Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280549 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 149 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of convection are expected this holiday weekend, until a cold front crosses Sunday, followed by another Monday morning. Additional cold fronts and showers cross through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1030 PM Saturday... Convection starting to wind down. MCS just misses us to the south. Will have to see if BL dew points return for severe wx potential Sunday - the MCS may ingest them causing our threat for severe wx Sunday to be lower than currently progged. As of 750 PM Saturday... A messy evolution to the convection tonight which is difficult to quantify with a PoP. Some places are just getting hammered with slow moving convection while others are lucking out and remaining completely dry. A few severe storms though the potential for those has greatly decreased in the last half an hour as the area has been worked over and cloud cover has all but stopped any additional heating. The slow moving nature of the storms and torrential rainfall rates warrant an elevated risk for flash flooding. So will continue with both severe and flash flood watches for the time being. As of 430 PM Saturday... Atmosphere continues to destabilize with plenty of stronger storm beginning to develop. Issued a severe thunderstorm watch. As of 230 PM Saturday... Cap is finally breaking over the northern tier of counties where the better clearing has taken place over the last couple of hours. Still looking at a high CAPE and moderate bulk shear environment, so expect the activity to continue on the upswing heading into the late afternoon and evening. So far, the pace has been more than manageable, but still have a few hours of heating left and we have already hit the convective temperature. Have both the hail and wind threat going forward. No changes to the SPC slight risk for us in terms of severe. Meanwhile, precipitable water values pushing 1.50in have warranted the flash flood watch in place over much of the southern portion of the CWA. Flash flood guidance values still high, so thresholds for additional rain down in these areas is low. Repetitive rounds of storms could easily become troublesome. Have tailored the POPs for a lull in the activity late this evening and early tonight, before the front swings back northward again as a warm front. Pre dawn convection expected to move north through the area, and back into the slight risk area for Sunday as the cold front passes again. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Saturday... During this period, models have the upper trough lifting out of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and becoming a closed upper low over eastern Canada. This will finally push the frontal system out of our area during Monday and allow high pressure with drier air to move in later Monday and Monday night. Thus, look for decreasing rain chances from west to east on Monday, with temperatures returning to near normal with much lower humidities. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday... This period features a large upper level low over eastern Canada with a long wave trough over the eastern United States. This spells a cooler trend for the Ohio Valley, with reinforcing cold front dropping across the area through mid week. Some showers will accompany these fronts, but no heavy rains are expected. Upper ridging and high pressure will return for the later part of the work week with dry weather and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Bulk of convection has died off across the area. Areas of MVFR and IFR/LIFR conditions linger in post rain stratus and fog, with IFR/LIFR most prevalent across parts of southeast Ohio and northern WV. Expect general improvement to MVFR and VFR after 14Z. However, showers and thunderstorms will ramp back up again, particularly after 18Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions in storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M L H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L M M M M H M L AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible early Monday, and at times throughout the week in showers and storms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008- 013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ102-103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/26 NEAR TERM...JW/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...SL

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