Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230113 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 913 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low lingers around the mid Atlantic states into Monday. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys later Monday into Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week with showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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830 pm update. Lingered showers a few more hours early tonight... especially east of the Ohio River. Previous discussion... Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and early evening showers and tstorms. Precipitable water around 0.75 inch...so showers should not be very heavy. Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low. May see some patchy fog overnight with saturated lower atmosphere. Monday afternoon may see another round of showers, but think these will be even more widely scattered than this afternoons round as upper level forcing moves off to the east and CAPE minimizes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Not too much going on in the short term with high pressure building into the region. Temperatures will start to rise as ridging and southwesterly return flow starts to bring warm tropical air mass overhead. Although...moisture will be on the increase on...with dew points starting to climb into the low 60s by the afternoon...it appears that showers and thunderstorms may hold off. For now I went with a model consensus and bring slight chance to low chance PoP into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. However...the greater influx of moisture will take place during the long term period starting on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S. Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be monitored closely. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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00z Monday thru 00z Tuesday... Upper level low will slowly drop southeast thru the Mid Atlantic States tonight...to just off the North Carolina coast by Monday afternoon. Its broad circulation will slowly release its grip on the area. Look for widely scattered showers in the west to end this evening...and more numerous showers in the east to mostly end after midnight. Look for scattered mainly afternoon showers mostly in the mountains monday afternoon. Thru 04z...VFR outside of lingering showers. After 05z...expect more river valley fog tonight than last night...as clouds decrease winds become very light to near calm...and earlier rains keep the ground saturated. thus...expect some fog to develop at the major terminals...with ifr at crw...ekn...pkb mainly 06z-12z. After 12z...becoming vfr sct-bkn clouds abv 4000 feet outside mountains by 14z...and vfr ceilings in mountains by 17z with just a few rain showers redeveloping. north winds 5 to 10 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: low on fog tonight...depends on clouds and how quickly winds decouple. otherwise...medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread dense fog if clearing and calm winds occur sooner. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/23/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV/JW SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JMV

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