Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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116 FXUS61 KRLX 251830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 130 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Turning colder for the rest of this weekend. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 PM Saturday... Cold front will continue to move east and out of the area late this afternoon. Rain showers will exit as well. Much colder air is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with temperatures dipping into the 20s over much of the area...with some teens in the colder valleys of the northern mountains. H500 trof will swing through tonight. This will keep the chance for snow showers or flurries with brisk WNW winds in the forecast for upslope areas of our eastern mountains overnight tonight. High pressure quickly builds over the area tomorrow bringing plenty of sunshine, but much cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Saturday... A tranquil period under Canadian high pressure brings plenty of sunshine and near normal temperatures to end the weekend. Look for highs in the 40s sunday and lows in the 30s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 AM Saturday... A zonal flow pattern aloft prevails through mid week. Within this zonal flow, there will be a northern stream along the Canadian border which will keep the cold air bottled up in Canada. Our weather into Thursday will be dominated by a southern stream flow of upper disturbances lifting out of the southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio valley and Mid Atlantic states. Models agree with this pattern, although there are some timing and identification differences in the individual disturbances. Thus, we take a broad brush approach with on and off rain showers Monday through Wednesday. We will be in the warm sector with a good southerly flow, bringing temps to well above normal through Wednesday. Have left thunder out for now given all the clouds and showers, limiting instability. Finally, the upper flow amplifies by Thursday and drives a cold front across the area with more rain showers. Behind the front, look for a cool down for the end of work week with temps getting back to near normal by Friday. There maybe some post frontal showers Friday, with snow showers mainly in the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 pM Saturday... Cold front over the eastern mountains of WV will continue to move eastward and exit the region this afternoon. Showers associated with it will exit as well. Upper level trof will swing through tonight. This will keep mainly MVFR cigs over northern portions of the area from a line from PKB to EKN and areas North. VFR cigs south. Winds the rest of this afternoon will continue out of the WNW between 10-15kts gusting to 25kts the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. Brief MVFR/IFR vsbys in snow showers are possible over the Northern WV mountains overnight. High pressure builds in across the region early Sunday morning from W to E. VFR cigs and diminishing winds will be the norm during the day on Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR Cigs and Vsbys may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H L M M H M L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.