Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160532 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 132 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... Despite some clouds drifting through, still getting river vally fog across the forecast area. Expect this to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Can pick out a weak MCV moving into central TN/KY on radar and satellite. Models show this brushing by to the south this morning, so have isolated to scattered showers and storms -- mainly in SW VA. Models also show a weak vort lobe moving by just to the north...so added some isolated showers and storms across extreme NW forecast area this afternoon as well. A warm front lifts through tonight, with POPs on the increase through the night. With the fog around early this morning, and a lot of clouds tonight, generally raised low temperatures a degree or two across the board. Only minimal change made to highs for this afternoon -- tweaked up a bit across central forecast area, and down a bit north and south were clouds/showers are will be more prevalent.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... SFC stationary frontal boundary remains over the area oriented west to east Wednesday night. This boundary will serve as a focus for convection mainly during the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday and Friday as southwesterly flow pump moisture and warm advection. Models suggest pwats values exceeding 2 inches. Any passing upper level shortwave will be enough to act on the sfc boundary for showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Friday night, an approaching cold front will bring better chances for showers or storms into Saturday. The actual FROPA crosses Friday into Saturday morning enhancing strong showers, some wth heavy shower or storms. Broad high pressure will dominate over the Great Lakes region, OH Valley and portions of the Mid Atlantic states. Use a blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... Dense valley fog already starting to form, and expect this trend to continue. Guidance even showing high probability of fog at BKW which does not happen very often. Fog will dissipate 13Z- 15Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Could get isolated to scattered showers across the far south and far north today, but should not cause any restrictions at TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog overnight may vary. Radiation fog at BKW in forecast is somewhat unusual and may not materialize. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L L L M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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