Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291807 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 207 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER CELLS. FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEN...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND FLOW SHOULD BECOME CALM AT MOST SITES. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES UNDER PATCHY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS WE LOOSE HEATING. MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SHORTWAVE OR OTHER MECHANISM TO ENHANCE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...DECREASE POPS BY 06Z TO VERY ISOLATED THROUGH 15Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CU UPSTREAM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. IFR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LIKE AROUND EKN...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LIKE CKB. FLOW COULD TURN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR IFR LOW STRATUS AT BKW OVERNIGHT. CODED LOW CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CODED VCTS AT FEW SITES BUT ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH SITE WILL BE AFFECTED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED. .AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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