Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100009 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 755 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEW POINT GRADIENT IN WEST VIRGINIA WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROF IN WESTERN OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOOKS LIKE TWO SEPARATE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. GOT A DEWPOINT FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 50S BEHIND IT AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BACK IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA. BEHIND THAT IS A WIND SHIFT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO IT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA...WILL BECOME HARDER TO DISTINGUISH AS THE WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE THESE NORTHWESTERLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS WITH THIS COLD FRONT BACK IN OH/IN. MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION...PERHAPS JUST SHOWERS...WITH IT INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALREADY MAKING CONVECTION DIFFICULT...AS IS A MID LEVEL CAP. WILL NOT PREVENT CONVECTION ALTOGETHER...AND SEE IN OUR AREA NOW SOME SHOWERS PULSING UP IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. LEANED HEAVILY ON MOISTURE DEPTH IN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR POPS...AND DO NOT CARRY ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE INTO TONIGHT. MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CLEAR COMPLETELY TONIGHT BECAUSE OF A MOIST LAYER AROUND 4-6KFT...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PAVE THE WAY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFF TO THE WEST WILL DO SO AS WELL FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE...AND ONLY LEAVE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS MOVING OVERALL IS COOLER AND DRIER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS...MOVING THE MOISTURE IN ON SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS AND SREF ALL INDICATE IT WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME POPS ON SATURDAY. WITH NAM SHOWING THIS IS POSSIBLE...WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR SUNDAY...AS A SYSTEM PROVIDES DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELIED ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT CONCERNING FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MID LEVEL TROF IS STILL IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOST MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AT 850 MBS. ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL VORT MAX STILL CROSSING SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE ON THURSDAY. SO CLOUDS AT 4 TO 7 THSD FT MAY REFORM IN PLACES EVEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT...COMPOUNDING THE FOG FORMATION. WETTEST GROUND IS IN THE NORTH...BUT THE DEW POINT GRADIENT FRONT IS NEAR CRW AROUND 00Z...WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE SE AND S OF CRW. WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WILL TRY TO FORM THE FOG FIRST OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...AND MAY EVEN LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BECKLEY OVERNIGHT. SO WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH BKW GIVING SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN VARIABLE FOG. WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE WEST AND NORTH...TRIED TO DELAY ANY FORMATION OF FOG COMPARED TO 18Z TAFS...SO LIMITING DURATION...THIS INCLUDES PKB AND HTS. OTHERWISE...HAVE MOSTLY VFR AFTER 13Z THURSDAY...EXCEPT SOME 2 THSD FT CEILINGS MAY FORM AFTER THE VALLEY FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BKW VCNTY BEFORE LIFTING INTO 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AFTER 14Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT 05Z THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/10/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M H L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H L L L L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB

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