Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290739 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 339 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level troughiness will keep the weather somewhat unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Widespread low clouds and fog are likely to take most if not all of the morning to burn off and lift out. Next in a series of upper level short wave troughs crosses southern portions of the area midday and this afternoon. Hence PoPs increase from the southwest. This short wave is out ahead of main trough axis, which itself approaches the forecast area late today and tonight. Forcing associated with it enters the middle Ohio Valley toward this evening, so associated convection approaching late today will tend to diminish over the middle Ohio Valley as the sun sets. Nonetheless, will carry a chance overnight as the feature generates some low level convergence as it crosses. PW values approaching two inches with these features, and overall light deep layer flow, support locally heavy downpours. With the light flow, and modest heating today, the threat for severe weather is limited. Temperatures close to inherited forecast and current guidance, except used the MET to lower highs south a bit, based on the short wave trough further limiting opportunity for sunshine and heating there.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest in the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Using a combination of WPC and CONSENSus models...indicated building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread IFR or worse conditions overnight into Friday morning, although there is variation as to whether the ceilings or the visibilities are IFR at east through 09-10Z, after which time dense fog should be more predominate. After sunrise, the fog will slowly thin out and lift into stratus and then MVFR stratocu. This will take most or all of Friday morning before a 4-5 kft cu field predominates for Friday afternoon. The next in a series of frequent upper level short wave troughs will combine with whatever daytime heating that can be mustered after burning off the morning low clouds to produce showers and thunderstorms in the area Friday afternoon, coverage too low to mention in the TAFs. Fog is likely to begin forming again by 06z Saturday. Light and variable surface flow will continue beneath light northwest flow aloft, which will become light west late Friday. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing settling in of low stratus and dense fog may vary a few hours depending on timing exodus of mid deck overhead. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and / or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms mainly but not exclusively in the afternoons and evenings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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