Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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925 FXUS61 KRLX 260601 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 201 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Col between systems gives way to southerly flow on Wednesday, ahead of a cold front that will weaken as it crosses Thursday night. Southerly flow re-establishes into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 2 AM Wednesday... Guidance has backed off a bit on dense fog overnight. Forecast otherwise on track. As of 910 PM Tuesday... Just a few minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. As of 725 PM Tuesday... Updated sky cover this evening to better represent the latest meso model and satellite trends. As of 230 PM Tuesday... As the upper level low over the Carolinas moves northeast off the Atlantic coast, winds aloft will decrease and back from the west southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. This winds will bring warm and moist air mass to the area. With near calm winds and enough low level moisture and skies clearing, expect areas of dense fog mainly along the river valleys overnight tonight. A brief high pressure builds over the OH Valley Wednesday providing dry conditions from tonight through Wednesday night. The next cold front approaches Thursday with chance for showers or storms ahead of the front. The actual front crosses Thursday night with additional convection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... S/W ridging breaks down Thursday with a subsequent front entering into the area during the evening hours. There looks to be some convective activity in the afternoon with a prefrontal trof crossing. The actual front looks to become rather diffuse once into the area Thursday night with the threat for showers lingering across the northern mountains overnight. Southerly flow quickly becomes reestablished across the region on Friday as the next upstream system organizes across the lower MS Valley. Temps will run quite a bit above average during the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... This weekend looks kind of dicey as the eventually succumbs to upper level ridging downstream of an amplifying system across the Southern Plains. As a result there will be some showers/storms around the first half of Saturday along a developing warm front especially across northern zones, before ridging shifts the action north of here. The ridge axis shifts to the East Coast on Sunday, putting the area in broad southwesterly flow with the threat for afternoon showers/storms. The aforementioned amplified system will shift into the upper Midwest on Monday with a strong front crossing sometime later Monday. Temps will continue to run above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 2 AM Wednesday... Guidance has backed off on widespread dense fog overnight and this is reflected in the latest set of TAFs. Still have IFR fog 10-13Z except an hour or two earlier in the mountains. There was a public report of dense fog in colville at 05Z, in Wyoming county in southern WV. Once the fog dissipates after daybreak, VFR conditions are expected. After a calm overnight, surface flow will become light south Wednesday afternoon, and become a bit gusty on the ridges Wednesday night. Light west to northwest flow aloft overnight will become light southwest on Wednesday, and then light to moderate south Wednesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium into Wednesday morning, then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog may form earlier and become more widespread after all. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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