Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180540 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1240 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low keeps clouds in place today. Active pattern continues, with a warm front crossing Friday, and then a stronger low pressure system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Wednesday... Cold front has exited to the east, taking any showers with it. Attention now turns to 500mb low which will cross the upper Ohio River Valley through this morning. This feature will keeps lots of low clouds in place through much of the day. Also expect some rain showers and/or areas of drizzle through mid morning. Some of this could be light snow late today at the highest elevations as 850mb temps drop below freezing after 12Z. QPF is pretty limited so only have a tenth or two of accumulation along the highest ridges. 850mb temps should bottom out around 15Z and then start warming, so any lingering precipitation should taper off through the afternoon. In the trapped low level moisture, clouds will linger longer -- through much of the afternoon across the south, and through much of tonight farther north. Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, but still mainly above normal with lowland highs in the 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will generally be just above freezing...and likely the coolest night through this forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Tuesday... Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion may keep stratus / low stratocu around into Thursday across the north. By the time the low clouds break up, higher clouds will be on the increase, in response to an upper level negatively tilted short wave trough approaching from the southwest. This system, an upper level low over the desert southwest this afternoon, opens up as it lifts through the area Thursday night and Friday. Models disagree on the onset of the rain late Thursday, but another decent rain will keep area soils soggy. With the short wave trough lifting through a ridge position near the east coast, short wave ridging quickly builds in its wake Friday night, and the system is largely tantamount to a big warm front. This will leave friday night mild, with areas of low cloud and fog. No important deviations from guidance temperatures, above normal and nearly entirely above freezing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 PM Tuesday... Area begins this period under large scale ridging on Saturday, but this ridge is quickly shunted to the east, as a big piece of energy from the long wave trough position out west pushes east, toward the area. This system begins as a large upper level low, that then opens up into a short wave trough as it lifts out through the area Monday-Tuesday. This is likely to bring rain showers back into the area on Sunday. These showers may become rather chaotic in coverage by Monday given we have an aging upper low that then opens up and weakens. Given model concurrence of the amplitude of the system, an HWO heads up may be considered for wind and rain, mainly as the system initially moves into the area. The weather dries out Tuesday as the system exits to the northeast. Temperatures close to guidance, and continuing above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1235 AM Wednesday... Cold front has exited to the east, and will have NW winds through most of the TAF period. Upper level low crosses the upper Ohio River Valley through mid morning, with low stratus all day and some showers/light rain/drizzle through this morning. Have generally MVFR ceilings, however there could be IFR. Clouds should slowly break up from south to north this evening into tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing MVFR / IFR ceilings may vary, and may start to lift Wednesday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 01/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H M M L M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.