Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151741 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 141 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... Just some very isolated showers through this afternoon across the Southern Forecast Area and along the mountains. High pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry through Wednesday. However, moist soils from the recent rainfall, combined with clearing skies and light winds will likely make for thick valley fog overnight. Locally dense fog could make for a tough commute through the early morning hours, but any fog will burn off by the middle of tomorrow morning. Tomorrow should be partly clouds with near average high temperatures for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Weak ridging should keep us dry though shower activity should increase as an approaching upper level trough arrives Friday. Best chance for organized convection would be Thursday evening with rather high PWs in the 2.5" range with dynamics on the weaker side of the spectrum. This period will need to be monitored, so will headline in the HWO. Shower activity should linger into Friday evening before decreasing overnight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... By Saturday morning, showers should be relegated to the mountains with drier weather for the beginning of next week as surface high pressure builds. A mid level wave passes Sunday morning, so there may be a temporary increase in activity then. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Tuesday... High pressure begins pushing into the area this afternoon. Clouds will be on the decrease and light winds will continue through the forecast period. With the wet soils from recent rainfall combined with the clear skies and light winds, dense valley fog is expected overnight through early Wednesday morning. Even included some IFR fog at BKW, but less confidence there than other sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog overnight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week Thursday. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning this week depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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