Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240305 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1005 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday. A cold front crosses Saturday with little moisture. Colder Sunday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1000 PM Thursday... Temps have been falling quickly this evening as expected, particularly away from urban centers. No additional changes needed from the earlier update. As of 610 PM Thursday... Tweaked hourly temps this evening to show a rapid drop, particularly in valleys and hollows. Some patchy mid level clouds will swing through tonight, in an otherwise quiet synoptic regime. Overnight lows were lowered, especially in the typical cold spots, hedging a bit below the coldest guidance. The lone exception being the high mountain ridges, where any fall this evening will stabilize and perhaps rise by morning as low level WAA commences. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Thursday... WAA continues Friday night and delays diurnal cooling somewhat in response to an approaching short-wave trough and high pressure sliding to the east. The passage of a cold front Saturday morning will bring temperatures back down. Models continue to differ in available moisture coincident with favorable forcing near the front, however there is decent consistency with CAA/upslope showers Saturday night. So, between cold frontal passage and upslope, have opted for slight chance PoPs across the north and mountains with a chance during upsloping across the northern mountains. Rain will transition to mixed precip and snow in the mountains as cold air settles in, and will taper off entirely by daybreak Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... High pressure dominates the first three or so days of next week. Southwest flow brings a promising warming trend into mid-week ahead of another system. Models agree on a shortwave, perhaps cut-off aloft, embedded within otherwise zonal flow though timing has been inconsistent among models. So, have opted to follow a general blend of models with low confidence resulting in light shower activity Wednesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 615 PM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Some patchy mid deck will move across this evening as a weak upper level system crosses. Light westerly low level flow becomes southwesterly on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of predawn dense fog may sneak into HTS/PKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 11/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...30

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