Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240745 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. Cold front approaches later in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Wednesday... After a brief respite from the heat and humidity...models are bringing more summer like conditions back. Today will be the transition day as a weak warm front lifts northeastward across the area. While deeper moisture will bring increased clouds today...lack of dynamics and instability will limit precip chances...as suggested by the models. So after some patchy early morning river valley fog...will just go with increased clouds and sprinkles as the weak front crosses the area today. While temperatures will be warmer than yesterday under southerly flow...clouds will temper highs to the mid and upper 80s. For tonight...look for warm and humid conditions in the warm sector with varying amounts of clouds...and lows near 70 with less fog than this morning. Will bring a low chance of showers in the north later tonight as models do show an upper disturbance affecting this area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Wednesday... Hot and humid weather returns to the region in the short term period...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Still looking at a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday...particularly across the north...as a disturbance moves through. Some storms could contain rather gusty winds...mainly across the north...as winds aloft strengthen to 30-40 kts. Greater risk for severe/strong storms will lie just to the north of the cwa however. Surface frontal boundary...associated with surface low moving east across Canada...will sag south into the region later in the day Friday. Still uncertainty with timing...and how far south frontal boundary will trek...with the possibility that the front will stall out or wash out across the CWA. There will be little forcing associated with the front...and expecting mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms...mainly during peak heating hours. Somewhat drier/less humid air may filter in across the north for Saturday behind the front...but looking like at least southern 2/3 of CWA will continue to remain socked in with higher humidity.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 335 PM Tuesday... Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped PoPs in the extended though with very little confidence. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 2 AM Wednesday... 06Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday... Cirrus overnight...will thicken and lower Wednesday...as an upper disturbance with deeper moisture moves across the area. Cirrus will be thin for most of night and...combined with calm winds...allow for river valley fog to form. However...IFR fog will mostly be limited to the more protected river valley areas...at CRW and EKN...with MVFR fog elsewhere. After 13z...With any fog having dissipated...becoming ceilings 6000-8000 feet with the batch of deep moisture associated with the upper disturbance moving across the area from west to east. Not enough dynamics to put more than low chance of measurable precip...so will leave showers out of TAFS. Generally south winds 5 to 8 kts. After 00z...clouds decreasing and lifting across the south and central areas with departure of upper disturbance...but approach of front from the north will keep vfr ceilings 6000-10000 feet up north. Light to near calm winds tonight with even less fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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