Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291725 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 125 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND H850 SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. H500 CHARTS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH ACROSS PA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST OH BY 03Z...SPREADING EAST ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z THE BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT...AND GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS IN QPF FIELDS FROM OTHER MODELS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NAM MODEL SUPPORTS THIS REASONING SHOWING 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT H850. BELIEVE ANY SHOWER COULD MIX DOWN A FRACTION OF THESE WINDS ALONG THEIR PATH. MODELS SUGGEST H850 FREEZING LEVEL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE TO CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE. BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIMES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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