Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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751 FXUS61 KRLX 281820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. This system will affect the area through the work week, before pulling out over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. H500 charts show a vorticity max producing a front for tonight into Thursday. Despite of good forcing, low level moisture is not enough to sustain organize convection. Expect periods of showers or storms which each h500 vorticity maximum through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in KY Friday before drifting north over into the weekend. This spells a cool and showery regime, most notably across the northern half of the CWA. As with previous forecasts, the highest pops remain across these locales. We will have to watch for the potential for robust tsra during the afternoon give the shear profiles and mid level lapse rates. Diurnally driven instability accentuated with any breaks in the clouds will ultimately determine just how strong any cells would become. As mentioned, the upper low will pull north into the OH Valley on Saturday. As a result, the upper low will loosen its grip over the region with improving weather. However, there will still be some scattered shra to content with over parts of SE OH. Temps were generally close to previous numbers with the coolest daytime highs across western zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... The pesky upper low will be out of our hair Sunday. In its wake the region will experience rising heights and warming conditions, potentially to well above normal once again next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Cloudiness will thicken from west to east as a short wave associated with a broad low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The low itself will move south with center overhead from Wednesday through Friday. VFR conditions will prevail outside scattered showers mainly west. Models spread the PCPN gradually east as the area remains unsettled through the period. Southeast flow should allow low status at BKN overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of mvfr cigs across eastern slopes and resulting impacts at KBKW may differ from forecast. Timing of showers this afternoon and evening and resulting restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Areas of ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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