Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 241029
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
629 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Cold front crossing during the early morning, with gusty winds in
the mountains and maybe an isolated shower. High pressure mid
week. An organized system crosses late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday...
Cold front currently just north of West Virginia across Southern
PA. Although this front does not have much in the way of
precipitation it is producing decent winds out ahead of it in the
mountains. Have seen gusts this morning of 40 to 45 mph and this
will likely last about another 3 to 4 hours. Then winds will
decrease at daybreak as low level jet moves to our east. There
may be a few gusts at the higher elevations that meet advisory
criteria, but due to the isolated coverage and minimal impacts the
winds would have in those areas, I decided to hold off on a wind
advisory this morning. It is also possible that we may see an
isolated shower with upslope northwest flow through early this
afternoon with the front.
The front exits by this afternoon with high pressure moving in.
Skies will clear and with ridge building overhead and we should
see winds decouple overnight in the valleys. This will make for
good radiational cooling and frost will be possible overnight in
sheltered valleys. Still not sure however if we will fog out
first, so will hold off on issuing any frost headlines at this
time, but one may be needed with the afternoon forecast package.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Monday...
High pressure builds overhead Monday night, when mostly clear skies
and cold temperatures will allow for frost possible across the
forecast area. Additional frost will be possible Tuesday night. It
is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys.
Winds will be around 5 mph from the north northwest. Most sections
will see clearing through the day. A low pressure system move over
the OH Valley and WV Thursday morning. Likely PoPs across the north
and high chance across the rest of the area. PoPs gradually diminish
Thursday night into Friday.
Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures through the
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 323 AM Monday...
High pressure takes control once again on Friday with dry
conditions. Another low pressure system drives a cold front to the
region by Sunday morning. Coded likely PoPs mainly north and
Northeast mountains and high chance for the rest of the areal. Used
a blend of models ensembles for temperatures and dewpoints through
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 625 AM Monday...
Low Level Wind Shear conditions continue to decrease and have left
it out of the 12Z TAFs. Cold front will cross the region this
afternoon. The front could also bring borderline MVFR ceilings
across northern terminals. Conditions will improve to mostly
clear skies just about everywhere by this evening as high pressure
builds overhead. This will make for predominantly clear skies
tonight and with most areas decoupling, we could see valley fog
develop during the early morning hours tomorrow. For now I brought
in IFR conditions only at EKN, but IFR to MVFR fog occur
throughout valley locations. At this time, I am still not
confident enough to bring IFR conditions at any other locations,
but hint at it with MVFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today, Medium tonight with fog possible.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings with the front are possible
today at northern sites. Still not certain on timing or coverage
of fog tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL
INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT
ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH
MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
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