Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250627 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 227 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with improving weather expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230am Tuesday... The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build down from the Great Lakes. This will allow us to enjoy the first of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with cooler temperatures and a drier airmass. The only issue will be early morning localized patchy fog and low clouds that linger for a few hours past daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Monday... Models have an upper ridge in the west and upper trough in the east. Canadian high pressure with cooler and drier air will dominate into Wednesday, continuing a respite from the heat and humidity of typical summer. The surface high shifts east Thursday with a marked increase in heat and humidity on increasing southerly flow. Models strongly agree a rather strong cold front will drop southeast within this upper regime, moving through the area Thursday night and Friday morning. Scattered showers and storms will increase Thursday well ahead of the front, especially over southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. Showers and storms will become more widespread Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front slides southeast through the area. Behind the front, an unusually cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during Friday with showers and storms ending from northwest to southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... This weekend will be dominated by Canadian high pressure as northwest flow aloft continues. There will be an increase in high temperatures over the weekend with abundant sunshine, but continued drier air under the high will still keep the more typical summer time humidities at bay. By Monday, the high shifts east with the heat and humidity beginning to increase, but storms are expected to hold off for Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Tuesday... Periods of IFR/LIFR in dense fog and/or low stratus will be possible through at least 12Z. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z. Kept persistence based on previous nights, fog across the north, and stratus across the south. Conditions improve by mid-morning, then widespread VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day. Likely will have the threat of mainly fog , with some low stratus again Tuesday night...starting about or shortly after 06Z/Wed. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areas that get fog vs. stratus may differ tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions long thunderstorms likely Thursday into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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