Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271830 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 123 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY. USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD. FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY. CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW. IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER WV MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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