Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190322 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1022 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1020 PM Thursday... Tweaked hourly temps based on trends of holding onto some wind thus far. As of 612 PM Thursday... Another frigid night on tap, though not quite as cold as last night. Despite the snow cover and starry skies, low level winds will help to keep temps from getting too out of hand overnight. Still, expect a quick fall this evening, especially in the hollers and outlying locations. It is here, along with the high mountain valleys, where middle single digits were coded up. The hilltops and ridgetops will stay a bit warmer, relatively speaking. As of 130 PM Thursday... Broad sfc high pressure centered roughly over the lower MS River will have a ridge, extending northeast across TN, KY and WV through Friday. The high pressure center is expected to pass well south of the area through the weekend. Despite of clear skies expected, models show warm advection under southwest to west winds. H850 temperatures will increase just 2C by Friday from minus 2C this afternoon. Lows generally in the teens, compared with the widepsread single digits of early this morning, reflect the ongoing retreat of the arctic air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Thursday... Warm air advection continues with surface ridging into the area to start the weekend. Gradual warming is expected through the weekend ahead of the next storm system. High clouds start streaming in later Saturday, with enough sunshine during the day, especially toward the east, to warm us nicely into th 40`s and 50`s. A warm frontal boundary lifts across the region Sunday with some modest over-riding flow. Overall not expecting a heavy rain threat with this - expect mostly cloudy temperatures and a continuation of the warming trend light rain showers. Depending on timing, i.e. if the warm front lifts before diurnal heating takes over, there could be a wintry mix in the mountains upon precip onset. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM Thursday... The cold front associated with the aforementioned system skirting across the region moves through Monday into Monday night according to latest model guidance. Expect good moisture with PW around an inch or so, far above the climatological norm. Luckily, this is a progressive system so not expected widespread water issues at this time in spite of heavy rain potential. Will have to keep an eye on rivers for ice jams, however. Expect a Tuesday morning changeover to a wintry mix and snow, especially across higher terrain. Models at this time don`t show great potential for cold air advection/upslope showers for very long behind the front, but long range models are notoriously poor in modeling these things - so have added in low PoPs Tuesday especially across the north. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 620 PM Thursday... CAVU through the period. Moderate westerly boundary layer winds may result in a marginal LLWS threat, but threat is too marginal and uncertain for inclusion in the TAFs attm. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear could materialize if boundary layer winds are a little stronger than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... None.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...SL/MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...30

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