Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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383 FXUS61 KRLX 231714 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 102 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday. A much stronger cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday... A weak cold front will move southward into the area late tonight and Saturday. Moisture and dynamics are limited with the front...so showers only possible during the daytime heating hours on Saturday. Will continue to go above MOS guidance south of the cold front on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1225 PM Friday... A weak cold front will sag and stall over the southern portion of the area and become non-existent. Mostly clouds will be associated with it. Only difference will be the cooler air behind it will filter in for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to move into the area by late in the afternoon on Monday and continue to cross the area Monday night. Moisture is lacking and should only see convection with the front as it passes. Temps will be noticeably cooler throughout. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 12:25 pm Friday... Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it. Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures are expected as well. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday... High pressure will keep VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Fog late tonight is questionable. Leaning toward only fog in some deeper valleys of the mountains. With a cold front coming in late tonight in the north...expect any fog there to not be overly dense and to dissipate early Saturday morning. Some MVFR clouds are possible right along the front Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog late tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Dense valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday morning, and then again Tuesday night. Low stratus is possible Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...RPY

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