Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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733 FXUS61 KRLX 250119 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late in week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 920 PM Saturday... Minor flooding continues across portions of SE Ohio and NE Kentucky. The water is receding in many locations and flooding issues have ended in some locations. However, the Little Muskingum River at Bloomfield and the Tygarts Creek near Greenup continue to run high and some roads continue to remain closed. The water levels should continue to fall overnight. Latest radar from KRLX shows a line of showers extends from near Elkins southwest to near Charleston. Not sure how much of this precipitation is reaching the ground as none of the stations where the line passed over have reported any rain. Have introduced a light chance of showers across northeast parts of our forecast area for the next few hours. Otherwise, only made some minor tweaks to reflect current trends. As of 130 PM Saturday... Minor flooding continues across parts of SE Ohio and NE Kentucky, however in most areas water is receding and flooding issues should continue to dwindle. A broad upper level trough moving through the western Great Lakes will provide mild and mainly dry weather this weekend. Models do show a couple weak 500mb ripples moving through tonight and Sunday. Kept POPs dry, but did include some additional clouds. High and low temperatures will run generally 5-7 degrees cooler than normal for late June.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Cooler and drier in the short term period as upper shortwave trough and surface high pressure remain in control. Could be a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough pushes farther south into the region, but most areas should remain dry. Temperatures during the period actually look to be below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... High pressure will rebuild into the region mid week, for a return of dry and warm weather. However, a progressive pattern will take hold for the remainder of the period, along with increasing heat and humidity once again, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous again as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Saturday... Diurnal clouds have begun to dissipate VFR cumulus. Expect additional clouds should develop around 06Z as a mid-level system approaches the region from the west. Depending on the amount of clouds that develop, we could see some river valley fog early Sunday morning. Latest guidance suggests IFR or lower conditions will develop at EKN. However, confidence in these conditions is not very high. So have gone with some MVFR conditions at that location and nearby. Any fog and lower clouds that develop overnight should begin to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Believe diurnal clouds should once again develop after 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation tonight may be more widespread -- or not occur at all due to clouds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JSH

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