Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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076 FXUS61 KRLX 250820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 420 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas today, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard through Wednesday night. Next cold front Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Stacked low pressure system moves northeastward from the Carolinas to the middle Atlantic coast this period. Spiraling bands of showers around the aging occlusion move west and northwest through WV this morning, but then dissipate this afternoon as the system gets farther from the forecast area. The chance for showers becomes confined to the northern WV mountains by tonight, and then goes away altogether overnight tonight. Winds diminish tonight in a cull between the exiting low pressure system, and a new frontal system extending up and down the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning. This may allow valley fog to form. Moisture lingering below an inversion may result in low clouds and fog over the mountains. Temperatures close to a near term blend and a little lower than previous for highs today. Previous forecast close to guidance and accepted for lows tonight, except lower in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... High pressure builds into the region for Wednesday, for overall dry and warm conditions. Rather dry airmass expected to be in place should result in an overall sunny sky, and quick warm up in temperatures, with much of the lowlands topping out in the lower to mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Focus then shifts to a cold front which will move into the region late Thursday afternoon or evening. Still expecting showers and thunderstorms, but still thinking severe potential will be somewhat limited, particularly if timing of the frontal boundary slows down further. Nevertheless, there is the potential for heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds making it to the surface, although, no widespread severe is expected at this time. If there is any change in the timing of this boundary, the story on this could change however. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Focus this weekend shifts to a developing and strengthening low pressure system near the Gulf. Warm frontal boundary will lift north across the region on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms as it does so. In addition, it will be rather hot and humid for this time of year, with dew points rising into the 60s, and max temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands, as good southerly flow/high moisture content air makes its way into the region out ahead of this approaching low. Any storms that develop during this time period will have heavy downpours, due to the high moisture content, pw values progged to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches. Strong cold front with system progged to move through the region early next week. Although still several days out, this is looking to be a major system this weekend into early next week, and will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... An inversion will keep MVFR stratocu in the mountains much of the time, with breaks at EKN overnight, and then breaks likely at BKW Tuesday night. The lowlands are likely to have MVFR morning cu Tuesday morning. Patchy MVFR mist may start to form Tuesday night. Surface flow will be light northeast. Flow aloft will be moderate southeast overnight, and then back to northeast while becoming light by Tuesday afternoon, and then light north to northwest Tuesday night, as low pressure moves slowly up the east coast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR / low MVFR stratus in the WV mountain slopes could vary. Formation of fog or mist Tuesday night may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M M L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.