Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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635 FXUS61 KRLX 162330 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 630 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Anafront east of the mountains, will produce snow accumulations tonight. Arctic high pressure crosses Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest flow of milder air this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Radar images show two distinctive snow bands crossing the KY and WV border near the tri state area. Sfc reports indicate 2 to 3 inches of snow have fallen during the last 12 hours. Additional 3 inches of snow can be expected with these snow bands across portions of southern WV through this evening. Therefore, a Winter weather advisory for snow has been upgraded to winter storm warning for heavy snow, and the rest of the area remains under snow advisories. Under strong cold advection, temperatures will fall into the single digits everywhere overnight into early Wednesday morning. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... High pressure will continue to build overhead on Wednesday night and another cold night is expected. Wind Chills could reach advisory criteria in the mountain zones. Will continue to highlight in the HWO. Good news is that ridging continues to build overhead with warm air advection and temperatures should climb above freezing by Thursday afternoon for a large portion of the region. Friday will even be warmer yet as ridging remains overhead and warm SW flow pushes into the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM Tuesday... A warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area over the weekend, with light rain showers developing by Saturday afternoon. We will be well within the warm sector on Sunday, with temperatures possibly climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Cold front comes through on on Monday and will bring a shot of moderate to heavy rain with it. As the system pulls out, we may see a changeover to snow in the mountains Monday night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 625 PM Tuesday... Snow will slowly taper off west to east, with HTS and PKB nearly out of the snow at this point, and expect less than an hour of visibility restrictions from each of those two sites on the front end of this forecast. Conditions improve through 06Z area wide, and snow ends by 09Z tonight, with primarily only MVFR ceilings an issue at that point. May break out from the OVC/BKN into SCT conditions for a few hours here and there once the snow exits. Wind gusts should remain under 12kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the exit of IFR snow may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M L M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M L L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... None. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ520>526. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ007-008-016>020-027>032-039-040. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ005- 006-013>015. OH...None. KY...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.