Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220525 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues through Sunday. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses Monday and Monday night, with much cooler weather by midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As 120 AM Sunday... Forecast on track. As of 1000 PM Saturday... No changes. As of 200 PM Saturday... Intervals of cirrus through Sunday as high pressure shifts to the east. Patchy dense river valley fog overnight, but thinking the combination of cirrus and boundary layer winds will keep much of it confined to the mountain valleys. The smoke plume from the large industrial site fire in Parkersburg should back more toward the north overnight and perhaps into the city of Parkersburg. Should more decoupling occur than forecast, poor ventilation rates and lack of dispersion overnight could result in reductions in visibility. Having said that, this is a low confidence scenario, especially considering the uncertainty regarding how much smoldering will exist overnight. Overnight lows were hedged a few degrees below guidance with highs tomorrow on the warm side of the guidance envelope.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Saturday... Models showing an upper level low pulling moisture into the region on Monday. Still some timing differences in the timing of the rain bands with this system, but the overall pattern is in fairly good agreement. Cold front should push through late Monday/Monday evening. Some models showing rainfall amounts from 0.75 to 1.50 inches, while others show 0.75 to 2.50 inches. With the area being dry recently, flash flood guidance is generally in the 2.25 to 3 inch range in 6 hours, so should be able to handle the rainfall. Will keep an eye on this however. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM Saturday... Cooler air will move into the area behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trough moves over the area. This trough will also provide some moisture and lift, allowing for a chance of showers. With colder air aloft, could see some snow flakes in the higher elevations of the northern WV mountains. High pressure will build over the area for Thursday and Friday. Another strong cold front can then be expected over the weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Sunday... High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions through the Sunday night. Satellite images show few to scattered cirrus moving across the area overnight. Smoke plume from fire just south of PKB had will likely shift northwestward and lower across the area tonight as winds turn very light southeasterly. Should this occur, vsby and/or cig restrictions may be realized given the lowering ventilation rate and developing low level inversion. So, for now, will code 4SM in smoke for PKB overnight due to very low confidence on impact of and duration of this plume. Otherwise, the NAM and RAP models show boundary layer winds of 15 to 20 knots from the south. This winds will keep good ventilation preventing dense valley fog formation overnight. The exception will be at site EKN which is more protected where IFR visibilities of ceilings are expected during the 10Z-13Z time period. Widespread VFR conditions are expected on Sunday as the high pressure drift east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High except at PKB. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Smoke may restrict vsby and/or cigs more than forecast at PKB tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... A strong cold front will cross the area Monday and Monday night. IFR conditions and gusty winds can be expected along the heavier showers or storms.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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