Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 230800
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
400 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
High pressure today. Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses early
Monday morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and possibly an
isolated shower. Stronger system crosses late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM Sunday...
A sfc high pressure will control the weather conditions today.
Southwest flow will bring warm advection. Together with plenty of
sunshine, temperatures will recover from tonights chill.
A weak cold front approaches from the west tonight. Do not expect
much rainfall with this front. The actual front will reach the OH
river by 06Z Monday.
Used a blend of models for temperatures through the period.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...
Weak frontal system could kick off a few showers across the
mountains Monday morning combined with some gusty winds. High
pressure builds overhead Monday night and will make for a clear
and chilly night with frost possible across the Northern Forecast
Area from the Ohio Valley to the Eastern West Virginia Mountains.
It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...
Weather impacts in the long term will be mostly from upper trough
and surface cold front for Thursday. Not a whole lot of moisture
with this front, but it does look like most of the region will see
scattered rain showers. There is a little bit of time differences
within the model guidance at this time and I have decided to go
with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance through this
period due to these differences. After this trough moves out the
flow looks to become more zonal and we could have a few impulses
moving through the flow for next weekend, bringing unsettled
weather back to the region.
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...
A sfc high pressure system will keep the area cool and dry through
Sunday. Satellite images and sfc observations show a mid level
deck, about bkn090 moving east across southeast OH and WV. These
clouds could interrupt radiational cooling and prevent fog
formation. With a dry airmass in place, do not expect fog.
Satellite images also show some clouds over the northeast
mountains about 3 thousand feet that should remain through sunrise.
Overall, VFR conditions expected with localize MVFR ceilings
through the period.
Weak southwest flow will increase to 10 knots prevailing with
some higher gusts over the ridges.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings next
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ033-034.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.