Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220011 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 811 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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800 PM UPDATE... RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS. WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS. HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND WED. MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER. MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED AFTERNOON. CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE WED. SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE N. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG. CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE IT CLEARS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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