Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311922 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EDGES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK FLOW TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS SHOWING A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT TONIGHT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL CONVECTION AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES ITS BEST TO SLIP OUT OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY ENDS UP HANGING UP IN THE MTNS. THUS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...PREDOMINATELY E OF I79 AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PROGRESSION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW...INITIALL OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...VERY SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. TIMING OF THE LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD VARY. .AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR IN CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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