Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270040 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 740 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV WHILE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA INTO CRW OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO CLARKSBURG AREA. WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME. WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE THURSDAY. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST WITH MOST PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS THE WESTERN SITES LIKE PKB...HTS...AND CRW WHILE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AS LONG AS LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS CKB...EKN AND BKW. MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT LOW TO HIGHER LEVELS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV NEARBY HTS AND CRW OVERNIGHT PERHAPS IMPROVING CEILINGS TO MVFR OR VFR WHILE THE NORTHERN SITES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS REMAINS MVFR/IFR. TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL. BY 15Z...THE NAM SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH PERHAPS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN SITES TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO CLARKSBURG AREA. WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME. WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN LATER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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