Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241044 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 644 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... No surface fronts eager to approach. Ridging aloft begins today with its axis shifting to our east Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 645 AM Update... No major changes this the forecast package is on track. Valley fog should dissipate over the next hour or two over the coal fields and mountain valleys. Previous Discussion... Upper level low to the east will finally lift out of the mid Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes...and already have seen the exit of the cloud cover from the counterclockwise flow aloft. Expecting brief ridging in its place over the Ohio Valley before the flow turns west southwesterly aloft...but that should keep the cloud cover to a minimum today and tonight...with an increase in temperatures. Not much surface moisture advection to be seen at this point...with dewpoints still peaking out in the low to mid 50s over the lowlands. This will help to allow one last night of lowland low temperatures in the 50s tonight...which will be gradually increasing into the middle and end of the week as we transition to a more late spring/early summer type pattern. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout. With its axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday into Saturday. Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances. Was even slower introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the initial weakening disturbance aloft. Was not too keen on thunder chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty. Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have pops no higher than 40 percent at this time. By can forget about looking west. Main interest will be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there. Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90 degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature from rising above that observed on Friday. So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the holiday weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather, especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday given the breaking down of the ridge. The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the coastal Carolinas. Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR after the valley fog/mist lifts this morning under generally westerly winds...less than 10kts. No ceilings expected through the TAF period...with only FEW 4-5kft clouds expected during heating hours today. Dry air remains in place...and warmer temperatures expected today means less valley fog tonight. Still will have to watch EKN for IFR or worse visibilities late. Otherwise...brief MVFR to VFR conditions prevail after 03Z Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 06Z tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.