Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250003 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 803 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 800 PM Wednesday... Tweaked sky grids for the next 6 hours. Expecting clouds from dying MCS to cover the area tonight. Rest of forecast remains representative. Previous discussion below... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Generally quiet for the remainder of the afternoon with just some flat cu with some cirrus thrown in for good measure. For tonight we will be tracking a mid level feature moving across the area. Models are by and large in agreement on any line of shra/tsra weakening on approach. So...will continue with previous forecast idea of chance pops and roll with coverage wording. With this feature moving across with some clouds amid a strengthening low level flow...dense fog should be confined to the more sheltered mountain valleys and hollows. This disturbance moves E of the area by midday Thursday with mid level drying left in its wake to keep things warm and primarily dry for the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... Hot and humid weather expected again for late August. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Any severe weather should remain north of our area though will not rule out any isolated water issues especially near the more juicy air in Ohio. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 7 PM Wednesday... 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday... High pressure provides widespread VFR conditions through at least 06Z. Models show h925 level winds around 20 knots. Satellite images show the remnants of a dying MCS which may result in mostly cloudy skies with ceilings 6000 to 70000 kfeet and light rain if any. These conditions create good ventilation preventing river vally dense fog formation tonight. However, deep protected valleys like EKN may see some fog during the predawn hours. VFR thru 06z amid some flat cu and cirrus. VFR conditions will prevail Thursday under high pressure. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western slopes. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...ARJ

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