Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011834 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DAWN. THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT- DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W TROUGH. BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO 13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT CRW AND EKN. AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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