Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 112044 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 344 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front moves across the area tonight. Strong upper trough brings cold air and snow showers Tuesday. Another system arrives by late week with another chance for snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM Monday... The nice start to the workweek will quickly give way to the reality of winter as snow showers return. A warm front lifted north across the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. A trailing cold front will begin to slide east overnight tonight. This front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the entire region. Along with this front, enough moisture will be in place that some snow showers will be likely. Expect to see some light snow flying by tomorrow morning across the entire area. As this front moves east, blustery condition will set in. Lake enhanced snow showers will reduce visibilities with any heavier squalls during the day. Areas where these streamers set up could pick up a small amount of accumulating snows across the lowlands. Upslope snow in the higher elevations will add to any snowfall accumulations. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these higher elevations where a combination of dangerous wind chill, snow and blowing snow will be more likely. Overnight lows will in the lower to mid 30s. Highs on Tuesday will occur in the morning and fall throughout the day. This is due to the arctic air filtering in behind the cold front. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will be in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Monday... As the upper trough moves away, northwest flow again returns with models starting to agree on narrow corridors of higher RH stemming from Lake Michigan and reaching into the region. Should these corridors of high RH come to fruition, there would be a corresponding corridor of higher snowfall - especially in the mountains. Given the fickle nature of these narrow corridors, though, have opted to spread accumulation throughout the mountains and in areas immediately adjacent to the west with somewhat lower amounts. Gusty northwest winds will again increase with these snow showers, and cold air advection will drop temperatures further. Wednesday morning temperatures are looking to be in the teens in the lowlands, and in the single digits in the mountains. The aforementioned winter weather and wind chill advisories extend through Wednesday morning to cover these hazards. Went with model blends for temperatures through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 335 PM Monday... Another system swings through during this period. However. models are somewhat different with the timing and the track of the feature. Because of this uncertainty, have gone with the model blend for the forecast. At this time, models are converging a surface low tracking squarely through this area, attached to yet another clipper-type trough aloft. Heavier snowfall would therefore be across the northern counties with upslope enhancement. Cold air remains in place for Thursday and Friday with warmer weather anticipated for Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110 PM Monday... VFR conditions will remain in place through the much of the day into the early overnight hours. However, with an approaching cold front, ceiling will quickly lower. MVFR to IFR can be anticipated by early to mid morning. This is thanks to areas of snow showers and gusty winds. Near the Ohio River, could see a rain/snow mix initially by Tuesday morning before becoming all snow. Gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage and snow squalls. This will further reduce visibilities. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Arrival of snow showers and lower ceilings early tomorrow morning may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Scattered snow showers and gusty winds will result in continued areas of IFR through Wednesday morning. Another round of snow showers may reduce visibilities by late week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ518-520-522>526. Wind Chill Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ518-520-522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/MC NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JB

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