Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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620 FXUS61 KRLX 221948 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 324 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east Tuesday/Tuesday night. Upper level low brings chances of showers Wednesday into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Did introduce slightly more cloud cover in the sky grids to account for lingering clouds and streaming cirrus. Otherwise, forecast is on track. As of 1050 AM Monday... Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio River with the best chance of showers in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 324 PM Monday... A weak low pressure system will move off to the east Tuesday night as a slow moving upper level low pressure system approaches from the west. This upper level system will bring a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, providing a band of showers and thunderstorms. The front will be followed by the upper low on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 324 PM Monday... Showers should end on Friday as the upper level low pulls off. The dry weather will be brief however, as the models are showing a warm front for Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, some considerable differences exist in the models, so confidence in the forecast declines.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Monday... Still watching clouds slowly scatter and lift as high pressure builds into the area. Pockets of gusty winds remain this afternoon, but should subside as the pressure gradient relaxes. Expecting mainly high cirrus for the remainder of the day. Overnight, concern is with fog development in river valleys. Guidance this morning has remained conservative, particularly near KEKN, and there is uncertainty with the current forecast as to lowest vsby expected and northward extent of fog development. Introduced a few hours of MVFR fog at KHTS/KCRW/KPKB and borderline IFR at KCKB. At KEKN, expecting at least some IFR fog starting around or after 23/06Z. In addition to fog, an approaching low to our south will promote gradually lowering cigs after 23/06Z, particularly in the mountains. Didn`t quite bring KEKN or KBKW to MVFR, but timing may vary, especially if SHRA materializes earlier than anticipated. Expect SHRA to move into southern and eastern terminals around or after 23/12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through tonight, then medium for fog and cigs by Tuesday morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...DTC

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