Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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993 FXUS61 KRLX 280701 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 301 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints on the increase through the end of the week. Cold front late Saturday/Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 AM Wednesday... Forecast on track under building high pressure this clear, calm overnight. Made diurnal adjustments to the hourly temperatures to better match the forecast lows, which look good. As of 925 PM Tuesday... Models appear to be on track. Most of the diurnal clouds that developed today have dissipated and winds around the area have become light. Temperatures have cooled into the 60s in most locations with 50s across the highest elevations. Latest temperature guidance continues to indicate the forecasted lows tonight are very reachable. As what usually happens, the MOS guidance for our Cooperative Observer locations based on the GFS indicates temperatures in rural areas will be several degrees cooler than the more urban sites. One example of this is that this guidance shows the low temperature at our office will be in the upper 40s while the low in the lower 50s at the Charleston airport, the official observation site, looks good. As of 230 PM Tuesday... Models continue to settle Canadian high pressure directly over the area tonight, allowing for clear skies after some afternoon cumulus clouds, and near calm winds. This will bring ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. Little change to previous thinking concerning low temperatures tonight, which remain close to but just above record values in the major metropolitan areas. However, record lows may be reached in the more protected valleys by dawn Wednesday. These lows we have forecast are actually on the low side of the vast majority of guidance, but cannot neglect the ideal cooling scenario. In addition, despite the dry air in place, there will likely be some river valley fog later tonight, mainly at CRW and EKN. So, will not get carried away with the fog given the dry air in place. For Wednesday, the high moves off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Under abundant sunshine and still relatively dry air, temperatures will rebound to around 80 degrees or so. Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases: LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear Current as of 1 am CRW Charleston 51 56 50 1988 HTS Huntington 51 56 47 1915 PKB Parkerburg 50 54 48 1988 EKN Elkins 43 48 39 1988 BKW Beckley 49 52 39 1955 CKB Clarksburg 49 51 46 1927 && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Wednesday... Broad high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast, will extends west into WV Thursday night. This will continue to bring mostly clear skies and warm temperatures through Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the northwest stalling to our north Saturday. Its vicinity could enhance the formation of showers or storms during the afternoon hours. Models show a series of upper level shortwaves that should keep the warm sector convectively active through the weekend. Overall, dry Thursday and Thursday night with PoPs increasing to likely by Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 305 PM Monday... By Sunday, with the weakened stationary front just north of the area, chances for pcpn diminish to bring dry conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Additional upper waves will keep unsettled weather through the rest of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 155 AM Wednesday... High pressure brings VFR except for early morning fog. All guidance suggests only CRW and EKN go LIFR, and some guidance does not even bring CRW to IFR. Fog is not likely to form Wednesday night, as the high moves east, giving way to southwest flow increasing to 25 to 30 kts aloft. The calm surface air under high pressure overnight will give way to light south to southwest flow by Wednesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium overnight for fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR at EKN may begin later than the 07Z time coded in the TAF. IFR may not form at all at CRW, although there will be dense fog in the valley along the Elk River there. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JSH/TRM

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