Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261920 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 246 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weakening MCS tonight. Storms Saturday with a frontal boundary and high instability. Another Thunderstorm complex on Sunday followed by a cold front Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Synoptically, flow aloft will turn zonal tonight, while a warm front pushes northward. Awaiting a cold front dropping back southward through the CWA Saturday as a result of a surface wave passage. High res and synoptic models remain keen on the development of a MCS in northern Illinois/Indiana later this afternoon and evening, tracking into middle/upper Ohio Valley. Biggest question here is the exact track with the high res models taking the southern extent closer to the I-64 corridor, despite steering flow suggesting that it should stay a bit further north. Concentrating those POPs tonight along US 50, but this complex will likely be on the wane as it enters the CWA, or shortly after. Atmosphere should have plenty of time to recover after dawn in the warm sector. CAPE values are in line with the frontal position as expected, and with the cold front sinking southward through the afternoon, this should be a southern two thirds of the CWA severe/water event. Will need to carry slight to low chance however north of the boundary. Decent 0-6km flow around 40kts and instability warranting the slight risk for the area south of the front, with the enhanced area closer to our area from the latest SPC issuance. Water cannot be ignored either. Very saturated in terms of surface conditions and creek/stream levels, and any sort of repetitive activity will cause problems. Flash flood guidance values are quite low given the recent wet trend. Convective activity Saturday will largely dictate the weather heading into Saturday night and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Friday... Models still showing a disturbance moving through the area early Sunday. Depending on the timing of the system, could see enough recovery for afternoon thunderstorms. A cold front then pushes through Sunday night into Monday. With the ground so saturated, still concerned with the potential for flash flooding. Will highlight heavy rain in the forecast wording.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Friday... An upper level trough will dominate the weather for Monday night through Thursday. This will provide relatively cool weather. A reinforcing cold front moves through on Tuesday, followed by another front Wednesday into Thursday. Models have quite a bit of variability in the timing of the later front. Some showers are possible with both these systems. Model differences become even greater by Friday, leading to considerable uncertainty in the forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Friday... VFR through the afternoon with wind gusts 20-25kts and cumulus above 4kft. Complex of storms moves in from the west northwest after 05Z Saturday, and will likely be on the slow wane. However, TSRA and IFR visibilities are likely at PKB and CKB, but carry only SHRA into EKN by the time it reaches that terminal. The southern sites of HTS, CRW, and BKW will likely be on the fringe of this activity, so some restrictions may have to be added here with a track that goes a bit further to the south. All models are holding strong on decreasing ceiling heights into the late morning hours, so carry MVFR during this time. Cold front drops south, so the bulk of the afternoon convection should be relegated south of PKB-CKB-EKN. That said, leaving low chances for convection across the north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 06Z. Medium after. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection timing tonight could vary by an hour or two. Thunder chances may need to be added or eliminated across northern terminals.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY NOT AVAILABLE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR likely in showers and storms Saturday night through Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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