Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 349 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TODAY. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. AS A A RESULT...DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES....WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PREVIOUS POP FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL TIMING. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV NUMBERS. HOWEVER...TRENDED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH WERE COOLER FOR HIGHS TODAY. MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND COULD NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BIT OF MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THEN PUSH EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND EXITING THE FORECAST BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG AT ALL SO STICKING WITH MAX POPS ONLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND EXPECTING LOW QPF WHERE THE SHOWERS DO HIT. SKIES TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A QUIET LIGHT WIND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG A LIKELY OUTCOME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS AT START OF OF THIS TIME FRAME...WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE FIGURED FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR SHUT FOR THE RETURN OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. WITH HIGH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCLUDED JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS E OF ELKINS. FIGURING NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH A E AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MBS...DID KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MENTIONED A 20 SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY IN THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE. WILL ACCEPT WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND START INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE DAY 7 FEATURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOW STATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS... RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR DENSE FOG IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS AFT 08Z. RIVER AND VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z...BUT MVFR TO LOW END VFR STRATUS HANGS ON IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/15/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JSH

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