Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240243 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1043 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front exits area overnight. Much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 755 PM Monday... Vigorous short wave/cold front with heavy rain will lift quickly out of the northern mountains of West Virginia by 10 PM. Behind this will be large cyclonic flow around a highly amplified upper trough over the eastern third of the nation. This will provide widely scattered light showers into Tuesday with cooler temperatures. As of 1150 AM Monday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Cold frontal boundary at 1545Z across central KY, and pushing eastward, with area of heavier rain evident on radar. Front will push east across the CWA this afternoon and evening, exiting to the CWA later tonight. Expect an uptick in precipitation this afternoon and evening as it does so, along with continued gusty winds. Later tonight, general drying trend as front exits to the east of the area. Will still be some lingering showers, and plenty of cloud cover in the overnight hours A chance for showers, and cooler weather is expected on Tuesday, as an upper low/trough pushes into the region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Monday... Still a few showers possible late Tuesday night and on Wednesday, particularly across the north, as an upper trough develops and crosses the region. This will usher in cooler air, with the possibility of a few flakes across the higher terrain, although not a significant threat of snow, due to overall lack of moisture/good crystal growth. Temperatures Thursday morning will easily dip into the mid 30s for much of the lowlands, possibly warranting the need for frost advisories. Will keep a mention in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... High pressure with dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will move into the region over the weekend, providing yet another chance for rain showers. Behind the front, much cooler air, with the possibility of rain and snow showers across the higher terrain, and perhaps, a few flakes across some lowland locations. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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03Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday... As of 1040 PM Monday... Little change to forecast. As of 800 PM Monday... Strong upper disturbance and cold front will exit the northern mountains of WV by 10 pm. Behind the front, large cyclonic flow around upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will bring mainly MVFR ceilings, except higher mountain IFR ceilings, along with widely scattered light showers thru Tuesday. Winds southwest 10 to 15 KTS but up to 25 KTS mountain ridgetops. After 14Z, improving to VFR ceilings from west to east, but possibly lower in a passing shower. Southwest winds 10 to 20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR may be more widespread in the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H M H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H L L H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H L M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings if frost does not occur.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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