Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250134 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 931 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...LOWERED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH RIVER. FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FUSED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...CLEARING LAST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS WELL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG SHOULD FORM FIRST AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH FOG CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A RISING CUMULUS DECK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING CLOUDS COULD VARY. TIMING OF FOG FORMING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L H M M M L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

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