Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222009 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 309 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front passes tonight with gusty showers followed by much colder temperatures for Tuesday. Cool and unsettled conditions continue Wednesday, then warmer to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 238 PM Monday... Deep upper level low will pass to our northwest during the period. This will sponsor the passage of a strong cold front across our area tonight. Initial showers now entering our Kentucky counties should remain light and even diminish some as they head east. A better line of showers is expected to develop along the front and head eastward into our area overnight. Could even see an isolated rumble of thunder with these. We will have to watch the wind gust potential with this line of showers as strong winds will be in place just above the surface. However, did not hoist a wind advisory for now as low level inversion should keep strongest winds aloft, and advisories issued by MRX and RNK are for mountain wave potential which should not be a concern on our side of the CWA border. Rainfall amounts are expected to shake out in the one-quarter to one-half inch range, which we should be able to handle hydro-wise. A lull in the precip is expected behind the front Tuesday morning before the passage of the upper level trough axis sparks additional shower development during the afternoon on Tuesday. Temperatures will reach early highs Tuesday morning and then remain steady or slowly fall during the day. Rain showers will transition to snow showers over the higher terrain by late afternoon. The bigger issue on Tuesday will be gusty west- southwest winds which may approach advisory criteria, especially in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 PM Monday... The dry slot behind the front fills in with low-level moisture as the upper low rotates through the area Tuesday Night. As a result of this and the passage of the upper level trough, there is an enhanced potential for accumulating snowfall in the northern lowlands and especially into the upslope areas of the mountains. New snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will amount to a dusting in the lowlands and around 2-3" in the mountain zones according to latest guidance. Gusty winds in the teens (lowlands) and up to the low 40`s mph will again be possible as the base of the trough moves through. A break in the action is forecast Wednesday with a weak ridge breaking otherwise troughing flow, however another upper level short wave is quick to follow that will again enhance precipitation potential. Any afternoon showers would be rain or a mix in the lowlands with light snow accumulations possible in the mountains late Wednesday through Thursday morning before drying out entirely. High pressure builds from the southwest, drying the region out and introducing warm air advection. Highs Thursday according to a model blend will reach into the 40`s in the lowlands and to around 30 in the higher elevations.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday... Upper-level ridging increases and surface high pressure slides across the southern CONUS to round out the work week introducing warm air advection. Lowland temperatures Friday and Saturday will flirt with 60 F under mostly sunny skies (Friday) and continued WAA (Saturday) ahead of the next trough/surface low combination. At this time - a large amount of timing and depth uncertainty exists, so have kept the blend of operational guidance regarding PoP as well as temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1251 PM Monday... VFR flight conditions will prevail through the rest of the day with breezy south to southeast winds. A band of light showers will progress eastward late this afternoon and early in the evening, weakening as it does so. Will handle this with a couple hours of VCSH in the TAFs. Conditions deteriorate overnight. First off, low level wind sheer will develop early in the evening with a stout 45 to 50 kts shown in the forecast soundings as low as 2k ft agl. A band of showers will then progress quickly from west to east along with a cold front. Anticipate a one or two hour period of MVFR conditions with gusty winds as this passes through a given location. A rumble of thunder will be possible but not carried in the TAFs at this time. Conditions then calm down a bit behind the front with most locations returning to VFR before winds pick up again Tuesday morning and ceilings gradually lower back down toward the MVFR range. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Frontal timing/showers could vary from forecast. May need brief IFR visibilities in TEMPOs for the onset of showers. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/MC NEAR TERM...ABE SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...ABE

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