Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041806 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 206 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK 500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST. AS A RESULT... HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE. .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK 500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST. AS A RESULT... HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY. THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER. CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL... BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR WORSE FG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST. ANY FG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS IS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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