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689
FXUS61 KRLX 010549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorms through today as a cold front crosses by this
evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, along with the
potential for localized flooding. Dry Wednesday onward.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Cold frontal passage today from the early afternoon through
the late afternoon into early evening. The front may get hung
up along the mountains into the evening, however it should
rather weaken a bit by then and just promote showers which could
be heavy at times and a few storms, but below severe criteria.
Hi-res models have a fairly disorganized broken line coming
through as early as 15Z and traversing from west to east and
getting to the mountains by 21Z. Thereafter it falls apart
somewhat across our area by then. There are only a few models
that have the feature moving slightly slower such as the EURO
and SREF. Regardless, as always lingering showers across the
mountains will be the likely setup going into the evening, but
thunderstorm potential should be at a minimum.

Severe indices look good with nearly over 2500 J/g of MU CAPE,
almost 30kts of bulk shear and sufficient DCAPE for downbursts
that could cause damaging wind. The freezing levels are high,
over 14k ft, and with not a whole lot of instability for
stronger updrafts and weak upper level support storms may not
be able to promote large hail. With helicity and high LCLs the
tornado threat is almost nill. SPC has us in a marginal threat
for West Virginian and our VA counties so some isolated storms
may become strong to severe.

PWATs are still at around 2 inches along with a well saturated
column in the low to mid levels along with lapse rates above
the environmental rate which all means that heavy downpours are
a realistic thing once again. WPC does have us in a slight risk
for most of the area for excessive rainfall, so localized
flooding will be a threat if storms train or move slow, although
steering flow will be sufficient to move most storms and
showers through at around 30Kts toward the northeast. Therefore
low lying or flood prone areas will be at the most risk.

After the upper level trough supporting the cold front exits
east by Wednesday morning high pressure builds in from the
southwest and supports fair weather across the area.
Temperatures will drop to below seasonable for once today as
cold frontal passage takes place and will stay right around
seasonable for the overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1228 PM Monday...

Cold front should generally be to the east of the area by Wednesday
morning or early afternoon. A few showers or storms are still
possible Wednesday from passing weak disturbances, but most areas
should be dry. A secondary front crosses the area Thursday. Once
again, an isolated shower or storm is possible, but for the most
part, the area should be dry, and overall less humid than as of
late.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1228 PM Monday...

Increasing temperatures and humidity look to round out the extended
as upper heights build across the area. Showers and thunderstorms
will also be on the increase over the weekend, mainly diurnal in
nature. Ridge looks to break down somewhat towards the end of the
extended period, as a disturbance moves across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Tuesday...

Just a little bit of valley fog and post rain fog at a few
sites, mainly CRW/EKN and then should dissipate by 12Z.
Thereafter, a cold front approaches from the west and promotes
shower and thunderstorm chances while passing through the
afternoon and into the evening. By early evening the sites
should be out of the activity and then go to VFR by then.
Otherwise some periods of IFR VIS and MVFR CIGs under shower and
storm potential will be the main theme today. Things should be
moving relatively quickly with 30kts steering flow and cells
will be moving northeast with most activity likely between 15Z
to 21Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of shower/thunderstorm activity may
vary from the forecast. Fog timing, coverage, and intensity
this morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/01/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms through early Tuesday
night, and in valley fog Wednesday/Thursday/Friday mornings.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ