Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231852 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 252 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY WILL CREATE. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD. FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH. TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...5TH NIGHT. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES. ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS 12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY

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