Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280546 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low brings unsettled weather to the area Wednesday and remains in the area through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1045 PM Tuesday... Cool and dry night tonight with dew points in the 30s. Such low dew points will make it difficult to get fog outside of river valleys. In fact, temperatures may sink into the upper 30s in our higher mountain locations making frost a possibility. At this time do not think it will be quite cold enough, but it will be something to watch overnight. A closed upper level low will move over the CWA Wednesday. This low will bring unsettled weather to the area mainly in the form of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... As has been advertised over the past few days...our weather will be dictated by an anomalous deep upper low dropping south from the Great Lakes. This upper low gradually becomes cutoff by Friday over KY. Rounds of shra and even tsra can be expected thru the period...enhanced by diurnally driven instability amid steep low level lapse rates. Timing these spokes of energy is challenging but enough model agreement for some detail in the POP grids exists. It appears greatest chances for precip will be across the northern half of the CWA and concentrated in the Thursday and Friday time frame. All in all a much welcomed pattern that should give many some beneficial rain. Temps thru the period will run several degrees below average for day time highs...which is quite the reversal over the last several weeks. In fact...some areas in NE KY and W WV may struggle to reach the 60 degree mark Thursday and Friday given the proximity to the significant cold pool and expected shra. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... The pesky upper low will gradually track north over the weekend...with less of an influence on the sensible weather as the days progress. This will result in a dry pattern taking hold again with temperatures moderating to normal and eventually above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Wednesday... Most areas should remain VFR with light surface winds overnight...although local IFR/LIFR valley fog is possible...generally after 08Z...in favored river valleys...impacting sites such as KCRW and KEKN. Any fog will burn off after 13Z...for a return of VFR conditions area wide. South to southeasterly winds today...with occasional gusts in the teens. Clouds will increase during the period...but should remain mostly VFR...with the exception of along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain...where the possibility exists for MVFR cigs and vsbys to develop in moist southeasterly flow...generally after 00Z. -shra will move into the area generally after 23Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight may be more widespread if temps drop far enough and dew points keep jumping. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L M H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MPK/30 AVIATION...SL

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