Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 072354 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 654 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure persists tonight. A cold front crosses early Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Wednesday... No major changes except an increase in the sky cover to the northwestern zones and some minor adjustments to the overnight lows. As of 219 PM Wednesday... A weaK high pressure will continue to provide dry and clear conditions tonight. Satellite images show widespread clearing over the region, and mid to upper clouds far away upstream. These clouds could reach southeast OH by Thursday morning. Clear skies, decoupled atmosphere and boundary layer winds at 5 to 10 knots, expect radiational cooling dropping temperatures into the low 30s. This could produce frost instead of fog. Low level ceilings could develop during the predawn hours early Thursday morning. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there in the lowlands. Still having to increase cloud cover from what the Blender provided as well as lowering highs a smidgen. A gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but clouds should linger. Clouds will gradually erode from SW to NE Saturday due to low level WAA. It will still remain chilly with little if any mixing from aloft to significantly boost temps. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM Wednesday... There exists considerable spread regarding how amplified the Sunday/Monday s/w trof is as it ejects out of the Plains. The Euro is much more amplified with a deepening surface low track into the upper Midwest versus GFS. Stuck close to the Forecast Builder which is a middle road solution. With the lingering cold air, suspect the very front end of this system will have a short lived wintry aspect. But all of these fine details will ultimately depend on track and amplitude. In the wake of this system, a broad upper trof will settle in across the easter half of the nature with subsequent cold shots slated just beyond the range of the extended. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Wednesday... Will expect an increase in cloud cover tonight with ceilings lowering, but remaining in the VFR category. Cold front arrives after 12Z Thursday, bringing an increase in winds that will gust 20-25kts upon frontal passage. Ceilings will break briefly during the afternoon, and stratus will settle back in behind the front, mostly in terms of a scattered deck prior to 00Z Friday FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.