Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031841 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS FIRED AHEAD OF DECAYING MCV CROSSING SW VA. THIS BKN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS NW INTO SE OH AS OF 18Z. SOME GOOD DUMPERS OVER KANAWHA VALLEY THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH AREAS FURTHER N GETTING IN ON THE ACTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OH RIVER THIS EVE...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEPART WITH IT...LEAVING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA. STILL...WITH THE UPR TROF YET TO CROSS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING...WAS HESITANT ON LETTING E EXTENT OF THE WATCH GO AT 00Z. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...EXTENDED TO 12Z WHILE LETTING W PORTION OF THE WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY EVEN THE E PART OF THE WATCH CAN BE LET GO BEFORE 12Z. THINK LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THIS MOIST LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO SE OH NEAR DAWN...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH FURTHER SE PROGRESS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS SUCH...HELD THE LOW CLOUDS E OF THE OH RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST. WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY. AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCALIZED IFR. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHICH TERMINALS GET HIT WITH STRONGER CELLS...THUS HELD TEMPO IFR OUT SAVE FOR FIRST HR IN HTS. SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE OH RIVER THIS EVENING...TAKING BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. SO...EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 06Z...IF NOT SOONER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE INTO THE MTNS BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE STRATUS TO SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR FG AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTN. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MIDDAY OR LONGER. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO HOLD AT KBKW THE LONGEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ015-016- 024>027-033>037. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008- 013-014. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086- 087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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