Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 150850 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 350 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak wave crosses today. A clipper system passes north of the area tonight. A weak system brings some light rain Sunday afternoon and night. Another clipper crosses Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 350 AM Friday... A transient inverted surface trough near the mountains, ahead of an upper level short wave trough, may get the low level moisture depth just deep enough for light snow showers there, especially as the top of the cloud cools into the favored crystal growth temperatures later this morning. The upper level short wave pushes a cold front through late today. Strengthening westerly upslope flow in its wake, together with the short wave, continues the chance for snow showers in the northern mountains later today and tonight, and even back across the far northern tier of the forecast area for a time this evening, in deeper moisture associated with stronger mid level forcing. Any snow accumulation will be limited to the higher mountainous terrain and windward slopes, where an inch or two is possible. Winds will strengthen and become gusty in the wake of the front later today and tonight, with peak gusts around 20 mph across the lowlands this afternoon, diminishing tonight, but gusts increasing to around 40 mph across the higher ridges tonight. Low level cold advection behind the front this evening quickly reverses to warm advection overnight. Ridge top temperatures level off, even increase as a result, keeping wind chills from getting any lower than minus five or so there. Temperatures were adjusted a little upward early this morning, and again tonight, in an atmosphere that remains well mixed until overnight tonight. Trended a little higher with dewpoints early this morning into today.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Friday... Overall, warmer and drier over the weekend. Any lingering snow showers will taper off by early Saturday morning across the northern mountains, as drier air takes hold. High pressure, with a warm southerly flow, and building upper heights, will allow temperatures Saturday and Sunday to top out in the mid to upper 40s. A weak disturbance crossing on Sunday, will allow for light rain showers, but overall, minimal impacts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM Friday... Warmer temperatures, along with unsettled weather for the long term period. Another system will affect the area in the Monday night through Tuesday night time frame. Enough warm air will be in place that all precipitation should start out as rain, but transition to a light rain/snow mix across the northern mountains late Tuesday night. Gusty winds expected with this system, particularly Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure with dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with another system at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 115 AM Friday... A weak wave crossing overnight and Friday will maintain the widespread stratocu deck, near 4 kft across the lowlands, but MVFR in and near the mountains through Friday morning, with flurries or light snow showers possible. Any snow should not cause persistent visibility restrictions. Ceilings may lift above MVFR in the mountains, and even break up across parts of the middle Ohio Valley late Friday, as the wave moves off to the east. However, upslope west flow developing in the wake of a cold front crossing late Friday, will likely cause ceilings to lower to MVFR in the mountains Friday night, with lowland SCT-BKN stratocu up around 4 kft. Light and variable surface flow overnight will gradually freshen from the west-southwest Friday, and then become gusty once the cold front passes late Friday, Surface winds will become west- northwest in the mountains Friday night. Light southwest flow aloft overnight will become moderate west Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocu could vary. Snow showers may bring MVFR to IFR visibility in the northern WV mountains Friday night. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L H M L M L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in heavier snow showers overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.