Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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013 FXUS61 KRLX 161759 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 159 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front front will push through the area Thursday into Friday and bring unsettled conditions. Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Wednesday... We will be well within the warm sector of system tracking into the Great Lakes for most of the day tomorrow. Cold front starts pushing into the region late tomorrow afternoon with current consensus of guidance having the front near the Ohio Valley around 0Z Friday. Could see a few scattered showers out ahead of the front during the day tomorrow with a weak prefrontal trough pushing through. Otherwise the heaviest rain will not arrive until after 0Z Friday. PWATs will be in the 2" range and any showers and storms will likely contain locally heavy rainfall, but any flash flood concerns are very low at this time. The best dynamics will pass just to our north of our CWA, but our NW`rn West Virginia Counties and Eastern Ohio Counties will be on the fringe of best lift. Have decided to leave the HWO as is for now with low probability of Flash Flooding in those areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... A front will drive a juicy air mass through the region Thursday evening with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Latest model trends keep most upper level energy to be north of the area which lends a little more uncertainty to the potential for severe weather and/or flash flooding due to lack of forcing in our CWA. Will maintain extra awareness for this period to see if anything changes. Showers linger Friday. By Saturday morning, weak high pressure rebuilds for a drier day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... High pressure remains over the region through Monday. Zonal flow in a weakly forced environment makes this period a low confidence forecast for timing/precip intensity. A front is supposed to cross Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Wednesday... A warm front lifts through overnight with increasing clouds across the region overnight and maybe even a few isolated showers. However, showers will most likely be minimal in the stable warm sector, and will increase in coverage Thursday afternoon when a cold front approaches. Cloud cover tonight should limit fog coverage, however any areas where there are breaks in the clouds could still see IFR fog develop. Low confidence at this time as to what sites see any fog at all, but for now have kept borderline IFR fog at PKB as cloud cover could be less there and also have it at the usual suspect in EKN and have just MVFR fog at all other site except BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...other than low confidence overnight with fog ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and coverage will likely vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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