Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311746 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AMPLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATURATED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY MODELS AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMAS AT H5...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUICY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM AND PERHAPS LOWER TO THE SFC AT SOME PLACES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. AREAS OF RAIN MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIURNAL CU DECK FORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON COULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 22Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED TSRA AND VCTS FROM TAFS AS RADAR SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TO BE MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO FORM THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW STRATUS SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY MAKE VISIBILITIES TO COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT RAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...ARJ

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