Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220001 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 801 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE... OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. KRLX AND SURROUNDING RADARS DEPICTING ECHOES ALOFT BUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NOT MUCH MAKING IT BELOW ROUGHLY 10KFT AGL AT THIS POINT IN TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE THINKING FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRYING TO FIRE TO THE WEST OVER KY BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BIT BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO SURVIVE...BUT THE COLUMN WILL STILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP. KEEPING ANY POPS QUITE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE WEST FOR THIS REASON. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 15Z...CRW BY 18Z...AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. H500 SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SOME PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...SO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z. LIKELY POPS THEN DRAG ACROSS CWA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE FRONT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WANES WITH TIME. SINCE RAIN WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...QPF LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND .25 INCH. WITH CAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG AND SOME FAVORABLE TIMING...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. NO CHANCE OF SEVERE THOUGH AS SHEAR IS PRETTY MUCH NONEXISTENT. SHRA SHOULD EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BOUNDARY AND HAVE A DRY CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING THOUGHT OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO WELL-CLUSTERED NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY BUILD IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE MORNING AND TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOWLANDS ENDING IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OTHERWISE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW END OF VFR THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...50/CL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JM

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