Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170617 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 217 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid today. Cold front tonight into Friday. Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Thursday... Cirrus already on the increase ahead of surface and upper low moving through the Northern Plains. The first impulse associated with the upper air feature should kick off showers and thunderstorms across the Tri-state late this morning, with activity drifting NE through the afternoon. Decent instability across the area with the hot and humid air in place -- MLCape should be in the 1000-1500J/kg range. The CAPE profile is rather skinny and shear of 20-30kts is fairly marginal for strong to severe storms. However, with precipitable water values topping 2 inches, heavy rain is likely in mature convection. Flash flood guidance is generally 1.5-2.5 inches across the forecast area. The most likely area of heavy rain today -- across the Ohio River Valley and western lowlands of WV -- corresponds to the higher FFG so not planning a flash flood watch. Still...cannot rule out isolated issues with repetitive storms. Tonight, we should have a line of showers and thunderstorms move from west to east ahead of a cold front. Instability drops off quickly 00Z Friday, but precipitable water remains on the high side... so again strong to severe storms not expected but heavy rainfall is likely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... Ahead of an approaching cold front, moisture will increase to provide some isolated showers or storms. Models show the cold front will cross some time around 03Z Friday. Some storms may contain heavy showers as pwats will be around 2.2 inches. Although the probability for severe weather is marginal, there will be plenty of deep layered shear of about 40 knots, strong boundary layer convergence and sfc CAPE values exceeding 1600 J/Kg. With this moisture content any slow moving storm of training over the same areas could present a risk for water problems and isolated strong to severe storms. High pressure builds for the weekend to provide mostly clear skies and weak flow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... High pressure remains over the region through Sunday. Moisture will be in the increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. The cold front crosses some time later Wednesday to Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Thursday... Messy aviation forecast expected through the TAF period. For early this morning, clouds are on the increase, and flow is also picking up some across the west which reduces the potential for dense fog. However, across the northern mountains clouds and wind are less, so expecting fog at EKN and maybe CKB. Several areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Brief IFR will be possible in any developed shower or storm, but to early to pinpoint any timing on that so went with more general MVFR for now. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on overall trends, low on small scale specifics. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and coverage could vary. Will likely need amendments for IFR in storms later today and tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M M H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Lingering IFR possible in showers and storms early Friday morning. Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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