Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051826 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1 PM UPDATE. AS HEAVY SNOWS PULL AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER STORM WARNING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AT 1 PM. 10 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BEGIN TO EXPIRE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AT 18Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE GROUND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N. A POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH. LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD VALLEY SEPARATION. OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS. BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z. NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003- 004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMV

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