Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212302 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 602 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm Monday and then strong cold front crosses Monday night with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Sunday... Warm front will drift to our north by early Monday morning and pull any light rain to the north with it. We will be well within the stable warm sector tomorrow and forecast soundings are pretty dry with may just some cirrus across the region. Current thinking as that we will at least see filtered sunshine and with the strong SW return flow, temperatures will soar by Monday afternoon. Have bumped highs up a few degrees from previous forecast, with most of the area in the upper 60s to possibly 70 degrees. Clouds and precip chances will increase across the Ohio Valley late in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the west. Models have slowed down a bit on the arrival of PoPs across SE Ohio. Held off bringing likely PoP into our western zones until the very end of the near term period, at around 23Z. Also, bumped up wind gusts tomorrow afternoon. Although strongest gusts hold off until early Tuesday morning with FROPA and post frontal, we should still mix down some 15 to 20 mph gusts across the Lowlands out ahead of the front for a period tomorrow afternoon. Although models show strong forcing in the mid to upper levels as seen in the h500 vorticity charts && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... A strong cold front passes Monday night. Models show a mature low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region from the southwest, while a strong cold front trails southeast of the low. In addition, models show h850 winds reaching 50-60 knots ahead of the cold front. The front will arrive after dark lacking of heating, and bouyancy, but under a high deep layered shear environment. Therefore, the front should bring moderate showers accompanied by strong gusty winds to produce from 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall Monday night. The chances of thunderstorms are low with this front. In fact, SPC have the area under a general thunderstorm possible. By Tuesday, the wrap around moisture of the cyclone could produce some precipitation across northern portions of southeast OH and WV. The flow turns northwest allowing moisture from Lake Michigan to reach the area Tuesday night. It will be cold enough for all pcpn to transition to all snow Tuesday night. Expect light snow accumulations as the column will lack of a dendrite growth zone. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Models suggest a series of mid level open short waves will cross the area from west to east by mid week. Under west to northwest flow, moisture from Lake Michigan could continue snow showers mainly over the northern WV, portions of southeast OH with an upslope enhancement over our northeast mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Another warm up is expected as boundary layer winds return from the southwest by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 600 PM Sunday... A warm front will provide some MVFR clouds and possibly some patches of light rain over northern WV and southeast OH overnight, with generally VFR conditions south of this area. The warm front will push north of the area by Monday, with VFR conditions expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR clouds and any light rain over northern WV and southeastern OH could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H L H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M H L L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR possible Monday night in rain showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

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