Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221113 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 613 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 6 AM Sunday... No significant changes made. As of 320 AM Sunday... Our weather will be dominated by upper disturbances rotating around an approaching upper low from the west. With a deep and moist southerly flow prevailing, temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of year. Models have one weakening disturbance lifting northward through the area today, with a weakening band of rain showers. QPF amounts will be light and greatest over the south. A stronger disturbance lifts north over the area tonight, but this disturbance will tend wrap westward around the main approaching upper low. There will likely be a brief break in the rain between these two systems, but have tended to broadly cover higher pops given timing uncertainty. Models also show a relative dry slot working into the area tonight, but uncertainty again supports a general coverage and continuation of the rain showers overnight, with perhaps a bit of a rain shadow just west of the mountains given a low level southeasterly flow. Instability is such that while there may be a rumble of thunder with the second disturbance tonight, not enough confidence to insert thunder in forecast. Greatest QPF this period looks to be along and west of the Ohio River and northeast Kentucky, as the wraparound band of rain trains somewhat. However, not yet seeing a headline for any flood watch, but will continue to highlight possibility in the hazardous weather outlook.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Heaviest band of rain should be departing to the north entering the start of the short term, with models suggesting a lull/dry slot for a short period of time in its wake. If nothing else, this would me a lesser coverage period of the rain, but will still carry the higher POPs given the abundant moisture and myriad of vort maxes rotating through the 500mb flow. As the parent upper level low exits to the northeast, there will be a transition to more of a modest northwest flow scenario with some upslope type precipitation. Cold advection will be modest, however, and the chances for snow will be limited to the northeast mountains. While the forecast snow amounts have been upped slightly, not anticipating any issues with mountain snow going forward. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Despite the lack of significant cold air on this side of the northern hemisphere, a building ridge aloft out west will result in a broad scale trough regime to set up for our area, changing the storm track to more clipper systems in the coming days with quick upper trough reinforcements of lower 500mb heights. Trend will be colder with northwest flow patterns in the low levels after a brief warm up mid week, and have extended chances for snow showers into the weekend. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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12Z Sunday thru 12Z Monday... As of 115 AM Sunday... Very active weather pattern this period, with bands of rain rotating northward across the area as an upper low approaches from the west. For this morning, while the rain has ended for the time being, quite variable conditions will be the rule. There will be variable VFR clouds, except IFR ceilings on east facing slopes of the WV mountains. Where clouds break and winds stay calm, IFR river valley fog will occur through 13Z, affecting mainly EKN and HTS. After 13Z look for a band of generally light rain showers to lift northward thru the area mainly this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR conditions in this rain. This band will weaken as it gets into northern portions later this afternoon. More widespread rain showers will overspread the area from south to north after 00Z, with conditions lowering to MVFR from south to north after 03Z. Locally IFR in heavier rain showers. Easterly winds 5 to 10 KTS this period, with higher mountain gusts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... Medium, except low in timing of precipitation. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread fog may or may not form Sunday night. Timing and location of southeast upslope clouds tonight could vary, along with timing the rain bands. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H M M L M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M L H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H L L AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR in rain and fog Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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