Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 090900 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 400 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Friday... Cold weather has settled into the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. As an upper level trough passes today, expecting scattered flurries or snow showers across the lowlands with no accumulation. Snow will be a bit heavier across the northern mountainous counties of WV, where 1-3 inches is expected. Heights begin to rise again across the west this afternoon, which should start to break up the clouds. Surface high pressure begins nosing in late tonight, shutting down any lingering mountain snow showers. A relatively stiff breeze tonight into Friday will create wind chill values in the 10s and 20s across the lowlands, with the highest ridges of the mountains dipping a few degrees below zero for the wind chill. Used a blend of ECMWF MOS and previous forecast for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 355 AM Friday... Continued cold under high pressure through Sunday. A system approaches Sunday increasing temps and precipitation chances. Cold air may linger especially over SE Ohio before temps warm above freezing. So may see some light fzra there Sunday evening and into early Monday. Strong 850mb flow should scour out any remaining cold air changing precip to all rain by Monday morning. Models in fairly good agreement with this system though minor differences in timing could drastically change forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... Stratus deck beginning to lower, and expect all TAF sites to drop into MVFR and remain there into midday. Lower ceilings -- into IFR -- expected in the mountains. Included some snow showers in all TAFS -- although outside of EKN probably not much more than flurries. Clouds will gradually lift and break up from the SW through the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/09/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H L M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L M L M H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M H M M M L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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