Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211410 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure into Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Monday... Added mention of isolated showers up north per radar trends. Also nudged a slight chance of precip into our northern CWA this afternoon as a weak short wave passes to the north much like the mid shift went with but just a tad more south. As of 610 AM Monday... Starting off today with less river valley fog. As of 325 AM Monday... With weak high pressure in control today and tonight, the biggest effect on our weather will be lowering maximum temperatures by 1 to 2 degrees due to the eclipse this afternoon. Still, under abundant sunshine, temperatures will be near the 90 degree mark for a high today. There may be just a bit more clouds with an isolated shower possible over our far northwestern zones this afternoon due to a weak upper disturbance, and over east facing slopes of the northern mountains due to the elevated heat source, but these will have little effect on max temperatures. Most areas will be dry. For tonight, high pressure does slide eastward, but still controls things with a tranquil and mild night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Monday... As the uppe level trough digs into the Great Lakes, there will be two actual cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley and the mountains. The first will carry the primary line of convection with it, and the second will be the main player in ushering in the Canadian airmass. SPC carries the slight risk for the bulk of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, but the instability profiles suggest that the best chances for thunder will exist before 02Z, as CAPE drops off sharply into the Tuesday night period. Better low level jet dynamics exist further north and east, but the NAM is hinting at a modest streak pushing in from the west. Coarse NAM also indicates good large scale ascent in the upper levels of the atmosphere in the right rear quadrant of the 300mb jet for the northwestern zones. Airmass changing flow out of the northwest moves into southwest Ohio after 06Z Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 AM Monday... 850mb temperatures drop 7-9C in the wake of the cold fronts, taking temperatures for the lowlands back into the mid to upper 70s for the end of the week. Dominant ridge/trough pattern from the western to eastern CONUS will continue to shape the weather through the extended. Surface high keeps the bulk of the long term dry, with chances slightly increasing for day 6 and 7. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z Monday thru 12Z Tuesday... As of 1005 AM Monday... Weak high pressure prevails thru tonight. An isolated shower this afternoon is possible across the northern mountains. IFR fog will mainly be in the more protected valleys after 09Z. Winds light and variable. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary based mainly on clouds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/JW SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV/JW

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