-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 281741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS DECK FINALLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT
STILL A CHILLY DAY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. HAVE
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIALLY...LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA TO START. WITH THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...WILL ALSO SEE SOME WET BULBING AND IN NW PART OF CWA
COULD SEE BRIEF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT
OF FREEZING RAIN IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE WET
BULBING THIS COULD JUST AS EASILY BE SLEET. ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID MORNING.
SNOW/SLEET WILL LINGER AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT TONIGHT...HAVE NON DIURNAL
TREND FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN BEGIN WARMING SOME PRE-DAWN IN
SE OHIO AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN KHTS AREA BY 09Z. IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK...SO TIMING OF
THE WARM-UP IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUICK ONCE IT HAPPENS.
SPENDING MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A NICE
WARM-UP WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE
CWA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS
FROPA. APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN
UPSLOPE REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED
UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7 INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR
POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS
AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY
WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA GIVEN LONG DURATION.
ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BKW
AND EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN SOON...STILL SOME MVFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. MAYBE A FEW STRATOCU POPPING UP THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT STAYING VFR. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING
LATE...IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND LOWLAND RAIN/HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. KEPT TAF SITES VFR IN RAIN...BUT IFR IS EXPECTED
WITH THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT...STARTING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SW TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MVFR MAY HANG ON AT BKW AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER.
TIMING OF PRECIP TOMORROW MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ