-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 130805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD THURSDAY...BUT WARMING FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO THE NORTH...CHANCE OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS RAPIDLY BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WHICH RAPIDLY
KILLS THE NARROW SNOW BANDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...MOST OF WHICH ARE
OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONE PARTICULAR NARROW SNOW BAND SET UP FROM
SOUTHERN WAYNE TO WYOMING AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES OF WEST
VIRGINIA...WHICH LIKELY DROPPED AN INCH OR TWO. THIS BAND IS IN
THE PROCESS OF ERODING RATHER QUICKLY. THUS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS WILL BE BACK ON TRACK BY DAWN. SO...EXPECT ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE
EARLY TODAY...WITH CLEARING ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA SPREADING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...ON WHICH THE MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL.
HELPING THIS BOOST WILL BE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WHICH WILL MAKE
TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. STAY IN THE SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH A RATHER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD AS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS WILL ALSO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO HANG ON FROM ITS SOUTHEAST COAST PERCH
WHILE  A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. WITH THE LOW TRACKING MORE EASTWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH...THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO HANG UP WITHIN THE CWA.
DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT ALL THERE SO WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOWER SIDE. IN THE MEANTIME...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL HOLD THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CONCERNED ABOUT THE
MODEL SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
REQUIRE EVACUATING POPS OUT OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN WV BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...SUGGEST A DEVELOPING OF A SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARBY THE FRONT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
12Z MONDAY.

THE GFS LOOKS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING PCPN ACROSS SOUTHERN
WV...NORTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHWEST VA BY 06-12Z SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK WARM WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING THE ONSET OF
PCPN BEING MOSTLY LIQUID...UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN COLDER AIR RUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLDER AIR IS EVIDENT IN H85 TEMPS IN THE
MINUS 5C TO MINUS 7C BY 18 MONDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN THEN TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
TREND.

THE ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.
THEREFORE...POPULATED POPS AND WEATHER WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
BOTH MODELS ATTM. CONFIDENCE RUNS HIGH ON POPS...THE TRICKY PART
OF THE FORECAST RECEDES ON THE TIMING OF THE PCPN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STARTED WITH HPC GUIDANCE INCORPORATING TRENDS
FROM A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AN ASSOCIATED FRONTS COULD AFFECT THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
09Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THRU 12Z
THURSDAY...THEN AVERAGE 10-15 KTS THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KTS
MOUNTAINS. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY WEST WINDS AOA 10 KTS.

NORTHWEST FLOW AND BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. THE HEAVIEST BAND IN THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
WITH LOCALLY VSBY BELOW 3 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...VFR SCT-BKN STRATOCU OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THRU THE LOW
LANDS...BECOMING MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BY 14Z. IN THE MOUNTAINS MVFR
CEILINGS HANGING ON THRU 14Z BUT SNOW SHOWERS MUCH DECREASED IF NOT
ALREADY DISSIPATED.

AFTER 14Z...VFR SCT CLOUDS LOWLANDS. BECOMING VFR SCT-BKN STRATOCU
MOUNTAINS BY 16Z. AFTER 18Z...VFR SCT CLOUDS ALL AREAS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 03/13/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW MAINLY SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV