Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230024 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 824 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY CONDITIONS UNTIL MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR SHELTERED AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY... ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE. ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GIVING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SLIM CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITIES IF WINDS CALM FASTER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ/JW LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JW

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