Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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428 FXUS61 KRLX 270423 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1223 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak east to west frontal boundary will dissolve over the area overnight and Wednesday. An upper level system will tap copious moisture to likely produce heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Sent a quick update to remove all PoPs through at least 12z. Also adjusted hourly temperatures to match recent obs and model tendencies. Patchy dense fog expected to develop overnight at most sites. Low visibilities and ceilings are possible over areas that received rainfall and along river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Active weather to start the short term period...with warm and humid conditions to persist. Stalled frontal boundary across northern zones will lift north of the area during the day Thursday as upper shortwave trough approaches from the west. Strong llj developing across the region...will aid in moisture transport...with pw values rising to over 2 inches Thursday. Wave of low pressure moving north through the region Thursday and Thursday night...will help to enhance precipitation...with showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours expected. In addition...could see strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday...with the potential for stronger winds aloft to be brought down to the surface. Will place the mention of possible water headlines for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Still difficult to pinpoint any area of heaviest precipitation/greatest threat...so will highlight entire cwa in the hwo for now. Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for later in the day Friday and Friday night as an upper shortwave trough crosses the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level short wave trough crossing the area were crossing the mountains as of 00Z. They will move on out by 02Z, with MVFR conditions the likeliest worst impact, with a very low chance for thunder. While a shower or thunderstorm remains possible overnight and Wednesday, the expected coverage is too low to explicitly code up in the TAFs. However, there will be some uptick in coverage in the afternoon heating on Wednesday. Otherwise, valley fog is possible overnight through dawn unless a stratocu deck forms again. Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Flow aloft will continue light west. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary overnight. A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M L M H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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