Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 172025 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 325 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system exits tonight. High pressure Sunday. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM Saturday... A developing sfc low pressure system will cross the area from southwest to northeast through this evening. This system will bring short periods of heavy snow across southeast OH, and northern WV through this evening. There is a Winter Weather advisory for these areas through 2 AM. South to southwest flow is causing a warm wedge west of the mountains where most pcpn is falling as liquid. Colder temperatures across southeast OH and the higher elevations of WV will see a mix bag of pcpn or all snow. A period of FZRA will be possible along the eastern slopes of WV due to cold air damming east of the mountains. Therefore, another Winter Weather advisory is in effect for FZRA and mix pcpn through 4 AM. A flood watch continues in effect for the southern coal fields, including Putnam and Kanawha counties of WV and extreme southwest VA through 4 AM Sunday. Used consensus of models with some weight of the HRRR models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... The warm front will push north across the area on Monday. Any precip amounts will be fairly light, so not expecting more issues with flooding from this wave. We will be well within the warm sector on Tuesday and temps will be climbing into the 80s...yes the 80s. Forecast temps are in the record high range for climate sites -- and could be flirting with record highs for the month of February as a whole. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Saturday... By mid week we will have a cold front pushing into the Ohio Valley from the west. Timing differences continue between the model guidance, but starting to look more like a late Wednesday afternoon or night passage. Have introduced thunderstorm possibility as well for this period as forecast soundings are indicating marginal instability. The front gets hung up and stalls and this could make for the possibility for more heavy rainfall through the end of the week. Still too early to tell at this time, but based on current antecedent conditions, flooding is looking like it may be a problem again. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 540 AM Saturday... A southern stream system will bring numerous showers across the area through tonight. Bufkit soundings suggest that there could be a mix bag of pcpn across the central and northern mountains with some FZRA mainly across the eastern slopes. Conditions VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate to IFR along these showers. Areas that receive snow will have lower visibilities. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset and deteriorating conditions in wintry precipitation may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY L H M M M M H H L M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M H M M L L M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M L M L L L L L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L M H M M L H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H L L M M H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for WVZ516-518- 520-522>524-526. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ007-009>011-017-019. Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ013>015- 024>026-033-034-515-516. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...None. VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...MPK/AB LONG TERM...MPK/AB AVIATION...ARJ

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