Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 221433 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1033 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. DECREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY...EXCEPT TOWARDS OUR CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS RAIN FREE. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE RAP SOLUTION ON QPF BLENDED WITH THE WRFA5K...DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY IN THE COAL FIELDS AND WV MOUNTAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH...STILL EXPECTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ONE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH 06Z TO 12Z WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND IFR VSBY AND CEILING. OTHER DISTURBANCES IN ITS WAKE WILL RIDE SE AND MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS DURING THE MORNING...FIGURING MORE IN SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA FOR THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 16Z. YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS. MVFR VSBY LIKELY 03Z TO 06Z SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS WANING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 06Z TO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.