Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311516 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1116 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDING WITH LATEST DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. REMOVED THUNDER AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF LIGHTNING UNDER AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN. EMBEDDED SHOWERS COULD BECOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WV. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD REACH 0.5 INCHES PER HOURS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPDATE... NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING. THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN. MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR UNDER LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT HTS...TO MOVE OVER CRW BY 18-20Z. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL WV THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TSRA FOR CRW...CKB...AND BKW...AND VCTS/CB FOR THE REST OF SITES AFTER 18Z. EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY. EXTEND OF POST RAIN AND SUBSIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS COULD VARY FROM SITE TO SITE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...26

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