Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150616 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 116 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak wave crosses into Friday. A clipper system passes north of the area Friday night. Weak system brings light rain Sunday. Another clipper crosses Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As 115 AM Friday... Forecast largely on track. As of 1010 PM Thursday... Only some minor temperature adjustments for the overnight period. As of 655 PM Thursday... After some deliberation, have added low end POPs to the mountains centered around the 12Z time frame tonight with the weak low level frontogenesis and surface trough in place. Models are definitely inconsistent with this, but think there is enough low level moisture depth with this weak forcing to get light snow. No accumulations in the forecast. As of 100 PM Thursday... Dirty high pressure building over the area, but appears that some cold air stratus and left over lake effect clouds will become trapped under the high. With patches of clouds floating around, it leads to low confidence tonight on where clouds will be. This also makes overnight lows rather tricky. With winds becoming light, thinking there will be enough holes for temperatures to drop near dew points. A wave moves well north of the area on Friday. It will create a little moisture increase in the north in the afternoon. This could be enough for few flakes due to the cold 850 mb temperatures, so will keep some small pops.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Upper heights build into the region Friday night and Saturday, allowing for an overall warming trend. S/W trof approaching the area weakens as ridging builds across the southern states. I still expect some light rain with this system Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday... The warming trend that began in the short term will carry over in the extended before cold air comes back late Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper trof temporarily makes a return across the region.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 115 AM Friday... A weak wave crossing overnight and Friday will maintain the widespread stratocu deck, near 4 kft across the lowlands, but MVFR in and near the mountains through Friday morning, with flurries or light snow showers possible. Any snow should not cause persistent visibility restrictions. Ceilings may lift above MVFR in the mountains, and even break up across parts of the middle Ohio Valley late Friday, as the wave moves off to the east. However, upslope west flow developing in the wake of a cold front crossing late Friday, will likely cause ceilings to lower to MVFR in the mountains Friday night, with lowland SCT-BKN stratocu up around 4 kft. Light and variable surface flow overnight will gradually freshen from the west-southwest Friday, and then become gusty once the cold front passes late Friday, Surface winds will become west- northwest in the mountains Friday night. Light southwest flow aloft overnight will become moderate west Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocu could vary. Snow showers may bring MVFR to IFR visibility in the northern WV mountains Friday night. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H M L M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in heavier snow showers overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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