Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241047 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 350 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers today through Thursday. Unsettled again for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Sfc low pressure system over KY and TN will move north into the OH Valley through tonight. A series of mid level shortwaves rotating around the upper low will produce unstable conditions for showers or storms to develop mainly across southeast OH and over the eastern mountains. Abundant cloudiness will keep temperatures in the 70s this afternoon and into the 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... Upper low will be overhead on Thursday with scattered showers expected. An isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question with the cold temps aloft, but overall thunder threat is quite low. Ridging builds into the region by Friday morning and will briefly dry us out as warmer temperatures return as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... The pattern is starting to take shape for Memorial Day weekend and the potential for severe thunderstorms is growing. A stationary boundary will set up from west to east across the area and current guidance is indicating several short waves moving through the zonal flow Saturday and Sunday. Deep southwesterly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will bring a warm and moist airmass into the region. Both the Euro and GFS indicate a plume of high mid level lapse rates moving into the area on the zonal westerly flow Saturday afternoon. BUFkit soundings in the GFS indicate this EML on Saturday with very high CAPE values on forecast soundings in the order of 2000 to 2500 J/Kg and 700mb to 500mb lapse rates around 8C/km. The uncertainty lies on timing of a short wave in order to break a decent Cap and tap into this unstable air. Confidence is still rather low due to timing disagreement between the models with the arrival of the short wave. However, I think there is at least enough ingredients in place that it warrants mention here that a severe outbreak is possible. Also, instability does weaken by Sunday but strong 0-6 km bulk shear with the passing of a cold front could produce severe storms as well. Finally, PWATs will be on the rise this weekend and GEFS indicates values about 2 standard deviations above normal. With the potential for thunderstorms and low flash flood guidance values due to rains today and on Thursday, there will be potential for flash flooding to occur. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Radar show areas of rain moving northeast across the tri state area, and another batch across the northeast mountains. Expect mostly MVFR conditions with very brief IFR/LIFR along with the rain. Bufkit soundings suggest saturation at the lower levels at PKB, CRW, HTS and BKW by 07-08Z.A low stratus deck is expected to develop overnight across most sites. Conditions could improve to VFR/MVFR in the morning by 14Z. But the environment will remain unsettled through Sunday with the passage of a low pressure system. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain could vary. May need to be more aggressive with IFR or LIFR tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Upper level low keeps IFR chances in play through Thursday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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