Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262352 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 745 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LINE OF SHOWERS NEARLY RIGHT ALONG WAVY FRONT CENTER-CUTTING CWA AT 18Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER AN APPRECIABLE BREAK. STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER E OF THE FRONT IN THE SKINNY CAPE. SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS. FRONT WILL CROSS EKN AND BKW AROUND 20Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS ENTIRELY BY 22Z /6PM/. THE TRICK OF THE TAIL IS WHERE THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS...IT APPEARED TO BE S-CNTRL TN BASED ON THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES. THIS WAVE PASSES S OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS DELAYS THE END OF THE RAIN A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH IS AROUND 00Z OHIO RIVER BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL 09Z OR SO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DELAYED SOME ALSO BECAUSE OF POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ONE HALF INCH TOPS...HAVE HAD AS LITTLE AS JUST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL LINE. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP LOWLAND TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH IF ANY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STAYING BELOW FREEZING FRI...DESPITE THE COLD COLUMN. THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BUT THIS INCREASES TO A LIKELIHOOD LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE EVEN OVER THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. KEPT MINIMAL MAINLY ELEVATION BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST. USED A BLEND OF MET...MAV AND RAW NAM FOR 3-HRLY TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR HIGHS ON FRI. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING CAN THEN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN WV...OHIO...AND KENTUCKY. A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIFT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CUMULUS FILLING BACK IN OVER OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES WILL VARY IN RAIN THIS EVENING. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING/CLEARING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/27/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H L H H L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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