Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161814 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 213 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...AND STAYS IN CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY...BECOMING WEAKER FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS NOTICED IN H5 CHARTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEAR CALM FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE NAMDNG5 WITH FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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QUIET WX REGIME TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK AS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL NW FLOW. THERE WILL BE SOME STRATOCU AROUND AT TIMES...MOSTLY DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SE BY FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE A WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFICATION AND COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THIS FEATURE SO THAT SUNDAY MAY END UP STAYING DRY UNTIL LATE. DELAYED POPS AND CLOUDS AS A RESULT. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THRU AND THE TROF SETTLES IN...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL SHOT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STARTING TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS HAS PERSISTED...COMBINED WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...SHOULD LOSE THE BULK OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 19Z AND BEFORE 22Z AS THE SKY BEGINS TO SLOWLY CLEAR AS WE HEAD TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG. DROP ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 06Z. FOG MIXES OUT AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY TO VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING OF THE MVFR COULD VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H M M M M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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