Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231046 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 646 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses the mountains this morning. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM Wednesday... Cold front continues progressing through the forecast area this morning with only light returns noted on radar. As the boundary continues pushing east, drier air will filter in with showers tapering off through the morning in the mountains. Surface high pressure will build in through the day and cloud cover will scatter out in the post-frontal airmass. Expect pleasantly warm temperatures in a far less humid atmosphere with temps dipping into the 50s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... Upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will bring much cooler and drier air southward from a large high pressure system centered over central Canada. There will be one note worthy but moisture starved short wave rotating southeast across the Great Lakes into the northern mid Atlantic states Thursday, but any light shower activity from this features is expected to be minimal and remain northeast of our CWA. Overall, it will be nice weather, with the much cooler and less humid conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Most of the extended period will remain dry with a slow warming trend, although there will be a slight chance for showers Saturday across the higher mountain terrain. This will be due mainly to a temporary moist influx of low level moisture on easterly flow off the Atlantic as the aforementioned high pressure system shifts into eastern Canada. By Sunday this moist flow is cut off as a low rides up off the southeast coast. A pattern change is expected for early next week, as the eastern U.S. upper trough lifts out and another upper trough develops over the center of the nation. This will bring an increase in temperatures, moisture and dynamics for scattered showers and storms Tuesday, as the aforementioned surface high pressure system finally shifts off the east coast and winds turn southerly. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 640 AM Wednesday... Non-mountain terminals are VFR this morning and a cold front continues progressing eastward across the area. This boundary should pass KBKW and KEKN by around 23/13-14Z with MVFR to occasional IFR cigs possible until the front clears. Bringing cigs at those terminals to VFR after 23/14Z and expecting stratus to gradually lift and scatter out through the day with VFR prevailing and northwest winds at the surface. Surface high builds in through the day and low-level winds should subside within a few hours after sunset. Given a lack of flow at the surface, residual moisture from earlier rains, and only passing clouds, expecting potentially IFR river valley fog to develop Wednesday night into Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of cigs may vary. Timing and density of river valley fog Thursday morning may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... River valley fog possible each morning through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...DTC

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