Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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879 FXUS61 KRLX 231853 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain into tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Models have the remnants of Cindy riding up along a cold front that will move east southeast across the area later this afternoon and tonight. The aforementioned systems and associated precip will exit the mountains for the most part prior to dawn Saturday morning. Mid level dry slot and breaks in the clouds over NE Ky and much of WV, well ahead of the aforementioned systems, will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon and evening in the tropical like atmosphere ahead of Cindy. PW`s above 2 inches. Looking for the main organized band of heavy convection, associated with Cindy and the cold front, to first move across southeast OH and northwest WV this afternoon, then shifting eastward with the system later afternoon and tonight. Some of the storms may be severe, with mainly damaging winds, over the northwestern half of the area this afternoon and evening as the leading edge of the main band arrives. Inserted mention of heavy rain. Otherwise, clouds will tend fill in with heating this afternoon. Flash flood watch continues til 6 AM Saturday morning, along with a severe thunderstorm watch for the northwest half of the area til 10 PM this evening. For Saturday, with the precip gone early and clouds decreasing, expect a cooler and dry day with brisk west to northwest winds. However, with the increased sunshine adn drier air, temperatures will be similar to Friday. As of 600 AM Friday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm. As of 345 AM Friday... Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft. Therefore the threat for large hail is low. SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday. Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more likely tonight. Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2 inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... High pressure will result in dry weather into Sunday. A cold front should sweep across portions of the region Monday into Monday night bring a chance of showers and storms. Temps will remain below normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Cool high pressure will build in on Tuesday bringing rain chances to an end. Below normal temps should prevail Tuesday into Wednesday before southerly winds result in near normal readings for the remainder of the region. Another system approaching the region from the northwest will result in increasing chances for showers and storms beginning on Thursday which should continue into Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z Friday thru 18Z Saturday... As of 240 PM Friday... Very unsettled period with remnants of Cindy and a cold front coming across the area this afternoon into tonight. Look for scattered diurnal thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, this afternoon and evening well ahead of the system. The organized band of heavy rain and storms, which could also produce strong and gusty winds, will first affect southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia mid to late afternoon, then progress southeastward across the remainder of the area late this afternoon and much of tonight. However, most of the precip with Cindy/cold front will exit the mountains by 12Z Saturday. Generally, expect MVFR ceilings, outside of the scattered afternoon convection ahead of the main band this afternoon. Expect MVFR conditions going to IFR in the main band as it shifts southeast across the area, with general timing mentioned above. Post precip IFR ceilings will continue behind the cold front/Cindy tonight for about 3 to 5 hours. After 06Z slowly improving to VFR ceilings from northwest to southeast, reaching the I79 corridor by 12Z Saturday. Any MVFR ceilings lingering in the east will lift to VFR entire area by 15Z. Southwest winds 10-20 kts and gusty this afternoon, diminishing this evening with loss if heating, then shifting to west to northwest 5 to 10 KTS behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H M L M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M L M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.