Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011846 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 246 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO 13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT CRW AND EKN. AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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