Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221903 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong cold front with strong to possibly severe storms into tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday... A rather classic set up for severe weather presents itself this afternoon and evening. A strong cold front extended from southeast MI to southern IL early this afternoon. In an axis ahead of it, surface dew points into the lower 70s, CAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and 45 to 50 kts of deep layer bulk shear provide ample potential for severe weather for late August, especially given prime heating time. Already approaching the Ohio River as of early afternoon, the severe threat continues through the evening hours, well out ahead of the advancing cold front. The severe threat will end prior to the frontal passage on loss of heating and of some dynamics. The front itself reaches the Ohio River around midnight, and then crosses the remainder of the forecast area by dawn Wednesday. After low clouds and some fog to start, drier northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid weather Wednesday. Temperatures looked to be on track given the latest guidance and weather pattern, notwithstanding wet bulb cooling, which led to a somewhat lower than guidance forecast for early tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday... High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night for drier weather. Looking to overall be a dry period, with warm sunny days, and foggy mornings under high pressure. A shortwave trough will affect the area on Thursday, which could create a few light showers or sprinkles, but overall, main threat for this appears to be low, and to our north. It will however, bring in an additional shot of cooler air. Overall, will be nice weather, with the much cooler and less humid conditions, and sunny weather.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday... Most of the extended period will remain dry, although there will be a slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain, possibly drifting westward into the lowlands. Expecting a slight increase in temperatures from the short term.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday... A strong cold front moves across the area late this afternoon and tonight, well preceded by a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. After the VFR warm sector start, timing on line of TSTMS has not changed much. After reaching the Ohio River near 19Z, it is expected to arrive at CKB-CRW line around 23Z and into the mountains 01Z-02Z. Conditions can lower to IFR at times in heavy rain, with very strong gusty west winds possible. Low level moisture will follow the front overnight, mainly on IFR stratus, but some fog is also possible. Dry low level northwest flow will allow this moisture to mix out quickly Wednesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main line of storms with cold front could arrive a bit earlier than forecast. MVFR to IFR conditions in low level moisture overnight tonight into Wednesday morning could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... River valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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