Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260537 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Several upper level disturbances pass next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Friday... Quiet weather on tap, with upper level high centered over the Central Appalachians. Models trying to show a chance of an isolated t-shower this afternoon...but with the upper high right over us opted to keep POPs below 15. Remaining on the humid side, with dewpoints struggling to drop below 70 across the lowlands. Used a blend of bias-corrected ECMWF MOS and bias-corrected MAV for lows, and a mixture of the National Blend and bias-corrected SREF for todays high. Overall this resulted in only very minor changes to previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As 330 PM Thursday... No changes necessary...a fairly quiet pattern. Hot and humid weather to continue across the region...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly during peak heating hours...with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Heat indices over the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As 330 PM Thursday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward towards the US mainland, however, quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well defined. Each subsequent run has been moving the system eastward posing less of a threat to our area. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge as it flattens. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Friday... Relatively low confidence in fog formation early this morning. Main aviation models all try to give everyone dense fog, but cannot ignore persistence and pattern which are not all that conducive to widespread fog. In the end, went with IFR at EKN...and MVFR at other lowland sites. Do expect some 2-3kft clouds to pop up shortly after sunrise in the mixing...but should be scattered. Otherwise some mid level cumulus today before becoming mostly clear again tonight. Will likely have the same fog concerns tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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