Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182315 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse Tuesday through Wednesday, with showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 710 PM Monday... Almost a carbon copy of yesterday under the same pattern, so no changes. As of 230 PM Monday... Area remains in a col, virtually right up through the upper levels, between Jose churning off the eastern seaboard, and upper level troughiness over the western U.S. Dirty ridging generally prevails over the eastern U.S. Patchy cloud continues including afternoon cu, and mid and high cloud associated with weak upper level disturbances. The clouds have had little impact on valley fog, which will occur again overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. It may be impacted from clouds from the next upper level disturbance, however. Micro upper level ridging right over the mountains Tuesday, should break the afternoon shower routine there. However, a weak upper level disturbance producing showers and thunderstorms up and down the Mississippi River Valley today, may do the same into the middle Ohio valley Tuesday afternoon. Leaned on low side of guidance on lows tonight, especially in the valleys. Previous forecast was in line with converged guidance on highs Tuesday, another above normal day with a warm afternoon on tap. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... A weak upper-level disturbance moves overhead during the period with a boundary draped across the Ohio Valley. Although the front struggles to actually move into the area, upper- level support and extant low- level moisture indicates at least diurnal shower activity. Thunderstorms are possible with models indicating instability on the order of 1500 CAPE Wednesday afternoon, though little shear exists to organize into a severe threat. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Deep ridging across the eastern US extends into the region for the period upstream of a meandering Jose in the Atlantic. This more robust area of high pressure greatly limits shower and storm activity. Low-level moisture remains, however, so foggy mornings are likely. Mountain showers/storms are also possible though likelihood generally wanes through the period with high pressure building and pushing any opportunistic frontal boundary northward out of the area. Brought PoP`s up somewhat in the mountains through the period given moisture availability in spite of weak forcing. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday... As of 710 PM Monday... High confidence persistence fog forecast. Have IFR roughly 6-14Z PKB and EKN, 7-14Z HTS and CKB, 9-14Z CRW and none at BKW. The transition from VFR to IFR tonight will be quick, as will the improvement from IFR to VFR Tuesday morning. Otherwise any isolated light shower in the mountains will dissipate by 03Z. A weak upper level disturbance will approach the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Clouds associated with it could impact the fog there late. A shower or thunderstorm from that system could get near the Ohio River Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog could vary an hour or so, possibly more at HTS and PKB if clouds increase from the west early enough Tuesday morning, and at CRW, depending upon when the Elk River fog gets deep enough to envelop the runway. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JMV

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