Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270248 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1048 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is crossing the area tonight though showers and thunderstorms have largely moved east of the area. A large upper level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then swirls about the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1045 PM Monday... A cold front is exiting the area. The most dramatic change of the night will be the associated temperature and dew point drop which will make it feel quite chilly. Clearing skies, light winds, and residual moisture should make conditions ripe for a night of dense fog which should last into the late morning. With river temperatures in the 70s and 80s, it seems a sure bet that there will be dense river valley fog. The biggest question mark here is if the winds will slack off enough for formation outside of river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Monday... Some seasonable Fall weather is finally on tap for the region. A Broad upper low/trough will dig south across the region and remain nearly stationary overhead. We will be mostly clear Tuesday night and will have a cool start to the day on Wednesday...as lows drop into the 40s just about everywhere. The cool weather will remain through the end of the week as H500 anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal expected with upper low. As the upper low pushes in we can also expect an increase in shower activity with cooling temps aloft and continued height falls on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 PM Monday... Operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with large upper level low remaining overhead well into the weekend. With the cool temperatures aloft...any daytime heating we receive will quickly yield showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. The good news is that this should bring some much needed rainfall to the region and amounts will remain light enough so we are not expecting any hydro issues. The upper low meanders northward Sunday into Monday with ridging moving in behind it. This will bring warm air back into the region with upper 70s to near 80 degrees for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1045 PM Monday... Cold front moving through bringing isolated MVFR conditions otherwise VFR. Winds lull tonight setting up a favorable environment for LIFR fog, so will be trending forecast that way. River valleys should for sure get hit, but some of the hilltop TAF sites may be just mixy enough to escape. Went with the more pessimistic forecast in hope of light wind. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of stratus and fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Friday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JW

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