Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251820 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 220 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EAST OF THE OH RIVER. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING JUICY AIR MASS TO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST NO LIGHTNING WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND OH. IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH...ROUGHLY AROUND 23Z. THEREFORE...DELAYED VCTS AT HTS AND PKB AROUND THAT TIME. CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS WE LOOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AROUND SHOWERS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW ATTM...THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE SHRA IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADDED VCTS AT PKB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 17Z. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN...AND OVER THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE EKN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT DENSE FOG OUT OF EKN TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. .AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/KMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

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