Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011838 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR FROM N KY INTO W WV. QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY THUS FAR FOR AREAS FROM HTS TO CRW TO BKW. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THE STRATUS WILL CONT TO MIX OUT INTO BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA S OF I64 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS SW VA...AND THE S COAL FIELDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPPING A HAIR FURTHER S AND BECOMING MORE ENGERGIZED WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION. DID ALLOW FOR THUNDER ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN LACK OF GOOD HEATING DESPITE THE THETA E ADVECTION. MUCH OF THE ACTION WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST ISOLATED SHRA THREAT ACROSS S WV AND SW VA. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE FG AND LOW STRATUS WILL FORM. BL WINDS LOOK TO RELAX QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THINK BEST FG POTENTIAL IS SE OH AND N WV. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS REFORMS ACROSS S ZONES AND WITH A LIGHT NE LLVL WIND...BKW SHOULD FG DOWN AS WELL. FOR THURSDAY...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE AGAIN FOR THE STRATUS TO MIX OUT S OF THE BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW AND LOW INVERSION. WILL WATCH FOR DECAYING MCS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FEELING IS MUCH OF THE DAY IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH EXTENT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS S ZONES IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW. TEMPERATURE AND STABILITY GRADIENT WILL FLUCTUATE IN POSITION BUT REMAIN MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A FRONT OSCILLATES OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT...AND UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES WILL FOCUS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE S...AS THEY CROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH THU AND FRI. PW VALUES ARE ACTUALLY PROGGED TO BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME...1.5 INCHES OR EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN ALMOST ABSENT ALTOGETHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS REFLECT THIS WITH MARGINAL RISK MAINLY S OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. MODELS AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH PEAK AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES INCLUDING THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT...SHOWING THE MAXIMUM AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ITS PEAK AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 5 INCHES. WILL CARRY MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. SMALL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... MVFR LOW STRATUS SCT TO BKN AT TIMES REMAINDER OF AFTN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MAY MAKE A RUN OUT OF KY INTO SW VA AND S WV...AFFECTING KBKW. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHO FOGS AND WHO GETS THE STRATUS. CURRENT THINKING IS N TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR OR WORSE FG WITH S TERMINALS LOW STRATUS. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD BRING KBKW DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO A PERIOD OF MORNING HZ...WITH SCT TO BKN MVFR/LOW END VFR CU AFTER 16Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND OR STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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