-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220631
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry through Tuesday. Rain returns Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front. Dry and warming through the end of the work week. Becoming
hot with next chances of rain for the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure slowly shifts east across the region today,
exiting east overnight tonight with little in the way of sensible
weather concerns. Clear skies, relatively light winds, and dry low
levels have allowed temperatures to plummet this morning with
several cold spots across the Middle Ohio Valley already near
freezing. Will certainly have some patchy freeze in addition to a
widespread frost this morning, but the horse is already out of the
barn so little benefit from selectively upgrading to freeze warnings.

A dry airmass in place coupled with late April Sun angles will yield
a healthy warm up off of chilly morning lows with afternoon highs
across the lower elevations in the lowe to mid 60s. With dew point
values in the mid 20s this afternoon this will make for some rather
dry relative humidity values in the lower to mid 20s. Winds will be
light through the period, so little in the way of fire weather
concerns, especially with the green up now well under way for all of
the lower elevations.

Could have at least some patchy additional frost tonight - most
likely in the Southern Coalfields, although there will be a couple
things working against it: 1.) Increasing mid-level cloudiness ahead
of the next system approaching Tuesday night 2.) Increasing
southwesterly flow toward dawn should promote mixing where cold air
has not become entrenched in cold air drainage early in the night.

Will pass the decision for additional frost/freeze highlights to the
day shift - to be determined once this morning`s highlights
fall off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 226 AM Monday...

Key Points:

* Patchy frost possible early Tuesday morning.

* Strong winds and low RHs will pose a threat for fire danger
  Tuesday afternoon.

* Cold front brings rain late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Minor changes to previous forecast noted with this cycle. A frosty
and dry Tuesday morning becomes active Tuesday afternoon and evening
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Deepening southwest
flow brings warm air advection under strong gusty winds ahead of a
cold front Tuesday. Expect wind gusts to remain under advisory
criteria. However, these winds will allow for good afternoon mixing,
dropping Relative Humidity values into the mid 20s areawide. These
conditions will pose an enhanced threat for fires to develop and
spread into the evening hours.

Tuesday`s afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 70s across
the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations.

Onset of precipitation reaches the Mid Ohio valley by 8-9PM Tuesday
evening, spreading southeast as the cold front crosses the CWA
overnight. Shower activity should diminish from west to east
following the departure of the front Wednesday morning, with drier
conditions returning during the latter half of the day. SPC has the
area under general thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Confidence runs low on thunderstorms per lack on instability and
diurnal heating.

Below normal temperatures expected Wednesday, as colder air
filters in behind the departing front. Highs in the mid to lower
60s lowlands, ranging to the upper 40s higher elevations. A
reinforce for cold air aloft will drop temperatures into the mid
to lower 30s posing a threat for areas of frost once again
mainly across the northern active growing zones Thursday
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 225 AM Monday...

Key Points:

* High pressure brings quiet weather through Thursday night.

* Unsettled conditions return as a system approaches late week into
  the weekend.

* Warming trend by the end of the week, becoming hot for the weekend.

Minor changes noted from previous forecast with high pressure, at
the surface and aloft, building into the area from the north
Wednesday night, and staying in control through Thursday night.

Clouds and chances for showers and thunderstorms increases Friday
into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the area. Passing
upper level shortwaves will enhanced convection along the front.
Unsettled weather remains possible through the weekend while
best moisture and instability remains over the area.

A gradual warming trend is expected through the end of the
week, becoming hot by the weekend, with temperatures reaching
the 80s in the lowlands Saturday, and the mid 80s by Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 AM Monday...

Aside from lingering stratocumulus 040-060 near the mountains,
mainly clear skies are expected through this TAF period. Light
northwesterly flow this morning should keep any fog at bay, but
couldn`t rule out a brief period at EKN before daybreak.

Winds generally light and northwesterly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog possible at EKN this morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions in rain showers and stratus are possible early
Wednesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP