Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300538 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WITH STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. A NEW FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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130 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW NEAR 35KFT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE UPDRAFTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN WV AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEP PW PLUME WILL HELP TO CAUSE DOWNPOURS AGAIN...SO WATCHING WATER IS ANOTHER CONCERN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE CAN HAVE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. LUCKILY MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY...AND TRAINING IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE AN ISSUE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE GFS/NAM MODELS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DECREASING SOME AT NIGHT WHILE THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY. PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES DONT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING KEPT LOW POPS AT NIGHT. THE STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX PASSING BY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND CLOSER TO THE GFS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT AT AND AFTER DAY 3. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OFF...WITH ISOLD -SHRA REMAINING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCKB TO KCRW...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH SUCH AS AT SITES KPKB AND KCKB...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOG ELSEWHERE. EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 13Z...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE LONGER. CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JW NEAR TERM...SL/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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