Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201840 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 240 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tonight. Weak disturbance Wednesday with a shower possible north.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 200 PM... Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions and light flow. A weak upper disturbance and frontal system in northwest flow aloft, will skirt the northern zones Wednesday. There is a modest return flow ahead of this system and modest instability across the north. The end result is that this system will mainly affect the northern half of the area with clouds late tonight and Wednesday, with just enough moisture, instability and dynamics ahead of the front to bring a few showers or a storm across the far north. However, nothing heavy or widespread is expected as the front itself will get hung up to our north. The central and south will just see some clouds Wednesday, but also a good deal of sunshine will also be present. Temperatures tonight will be down around 60 degrees with dry air still in place. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Much of the activity will diminish late Wednesday with the loss of heating and with the disturbance moving out. Not expecting widespread or dense fog for the most part tonight, given some increase in mid or higher clouds and some flow above the surface.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Upper level trough swings through on Wednesday, possibly providing some precipitation to northern portions of the area. Moisture begins arriving on Thursday in advance of the next system. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Models showing moisture/remains of a tropical system lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico into the region toward the end of the work week and/or over the weekend. Models are not in good agreement with the timing or placement of this system. Timing of the tropical system compared with a vigorous northern stream cold front will determine where heavy rain with this system falls. Several models are keeping the heaviest precipitation south of the area, but the Canadian is showing over 5 inches of rain across southern WV and southwest VA. Too early to say what will happen with confidence, but definitely bears watching. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Dry high pressure with light to near calm winds tonight, followed by a weak upper disturbance skirting across the north Wednesday. Mainly mid clouds and a few showers will accompany this system across the north Wednesday, while the central and south will only see some mid-high clouds. VFR conditions expected to prevail this period with clouds AOA 6000 feet Wednesday. Winds tonight will diminish to light westerly early, and again westerly 6 to 12 KTS on Wednesday. River valley fog will be shallow and scattered, mostly affecting EKN with a brief period of IFR 09Z-12Z, and MVFR at CRW 10Z-12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if winds decouple more and clouds are delayed. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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