with no associated front to push this tropical like air out of the area. Thus...will linger a shower possibility after the main batch exits tonight. On Friday...despite lots of cloud hanging on...enough instability may bring more mainly afternoon showers and storms of a scattered and disorganized nature. It will continue warm and muggy tonight. Although clods will again hold temps down in the lower 80s will be humid. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough over area over the weekend...with several embedded waves...helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Still the possibility of brief heavy downpours over the weekend with high moisture content airmass in place...but good news is coverage shouldnt be overly widespread. Regardless...storms...particularly on Sunday will be rather slow isolated water issues cant be completely ruled out. Warmed temperatures slightly on Sunday from previous forecast...but overall...cooler temperatures this weekend until warming trend next week as heights build. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Using a combination of WPC and CONSENSus models...indicated building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The last in the series of upper level waves will depart to the east this evening...taking the rain with it. In its wake dense fog will develop for all terminals with partial clearing occurring. As such have take all terminals down below IFR tonight. The fog will be slow to lift and likely lift into a low stratus deck for a time Friday morning. Another upper level system will move thru Friday morning and into the afternoon hours with sct shra/tsra developing over the area. Winds will continue to be light westerly during the day and calm at night. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing the development of low stratus and dense fog may vary a few hours depending on timing exodus of mid deck overhead. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms later Friday night and Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.