Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300737 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 337 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The line of showers and thunderstorms that moved across Ohio and Northern Kentucky overnight...is dissipating as it gets to the Ohio River early this morning. Expect little will survive east of the Ohio River before it dissipates by dawn. The very weak cool front that generated the convection...identified mainly by lower dewpoints behind it...is still over western Ohio and western Kentucky early this morning. However...this front will act in a typical summer time fashion...where the upper support and deeper moisture has continued to track east ahead of the surface front. We expect that after any early morning fog dissipates...and with diurnal heating later this morning and afternoon...the surface front will literally jump eastward across the area as drier air aloft mixes down. The front will likely jump through our western zones around mid morning...through central WV by early afternoon...and through the mountains by late afternoon...with winds turning northwesterly and bringing some drier air in behind the front. With the drying out process aloft ahead of the front...we expect just mainly widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to work eastward with the front. Will confine most pops with the front to the east of the Ohio River today...with best chance in the mountains in the afternoon heat. Otherwise...cold advection is lacking behind this front...and with more sunshine today...temperatures will actually be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday...in the lower to mid 80s. So going on the high end of guidance. For tonight...look for clearing skies and decreasing winds to enhance radiational cooling in the drier air...so temperatures will actually be cooler tonight. look for lows ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south with some late night fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley fog to contend with. As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 230 AM UPDATE... Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier trend taking hold. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday... Til 12Z Monday. Quite variable conditions. Showers and isolated thunder will be confined to northeast Kentucky...extreme southeast Ohio and far southwest WV...affecting HTS before dissipating around 09z. Because of the showers or variable cloud cover...look for lifr fog to affect all the major terminals overnight except at BKW. Most of the fog will be river valley fog. After 12z...fog mixes out by 14z. Cold front crossing the area during the day may combine with diurnal heating to generate a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm after 16z. These will be east of the Ohio river and not enough coverage to go with more than VCTS in CRW...CKB...EKN...BKW. Otherwise...VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000 feet agl outside of any convection. light and variable winds will become northwest behind the front at 5 to 8 kts. After 00Z basically vfr mostly clear. Any fog redevelopment will likely be after 06z. Winds will again drop off with loss of heating. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low overnight. Medium Monday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage and intensity of fog this morning may vary due to any showers or cloud cover. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ/30 AVIATION...JMV

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