Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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782 FXUS61 KRLX 291035 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level troughiness will keep the weather somewhat unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE... Accounted for showers scattered about WV early this morning, which played further havoc with the low clouds and fog, otherwise forecast on track. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Widespread low clouds and fog are likely to take most if not all of the morning to burn off and lift out. Next in a series of upper level short wave troughs crosses southern portions of the area midday and this afternoon. Hence PoPs increase from the southwest. This short wave is out ahead of main trough axis, which itself approaches the forecast area late today and tonight. Forcing associated with it enters the middle Ohio Valley toward this evening, so associated convection approaching late today will tend to diminish over the middle Ohio Valley as the sun sets. Nonetheless, will carry a chance overnight as the feature generates some low level convergence as it crosses. PW values approaching two inches with these features, and overall light deep layer flow, support locally heavy downpours. With the light flow, and modest heating today, the threat for severe weather is limited. Temperatures close to inherited forecast and current guidance, except used the MET to lower highs south a bit, based on the short wave trough further limiting opportunity for sunshine and heating there.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest in the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Using a combination of WPC and consensus models...indicated building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front approaches from the west.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Areas of fog and low clouds early this morning will likely take the entire morning to thin out, the stratus mixing into stratocu and then finally into an afternoon cu field 4-5 kft. The next in a series of frequent upper level short wave troughs will combine with whatever daytime heating that can be mustered after burning off the morning low clouds to produce showers and thunderstorms in the area this afternoon, coverage too low to mention in the TAFs. Yet another will keep the chance for a shower or thunderstorm going overnight tonight. Fog and low clouds are likely to form again overnight tonight, but with higher clouds and possible precipitation, predictability of associated IFR conditions is low. Light and variable surface flow will continue beneath light northwest flow aloft, which will become light mainly southwest late today. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog and low clouds quite variable early this morning, not to mention timing of burning off of fog and lifting of ceilings through midday today. The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight tonight is equally dicey, depending upon higher clouds and precipitation. A thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions this afternoon and / or tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and / or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms mainly, but not exclusively, in the afternoons and evenings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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