Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241810 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 210 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. Cold front approaches late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Wednesday... Generally quiet for the remainder of the afternoon with just some flat cu with some cirrus thrown in for good measure. For tonight we will be tracking a mid level feature moving across the area. Models are by and large in agreement on any line of shra/tsra weakening on approach. So...will continue with previous forecast idea of chance pops and roll with coverage wording. With this feature moving across with some clouds amid a strengthening low level flow...dense fog should be confined to the more sheltered mountain valleys and hollows. This disturbance moves E of the area by midday Thursday with mid level drying left in its wake to keep things warm and primarily dry for the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... Hot and humid weather returns to the region in the short term period...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Still looking at a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday...particularly across the north...as a disturbance moves through. Some storms could contain rather gusty winds...mainly across the north...as winds aloft strengthen to 30-40 kts. Greater risk for severe/strong storms will lie just to the north of the cwa however. Surface frontal boundary...associated with surface low moving east across Canada...will sag south into the region later in the day Friday. Still uncertainty with timing...and how far south frontal boundary will trek...with the possibility that the front will stall out or wash out across the CWA. There will be little forcing associated with the front...and expecting mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms...mainly during peak heating hours. Somewhat drier/less humid air may filter in across the north for Saturday behind the front...but looking like at least southern 2/3 of CWA will continue to remain socked in with higher humidity. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM Tuesday... Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped PoPs in the extended though with very little confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 2 PM Wednesday... 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday... VFR thru 00z amid some flat cu and cirrus. After 00z...an upper disturbance from the north and west will keep vfr ceilings 6000-10000 feet up north. There is a small chance for a shower or storm 03 to 09z with this disturbance...primarily for N TAF sites. These VFR ceilings will then spread south and east after 06z to encompass most of the area by 12Z. This feature along with a strengthening low level flow off the deck should keep dense fog confined to KEKN if even there. Aforementioned disturbance shifts E of the area on Thursday for a return to VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...30

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