-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 020643
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30