Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192352 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 652 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WITH COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT PROVIDES A BRIEF SHOT OF RENEWED COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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645 PM UPDATE... RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT THIS EVENING. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... THE SUN...COMBINED WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB MODERATING OUR ARCTIC AIR...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE INTO SE OHIO AHEAD OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING BY. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THEN SPREADING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE UP TO AN INCH HIGHER UP. 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER THEY ARE ABOUT AT THE PEAK NOW...AND THEN WILL BEGIN DROPPING AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE CLIPPER DRIVES SOME COOLER AIR IN. UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW STRONG INVERSION...SO INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY...ANTICIPATING A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO KEPT SOME FLURRIES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE COLDER AIR OOZING IN...SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLAKES FROM THE LOW CLOUDS. WENT A TOUCH WARMER BY LEANING TOWARD THE MET TONIGHT...WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN WENT JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...AS MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT A BAD WX TREND LEADING UP TOWARD THANKSGIVING WITH NO MAJOR STORMS. BOARD RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING NE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL RISE SLIGHTLY OVER CWA. KEEPING MOST OF CWA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SW TO NE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREDAWN FOR MOST COUNTIES...AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. WILL HOLD POCAHONTAS COUNTY COLDER. AT THIS POINT...NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONS TO OUR EMPTY HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE TRENDS A FEW HOURS FASTER...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE HIGHER FOR POCAHONTAS. CURRENTLY...ONLY HAVE A HOUR OR SO OF MENTIONING THAT POSSIBILITY. 500 MB TROF REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING EVE. FROM THE WV DEER PERSPECTIVE...UNFORTUNATELY A MILDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HUNTERS ON MONDAY. EVEN LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DAWN MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE S OR SW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRUSHES BY OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATOCU AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FOR THU...AND ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATOCU DECK HANGING TOUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...LIFTING TO VFR FOR THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN TO MORE W LATE OVERNIGHT...AND BE GUSTY ON THU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS COULD VARY. BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS THU MORNING. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO VARY...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THU MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM

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