Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230717 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 317 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MIGRATES NORTHEAST TODAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAINS...SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY IS OUT OF THE AREA WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE ALL VERY CLOSE SO WENT WITH AN BLEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...5TH NIGHT. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES. ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS 12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP WEST TO EAST. TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. IF FOG FORMS IT COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H L L L L L H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JS NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...FB/MZ

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