Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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943 FXUS61 KRLX 031519 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1119 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY... LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 14Z EXTENDING FROM A CKB-CRW-HTS-CVG LINE WILL SLOWLY LOSE DEFINITION AS WINDS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER KENTUCKY AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THRU 12Z...BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN UNDER THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIFT THE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO MAINLY VFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 21Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO ALSO BRING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS AND MVFR/IFR TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL EVALUATE THIS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT. AND IN TURN...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE GREATER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV/MPK

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