Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252028 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 328 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING THIS CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND HOLDS ON INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A TRANQUIL PERIOD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD....BUT RIDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. UNTIL THEN...MODELS HAVE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES/MOUNTAIN FLURRIES ERODING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS...LOOK FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING IN MOST OF THE LOW LANDS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS CLEARING BY AROUND 2 AM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WE CAN EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S...AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER CHILLY NT FRI NT...BEFORE EXITING ON SAT. HAVE SIMILAR TIMING AS PREVIOUS FCST FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SAT EVENING...AS A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY A LONG...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WELL BEHIND IT. THAT TROUGH MINORS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND BEYOND...AS A LARGE TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG THE CONUS W COAST BACKS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SAT NT...BUT A FLAT WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO CATCH UP TO IT...IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED MIX FOR LOWS FRI NT AND HIGHS SAT...AND THEN FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES SAT NT AND SUN AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. ONLY HAVE TEMPERATURES GETTING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S NW CORNER OF FCST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THIS IS A RAIN ONLY EVENT THROUGH THAT TIME. VIA THE RFC...HAVE FROM TWO DIMES QPF IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS...AND CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH IN THE WV MOUNTAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLING OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...AND HAVE POPS COMING TO AND END ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT ON GFS AND ECMWF...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS THE COLD AIR SQUEEZES OUT WHAT REMAINS OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A GOOD DEAL LOWER ON THE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS HIGH NOSES IN...SO LOWERED POPS VS. PREVIOUS FORECAST. BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... THRU 00Z...COLD ADVECTION MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. THIS WARMING AND DRYING WILL CLEAR THE SKIES IN THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST BY 00Z...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR HTS TO GO VFR BY 22Z...PKB AND CRW AND BKW AROUND 01Z...WITH CKB AND EKN REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS. ANY LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY 22Z. AFTER 00Z...BECOMING VFR MOSTLY CLEAR LOW LANDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY 03Z....LEAVING EKN WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BECOMING VFR CEILINGS BY 06Z AND CLEARING BY 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JMV

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