Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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820 FXUS61 KRLX 251804 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 204 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances within ridge aloft today into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may eventually increase shower coverage Sunday into Monday...especially over mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Unsettled weather returns for the near-term period...high pressure at the surface with upper ridge across eastern US...with above normal temperatures...and increasing relative humidity. Several weak upper disturbances will affect the region during period...one this afternoon/evening...increasing chances of showers and storms mainly across far western zones. Thunderstorms will be isolated at best owing to weak instability and cloud cover inhibiting convection. Initial wave will weaken as it crosses area but additional waves expected tonight and tomorrow...which will trigger additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. With lack of strong dynamics no severe storms expected. Tonight will be warmer as dew points and cloud cover increases with upper-level disturbance. Continued above average temperatures with rebounding heights for tomorrow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Certainly hard to grasp any significant feature and run with it. Will have to wait until these time periods get into the near term...and try to get more specific. So...as of now...hourly pops certainly can not get out of the chance range. Weak mid/upper level disturbances linger Thursday...before 500 mb heights increase slightly Thursday night into Friday. Most of the moisture plume in the lower Ohio Valley should remain to our west through Saturday. Yet...the precipitable water still jump back to around 1.25 inches Thursday and Friday. Then the southeast flow actually brings drier air aloft on Saturday...lowering the precipitable water. A weak flow dominates with afternoon and evening instability...so reserved the mention of thunder for the afternoon and evening hours. In the weak flow...tried to have the higher chance pops on Thursday over the mountain counties. On Friday afternoon and evening...some hints on both the 00z gfs and 00z nam that if some convective cells form the southern mountains...it may try to drift north...off the mountains into the southern lowlands. Figuring a breeze stirs overnight Thursday night in southeast Ohio...so have minimum temperatures a bit higher there. Otherwise... in the light winds...have minimum temperatures a bit below guidance in the hollers further south and east...but leftover clouds could hurt that thinking. We still have some 90 degree temperatures on Saturday...in the southern river valleys...as that mentioned drying aloft occurs. Of course...most official temperature sites in the lowlands have not reached 90 degrees yet this year. Due to a weak southeast flow...maximum temperatures along the eastern slopes...including the southern plateau around Beckley...are not forecast to be higher Saturday compared to Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend. Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the ridge begins to drift east. As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non- negligible chance at night. Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance. Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions through period with light surface winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after 20Z creating low VFR or isolated MVFR conditions. Bulk of convection decrease after 02Z with loss of heating but will redevelop Thursday after 16Z. Patchy low VFR fog possible sheltered mountain valleys such as at KEKN late tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL/AJV SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL/AJV

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