Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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200 FXUS61 KRLX 240612 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 212 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday. A much stronger cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 210 AM Saturday... No significant changes needed. As of 1050 PM Friday... No significant changes made...tweaked temps based on current obs and trends. As of 100 PM Friday... A weak cold front will move southward into the area late tonight and Saturday. Moisture and dynamics are limited with the front...so showers only possible during the daytime heating hours on Saturday. Will continue to go above MOS guidance south of the cold front on Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1225 PM Friday... A weak cold front will sag and stall over the southern portion of the area and become non-existent. Mostly clouds will be associated with it. Only difference will be the cooler air behind it will filter in for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to move into the area by late in the afternoon on Monday and continue to cross the area Monday night. Moisture is lacking and should only see convection with the front as it passes. Temps will be noticeably cooler throughout. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12:25 pm Friday... Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it. Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures are expected as well. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 210 AM Saturday... Areas of valley fog were beginning to form ahead of the pace from last night. EKN will vary in and out of IFR with brief periods of VLIFR while PKB could see MVFR mist. Other sites are likely to remain VFR but river valley fog will be near by. A cold front approaching from the north will bring clouds toward dawn, which will cause any fog across northern WV and east-central Ohio to dissipate early. The front will bring patchy high stratocu and low altocu Saturday and Saturday night, with a sprinkle or light shower possible, mainly Saturday afternoon. Any rain should not produce meaningful flight restrictions. The clouds Saturday night will likely hinder fog formation, which should not occur until after 06Z Sunday anyway. However, the stratocu may lower to MVFR across at least the northern WV mountains Saturday night. Surface flow will be light and variable ahead of the front overnight, and then become light northwest behind the front on Saturday, and then veering toward northeast Saturday night before going calm. Flow aloft will be light northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could vary. There may be a bit more fog at PKB, CKB, HTS or CRW. MVFR stratocu at EKN tonight may not happen or take longer to happen than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M L M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Low stratus possible Monday night, then morning valley fog possible next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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