Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241800 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late in week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... Minor flooding continues across parts of SE Ohio and NE Kentucky, however in most areas water is receding and flooding issues should continue to dwindle. A broad upper level trough moving through the western Great Lakes will provide mild and mainly dry weather this weekend. Models do show a couple weak 500mb ripples moving through tonight and Sunday. Kept POPs dry, but did include some additional clouds. High and low temperatures will run generally 5-7 degrees cooler than normal for late June. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM Saturday... Cooler and drier in the short term period as upper shortwave trough and surface high pressure remain in control. Could be a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough pushes farther south into the region, but most areas should remain dry. Temperatures during the period actually look to be below normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Saturday... High pressure will rebuild into the region mid week, for a return of dry and warm weather. However, a progressive pattern will take hold for the remainder of the period, along with increasing heat and humidity once again, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous again as the week progresses.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Saturday... VFR cumulus field in place this afternoon should dissipate some as the sun set. A couple 500mb ripples could bring some clouds tonight and Sunday, but rainfall is not expected. Depending on clouds, we could see some river valley fog early Sunday morning as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s in many areas. Opted to include some MVFR fog at EKN, but confidence not real high at this point. Wind will generally be light out of the west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation tonight may be more widespread -- or not occur at all due to clouds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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