Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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046 FXUS61 KRLX 291923 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm southerly flow through the weekend. Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 128 PM Saturday... Precipitation last night and earlier today most likely moistened the atmosphere further south than the models are indicating. It also left lots of boundaries, some of which are currently obvious on radar and satellite. Therefore will raise pops a bit this afternoon, more than models would indicate. After afternoon/evening precipitation dies off, not much expected in the way of precipitation tonight. Soundings on Sunday indicate that storms will once again have to battle off dry air entrainment to get started. With a bit more moisture available over southeast Ohio and northern WV, will raise pops a bit there. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Saturday... Cold front pushes through Monday with showers/storms. Front should be progressive as to not cause much water concerns despite wet grounds across southeast Ohio and northern WV. A Much fresher and cooler airmass arrives behind the front for Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Saturday... Uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the mid/late week omega block across the country. Models continue to waffle regarding whether a developing low pressure system across the MS Valley remains connected to the westerlies or if it cuts off across the southeast states. This will play a significant determining factor to the sensible weather across our area, with temps and amount of rainfall. As a result, did not stray much at all from Superblend.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 128 PM Saturday... Outside of some scattered mainly afternoon/early evening thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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