Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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973 FXUS61 KRLX 241042 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 642 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Sunday... Per current trend, updated for less fog and quicker dissipation this morning. As of 205 AM Sunday... And the beat goes on with high pressure at the surface and aloft in firm control. With drier air in place, dense river valley fog not as widespread this morning. After morning fog, wall to wall sunshine is expected. With another day of sunshine, drier air and good mixing, have increased high temperatures a degree or two this afternoon. Highs will likely reach 90 degrees in more areas this afternoon than yesterday. Under clear skies and with very light winds at best Sunday tonight, some more river valley fog can be expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in the short term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Cold front pushes into the area in response to an upper level trough digging into the northern Great Lakes. Runs of the long term models returns lower POPs upon passage, with a mainly dry frontal passage scenario at this point in the forecast. A secondary closed low aloft digs southeastward into the lakes and reinforces the cooler airmass for the weekend with another cold front and resultant 850mb temperatures down in the lower single digits. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 12Z Sunday thru 12Z Monday... As of 630 AM Sunday... High pressure continues. Per current trend, will have IFR river valley fog dissipating 12-13Z. Otherwise, VFR with just some thin cirrus and light easterly winds today. IFR river valley fog Sunday night may be a bit more widespread and earlier, but still after 06Z, as models increase low level moisture again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on timing onset of dense fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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