Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262301 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 557 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RAIN SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 521 PM SUNDAY... SLOWED SKY COVER ARRIVAL A BIT THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS EXPECTED TO GO CALM, SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL GOOD HOURS OF RADIATIVE COOLING. WILL LOWER VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN, A SERIES OF H500 SHORT WAVES NOTICEABLE IN VORTICITY FIELD, WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THESE FEATURES COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS, INTO THE MID 20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. USED THE BLEND OF MODELS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING ANOMALOUS PWATS OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GROWING. WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THIS PAST SATURDAY, BUT CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS FRONT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS INSTEAD OF OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN IF THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, CAPE VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD YIELDS AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILE WITH CURRENT GFS INDICATING 60 TO 70 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE MODEST INSTABILITY COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE FORECAST DETAILS UNFOLD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTS, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND MOST OF THE AREA HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS, WITH NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 557 PM SUNDAY... VFR conditions can be expected this evening. A disturbance moving across the area late tonight and Monday may provide some light rain. Even so, conditions will remain VFR at most locations, although some MVFR conditions can not be ruled out in central Ohio. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers are not included in the TAFs due to chances of precipitation being below 50 percent. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY

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