Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291258 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 858 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front arrives thursday with showers and cooler air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM update... added slight chance of thunder across southeast Ohio and northeast KY this morning. Otherwise...no changes were necessary in the update. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Mainly high clouds will continue to overspread the area into the morning hours as the upper trof entrains some upper level moisture from Bonnie. Models agree on breaking off a piece of the mid level energy associated with Bonnie and sending it northward into NC/VA today...keeping the greatest coverage of shra just to the east of the mountains. Elected to cap pops in the 50ish range in the Northern mountains for this reason. Elsewhere it is a bit difficult to determine coverage of any shra/tsra today as the area gets the squeeze play between the piece of Bonnie and the approaching upper level trof. Near term hi res models continue to generate some early morning shra along the mid level moisture axis that has remained over KY/OH the past few days. This axis shifts eastward across E KY/E OH this morning and into WV this aftn as the s/w trof pivots into the upper OH Valley. Have raised pops a bit from previous fcst across SE OH/NE KY/W WV midday to early aftn as a result...still capping in the chance category. With an abundance of high clouds overhead...thinking thunder chances will be tempered...especially across the mountains. Highs today should be a good 5 degrees lower with the mid/high level clouds overhead. For tonight the lagging cold front looks to enter the area with little fanfare other than a wind shift and mainly aloft.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With the remnants of the tropical system and its rich moisture staying east of our area...the weak cool front forecast by the models to move across Monday morning will not have much moisture to work with. Lack of upper support and moisture...combined with unfavorable time of day...will result in essentially a dry front as it moves across Monday. Only in the mountains do we hang onto very low pops Monday...where there may be some last minute heating and slightly better moisture before the front moves across. Behind the front...lack of cold advection and increased sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s Monday. Thereafter...high pressure will bring dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will continue in the 80s...as continued sunshine helps to boost temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High clouds will continue to overspread the area from the SW into the morning hours. As a result dense fog should be confined to the Northern mountain valleys to include KEKN. Appears a brief window of mainly MVFR fog for KPKB/KHTS before the high clouds thicken by 09z. Did put a tempo IFR at KPKB until 08z given recent trends. Isolate showers this morning are possible across E OH/NE KY as mid level moisture axis shifts E with the approaching S/W trof. Thinking they will remain W of KHTS/KPKB this morning before regenerating with heating midday over the area. Elected to roll with VCTS at aforementioned sites as well as KCRW for a few hours this aftn. Bulk of the shra with loosely associated energy with Bonnie will remain E of the mountains today...but still chances high enough to give a VCSH mention at KEKN. Thunder chances look minimal there. The S/W trof pivots thru the area tonight with the lagging cold front crossing overnight with little fanfare other than a wind shift to NW...mainly aloft. There may be some dense river valley fog forming late tonight should enough clearing take place. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of shra and tsra remains in question today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30 NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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