Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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232 FXUS61 KRLX 201951 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 351 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front moves from west to east this evening into tonight with showers and storms. Precipitation lingers Friday, possibly into Saturday. Moisture starved cold front Sunday Night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... Surface boundary beginning to move again after being stalled across Central Ohio for most of the morning. This is due to a surface low making its way into Central Kentucky early this afternoon. West of this front, have dense cloud cover and fairly widespread rain. East of the front, a cumulus deck has been developing along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thus, the main feature to track through the tonight is the boundary as it slides east. This afternoon, with most of the CWA ahead of the front, we will see showers and thunderstorms moving through. Used a blend of near term, hi-res guidance to formulate POPs...with an area of likely POPs crossing CWA through this evening. Clouds have limited instability some, but combined with decent shear we should still have enough instability to drive some stronger cells capable of gusty winds. Still not real excited about these reaching severe limits, but cannot rule out and isolated bowing segment with damaging winds threat. Tonight, as the front continues east, we will se more widespread precipitation and clouds quickly lowering. Have large area of 100 POPs just behind the front, lingering into the early morning hours. In general, looking at a 1-2" rainfall event providing some relief to the parched ground. Expect a slow recovery on Friday, with low stratus and light rain/drizzle/fog lingering through much of the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, so have fairly flat temps -- and even non-diurnal at higher elevations of the northern mountains as 850mb temps continue to fall through the day. Afternoon highs will be significantly cooler than today, with most locations staying in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Thursday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the area from the west Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough and associated surface low/cold front move out. Rain showers also taper off from west to east Friday night in the low lands, and in the mountains Saturday morning as drier air works in. Pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure will be tight over our area through Saturday, so the strong cold air advection and blustery northwest flow will bring temperatures down to well below normal Friday night through Saturday. Gusty winds Friday night and Saturday with temperatures in the 50s for highs Saturday will make it seem much colder, and some wind gusts in the higher elevations of the northern mountains may exceed 40 mph. Enough cold air will get into the northern mountains to change rain showers to snow showers later Friday night and Saturday morning, but with little accumulation. Sunday will already begin a rebound under high pressure and plenty of sunshine to boost temperatures back into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the dominating feature through Wednesday, except for a weak and moisture starved front dropping across the area late Sunday night and Monday morning. Except for a sprinkle in the northern mountains with the front, dry weather and near normal temperatures can be expected. Thursday will see another system approaching from the west, but with warm temperatures preceding it. Thing && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday... Messy TAF period ahead as a cold front moves through the forecast area. Ahead of the cold front, have a VFR cumulus deck forming with some showers and thunderstorms expected. Did include some MVFR tempos in thunderstorms, using HRRR for timing. Could even get brief IFR. As the cold front passes tonight, more widespread rain is expected as well as a low stratus deck moving in. This leads to IFR to LIFR conditions once the front passes...lingering well into Friday morning. Winds are generally southwesterly this afternoon outside of any thunderstorms, and will shift to northwesterly behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in thunderstorms into tonight. Timing of frontal passage and drop into IFR rain/stratus may well as timing of recovery Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.