Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011431 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS THEY DRIFT NW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE. THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT. HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY. KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH. BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND 14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING COULD ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...JMV

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