Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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229 FXUS61 KRLX 300652 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 252 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Tuesday... Weak high pressure over the area today...but some moisture remains in the mountains. Therefore...can not rule out a few afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms. Will continue with small pops in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM Tuesday... Main player for the short term is a cold front which will cross the forecast area Wednesday night. For the day Wednesday, we will be in the transition time period between current high pressure exiting and cold front approaching from the northwest. Models in fairly good agreement with Wednesday being dry across much of the CWA. Do have some low end POPs across the mountains during the afternoon. Also have POPs leaking into far northwest zones late Wednesday afternoon into evening. Showers and storms associated with the cold front will cross Wednesday evening and overnight. Have POPs lingering into Thursday afternoon across the southern WV mountains and southwest VA with 500mb shortwave trough crossing during this time frame...however moisture may already be meager low to support much. Wednesday will be another warm day, however behind the front much of the CWA will struggle to reach 80 on Thursday...with a comfortable night expected Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Monday... Started with WPC for this forecast. Once the cold front moves across the area, high pressure will be in control for the end of the week into the weekend. This will bring dry weather. High temperatures will gradually increase over the weekend. Starting on Friday, expect temperatures in the lower 60s in the high elevations to the 70s in the lowland. Throughout the weekend, temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s west to the lower 70s in the mountains. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Expect dense river valley fog throughout much of the area...forming first in the mountains and northern WV. After the fog lifts this morning...expect a VFR cumulus field in the mountains and portions of the coal fields...with clear skies elsewhere. VFR skies will prevail Tuesday evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. IFR possible in areas of fog Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...RPY

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